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September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum


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Considering the magnitude of warmth that is likely for the second half of September, the odds are tilted toward a warmer than normal October. It has been a long time since a September 16-30 as warm as this year's will likely be, has been followed by a cool October, even against the 1991-2020 baseline.

image.thumb.png.e5f82846c6fbd89a8149306c06d443f0.png

CFSv2 Forecast for October 2025:

image.png.130f7435be8d1d0e4400ac2123fa6e8e.png

Current CPC Monthly Outlook:

image.png.775409ef2422d2c672a58048f4447391.png

The most recent ECMWF weekly forecast showed the potential for a cool start to October but very warm conditions in central Canada. So, a warm outcome is not cast in stone, but the combination of the CPC outlook, CFSv2 forecast, and statistical odds suggest that a warmer outcome is more likely than a colder one. Nevertheless, the highest odds of a warmer than normal outcome are probably in the western half of the CONUS and Canada.

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