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O'Brother Septorcher


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Fri/Sat rn turning into more of a showery kind of deal (shocking), maybe tshowers on sat, but frcst calling for ~0.25" won't do shit. We got 0.75" last Friday and that had almost no positive impact on soil conditions. wake me up when we're looking at a couple days of steady rn, preferably 2+"

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14 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Fri/Sat rn turning into more of a showery kind of deal (shocking), maybe tshowers on sat, but frcst calling for ~0.25" won't do shit. We got 0.75" last Friday and that had almost no positive impact on soil conditions. wake me up when we're looking at a couple days of steady rn, preferably 2+"

I think we'll do more than a quarter inch through the weekend. Probably widespread 0.50-1.00" with the chance for 1"+ in spots. NNE is probably favored, but any rain helps. Gotta start somewhere. 

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4 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Fri/Sat rn turning into more of a showery kind of deal (shocking), maybe tshowers on sat, but frcst calling for ~0.25" won't do shit. We got 0.75" last Friday and that had almost no positive impact on soil conditions. wake me up when we're looking at a couple days of steady rn, preferably 2+"

Eh. The question moreso is why the qpf output on the GFS is so paltry.
 

Everything else on the same run/model points to a good soaking. 
 

GFS is selling well on another bone dry day today but dews really spike throughout the day tomorrow into Saturday. Your bias will change probably when the swamp azz returns…

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Saturday I’ll be at Thunder Over New Hampshire and it looks like it’s going to be as toasty as it was last time. Because we’re part of the STEM exhibit, it’ll also be a long day. I hope any storms don’t impact the flights; people will have been waiting hours in the sun.

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50 minutes ago, radarman said:

some of our better forecasters starting to get bullish on severe possibilities out here on Saturday

I mentioned that the other day. Definitely a lakes region to Berks and SE NY deal perhaps. Gonna need dews as always. Good shear.

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flow looks parallel with/while the trough is weakening in time ... that may be why there's some challenges to QPF totals emerging. waning mechanics. some guidance is faster at doing so. 

in the meantime, the NAM is deep summer in the grid for tomorrow and saturday

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23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

:stein:
IMG_4926.jpeg

I have no clue how we are not even in the abnormally dry down here....even our perennial shrubs are fully wilted with browning leaves and dropping like it is October. Grass is brown and crispy and has been....It won't be long until wells start dropping at this rate

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The stream in our back woods is bone dry…not even a puddle or wet spot. I’ve never seen it like that. The ferns out there are brown. Most trees that are 10-20ft or smaller are wilting. The lawn crunches when walking on it. Hopefully we get a little tonight to moisten up the surface so it can all soak in Sat. 

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