September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[SACRUS]

 

78 / 65 sunny for now.

[Stormlover74]

Rgem a soaker

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem a soaker

You'd hope we'd get some heavy rain at some point with this humidity sticking around for the rest of the week. 

[FPizz]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem a soaker

CMC 

[Picard]

Clown maps for now.

[steve392]

I'll believe it when my new rain gauge actually shows that.  My backyard is just dust.  

[donsutherland1]

Considering the magnitude of warmth that is likely for the second half of September, the odds are tilted toward a warmer than normal October. It has been a long time since a September 16-30 as warm as this year's will likely be, has been followed by a cool October, even against the 1991-2020 baseline.

CFSv2 Forecast for October 2025:

Current CPC Monthly Outlook:

The most recent ECMWF weekly forecast showed the potential for a cool start to October but very warm conditions in central Canada. So, a warm outcome is not cast in stone, but the combination of the CPC outlook, CFSv2 forecast, and statistical odds suggest that a warmer outcome is more likely than a colder one. Nevertheless, the highest odds of a warmer than normal outcome are probably in the western half of the CONUS and Canada.

[Stormlover74]

Euro wetter again

[WestBabylonWeather]

It’s not going to rain is it. 

[steve392]

80 degree's in Mahwah and just feels so disgusting out.  

[SACRUS]

 

84 /66 here

[psv88]

81/68. Summer says I’m not completely dead yet 

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

81/68. Summer says I’m not completely dead yet 

zero cold intrusions on anything for the next two weeks

[lee59]

79 the high here today

[IrishRob17]

56 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

zero cold intrusions on anything for the next two weeks

Hoodies remain in hibernation and shorts stay in regular rotation. 

[winterwx21]

85 with a dewpoint of 64 here right now. Feels like late August rather than late September. 

[donsutherland1]

Much of the region saw the mercury rise into the 80s today. The warmth will be trimmed in coming days.

A weak cool front will trigger some scattered showers overnight. Afterward, the front will stall near the region tomorrow. 

Several waves of low pressure will move along the front bringing showers and rain Thursday from Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely during this period. Some locations cuold see higher amounts in excess of 2.00".

Above normal temperatures will continue through at least the coming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +2.50 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.151 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.6° (0.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[uofmiami]

80.5 in Muttontown & 80.2 in Syosset today. 

[the_other_guy]

28 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Hoodies remain in hibernation and shorts stay in regular rotation. 

I mean hoodies and shorts can get you thru mid Dec if youre a dude

[winterwarlock]

86/69/90

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Much of the region saw the mercury rise into the 80s today. The warmth will be trimmed in coming days.

A weak cool front will trigger some scattered showers overnight. Afterward, the front will stall near the region tomorrow. 

Several waves of low pressure will move along the front bringing showers and rain Thursday from Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely during this period. Some locations cuold see higher amounts in excess of 2.00".

Above normal temperatures will continue through at least the coming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +2.50 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.151 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.6° (0.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

Maybe this isn't the last 80s just yet Don?

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

86/69/90

This is much better than 50s with wind, omg I hate that weather.