Hurricane Erin: 140 MPH - 935 mb - NW @ 12

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Latest advisory on Erin, no change in intensity.

 

2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 15
Location: 18.6°N 56.8°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

Yeah, no change in winds, but the minimum SLP did drop 3 mb to 993 mb.

[NorthHillsWx]

At present it looks like the track for Erin has ticked west enough to cause the least amount of impacts to land. Bermuda, while not out of the woods, seems to avoid the core on most modeling now as it splits the island and obx

[Eskimo Joe]

Unless I'm seeing things, Erin appears like she's trying to pop an eye.

[Wannabehippie]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unless I'm seeing things, Erin appears like she's trying to pop an eye.

I can't tell if Erin is trying to pop an eye, or if it is the dry air being entrained in.

[Wannabehippie]

26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

At present it looks like the track for Erin has ticked west enough to cause the least amount of impacts to land. Bermuda, while not out of the woods, seems to avoid the core on most modeling now as it splits the island and obx

It is so difficult to get a direct hit on Bermuda. Tiny dot in a big ocean. But everything there is so low lying, even a near miss will cause problems.

[BarryStantonGBP]

Just now, Wannabehippie said:

It is so difficult to get a direct hit on Bermuda. Tiny dot in a big ocean. But everything there is so low lying, even a near miss will cause problems.

Not according to Ernesto, Gonzalo and Humberto 

[Wannabehippie]

29 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Not according to Ernesto, Gonzalo and Humberto 

How many others missed?

[Boston Bulldog]

41 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

It is so difficult to get a direct hit on Bermuda. Tiny dot in a big ocean. But everything there is so low lying, even a near miss will cause problems.

Bermuda is very well protected by cliffs from the south, also it’s a relatively hilly island. Incredible building codes too. Honestly hurricanes are rarely a big deal there

[BarryStantonGBP]

23 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

How many others missed?

Don't know but those three blasted reggaeton on the island 

[BarryStantonGBP]

14 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Bermuda is very well protected by cliffs from the south, also it’s a relatively hilly island. Incredible building codes too. Honestly hurricanes are rarely a big deal there

26 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

How many others missed?

 

[GaWx]

 Any guesses as to what Erin’s total ACE will be? She’s over 4 now.

[Wannabehippie]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Any guesses as to what Erin’s total ACE will be? She’s over 4 now.

Could go pretty high if it gets to sustained cat 4.

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Could go pretty high if it gets to sustained cat 4.

If Erin reaches cat 4 and sustains it for a couple of days or at least on and off, I think that at least getting close to 30 total ACE would be attainable.

 Latest from NHC:

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

Erin continues to slowly become better organized, with convective 
banding increasing near the center and a couple of attempts to form 
an eye.  Earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data did not 
show any increase in winds after the previous advisory, although 
the central pressure fell to near 993 mb.  Satellite intensity 
estimates are in the 60-75 kt range and are gradually increasing. 
The initial intensity is held at 65 kt pending the arrival of the 
next NOAA and Air Force aircraft this evening.
 
The initial motion is 290 to 295 degrees at 15 kt. The subtropical 
ridge to the north will continue to steer Erin west-northwestward 
through the weekend, although the motion during the next 36 h or so 
may be closer to 285 degrees.  After that time, encroaching 
mid-latitude westerly flow is forecast to cause a weakness to 
develop in the ridge, and this will cause Erin to gradually turn 
northward with a decrease in forward speed. The guidance remains in 
fairly good agreement through about 72 hours. After that time, 
there are still differences in both the forward speed and 
cross-track spread with regards the turn toward the north. The 
regional hurricane models again lie along the western edge of the 
guidance envelope, while the GFS remains on the eastern edge.  
Overall, though, there again has been little change in the guidance 
envelope and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from 
the previous track.  

