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August 2025 General Discussion


Brian D
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10 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Let's save all the precip for the winter months. Not sure why so many people want severe storm in their backyards.

It’s still brown as hell here in the ever present lake shadow.  I don’t need a severe storm.  ANY storm will do.  

It does seem that severe setups are the best for getting storms to survive Lake Michigan and provide rain.  Garden variety popups and weakly forced MCSs just love to avoid this area.

As for winter, even those have been boring and dry lately.  Lake effect is a nuisance when it only comes 2-3”at a time.

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12 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The big 3-day high-end rain event that was so hyped by NWS and guidance resulted in a paltry 0.57" here.  As per typical the northwest part of the DVN cashed in bigtime though.  That area is way overdue for a run of bad luck in the precip department.

Ended with .36" here, of which .30 fell this morning. Been the summer of near misses IMBY where we are barely keeping drought at bay while areas just north and south are more lush. 

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I picked up .18 in the AM and .47 in the PM so far for a total of .67.   Areas just a little north and west are probably closer to 2 inches.

Quite a bit of rain-free CGs from the tail end of the cell cluster passing to my NW.  Extremely low dark blue-greenish scuddy cloud bases as well.  Sad I didn’t have a chance to film anything.

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Will be interesting to see where meteorological summer finishes up in the NOAA/NCEI statewide rankings. Ohio was in 4th place for June & July, with a mean of 74.5F. The hottest for that period since 1952, which was also 74.5F. Michigan was in a rather more pedestrian 13th place, with a mean of 68.6F (tied with 1931 & 1934).

Through the first 13 days of August, I have the Ohio statewide mean at around 72.5F and Michigan at 70.9F. If those values hold, meteorological summer would come in at 73.8F for Ohio and 69.4F for Michigan. That would be the 4th hottest in both states (in Michigan tied with 1995; and in Ohio, tied with 1901, 1949, 2002 & 2010).

For Ohio, that's 0.7F below the record hot summer of 1934. August's mean would need to come in ~2.1F higher than the current mean just to tie the record - the last 18 days would have to be absolutely blazing. So a record is very unlikely.

For Michigan, however, the estimated current August temperature would yield a summertime mean just 0.2F below the existing record (1955 & 2005 tie), so August's mean would need to increase by ~0.6F to tie the record. Doable, but it would be a tall task as it has already been quite warm the first 13 days. And the last 18 days would need to be about 1F or so warmer to get the full month mean up another 0.6F. So unlikely to tie/break the existing record values, especially with cooler air returning to northern lower Michigan and the UP.

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