Erin is forecast to be in an environment of light to occasionally 
moderate northwesterly vertical shear and over sea surface 
temperatures that warm to 29-30C along the forecast track. However, 
there is also a large area of mid-level dry and African dust to the 
north of the hurricane, and the satellite appearance suggests Erin 
is ingesting tongues of dry air.  Although the environment may not 
be ideal, the regional hurricane models are in excellent agreement 
that Erin will reach a peak intensity at or above 120 kt during the 
next 2-4 days.  Based on this, the new intensity forecast now calls 
for a peak intensity of 125 kt in 72 h, and it is possible Erin 
could get stronger than this. As the hurricane gets stronger, there 
is a high chance that eyewall replacement cycles will cause 
fluctuations in intensity that are not included in the current 
forecast. It is also expected that Erin will become very large and 
powerful hurricane by the end of the forecast period in the 
southwestern Atlantic, and the current forecast wind radii at 96-120 h may not be large enough.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 18.9N  57.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 19.6N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 20.4N  62.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 21.2N  65.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 22.3N  67.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  18/0600Z 23.4N  68.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 24.8N  69.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 27.9N  70.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 32.2N  69.7W  115 KT 130 MPH

[BarryStantonGBP]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Any guesses as to what Erin’s total ACE will be? She’s over 4 now.

49.3

[BarryStantonGBP]

GCANE S2K Supporter
Posts: 11557 Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

•  

#421 by GCANE » Fri Aug 15, 2025 1:14 pm 

60 hrs out and 75% chance of a Cat4, 35% for Cat5.
Peaks around 8AM Monday north of Hispaniola. 
Right about where the CoC and ULL, driving the poleward outflow channel, are at the same latitude.

 

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

Also why do I keep reading Erin as Eowyn? That slag kept throwing us trampolines in our garden back in January

Kept slagging off bus drivers and pilots 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Bermuda is very well protected by cliffs from the south, also it’s a relatively hilly island. Incredible building codes too. Honestly hurricanes are rarely a big deal there

Also protected by an offshore reef system which mitigates swell action. That and the complete lack of shelf waters means ocean impacts are negligible.

[Wannabehippie]

5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 15
Location: 18.9°N 57.6°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

[WxWatcher007]

Recon approaching for another center pass. We’ll see just how quickly this is intensifying shortly. 

[Wannabehippie]

986mb on first pass of latest recon

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Recon approaching for another center pass. We’ll see just how quickly this is intensifying shortly. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said:

986mb on first pass of latest recon

 

Right. I’m guessing the central pressure has dropped a few mb since then. This looks primed to take off now. 

[WxWatcher007]

981.4mb extrapolated 

[WxWatcher007]

VDM puts it at 984mb

 

[Wannabehippie]

31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

VDM puts it at 984mb

 

In addition to the current NOAA flight in Erin, there is a AF low level flight headed in right now. It looks like the NOAA flight is on the third pass to the center of Erin.
NHC has it at 982 with 85 mph winds.

8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 15
Location: 19.4°N 58.5°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

[Wannabehippie]

On the latest satellite photos it looks like Erin now has a clear eye. Will have to wait for the aircraft recon to confirm.

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Erin getting “the look” now. Lots of dry air nearby to potentially slow this trend, but she’s looking ready to take off. Rotating CBs in the eyewall are a dead giveaway.

I believe data says the eye is a bit bigger than the pinhole it looks to be on satellite, but IR is looking fierce now

[Wannabehippie]

15 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Erin getting “the look” now. Lots of dry air nearby to potentially slow this trend, but she’s looking ready to take off. Rotating CBs in the eyewall are a dead giveaway.

I believe data says the eye is a bit bigger than the pinhole it looks to be on satellite, but IR is looking fierce now

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/787e7361-d0d7-456f-9b78-58c40d09ba5a
Two separate "blobs" but the main center of circulation is the one to the north and east of the other "blob". Bit of dry air entrained in between them. SAL in front of Erin, and SAL behind it as well.

[Boston Bulldog]

I don’t think the dual blob structure is going to preclude Erin’s RI. The southerly mass of thunderstorms should either dissipate or form into a curved band. Even if it doesn’t, we’ve seen powerful hurricanes with a second convective mass such as Matthew. Honestly Matthew was a fascinating storm, I’m sure there are great papers discussing its structure. Not sure what caused it

Very impressed with Erin’s gigantic ventilation right now, the anticyclonic outflow is sprawling across all quadrants 

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

I don’t think the dual blob structure is going to preclude Erin’s RI. The southerly mass of thunderstorms should either dissipate or form into a curved band. Even if it doesn’t, we’ve seen powerful hurricanes with a second convective mass such as Matthew. Honestly Matthew was a fascinating storm, I’m sure there are great papers discussing its structure. Not sure what caused it

Very impressed with Erin’s gigantic ventilation right now, the anticyclonic outflow is sprawling across all quadrants 

Didn't Matthew in (2016?) have that dual blob and it wasn't a big deal against intensification either>