August 2025 General Discussion

[TheClimateChanger]

Couple of nice looking storm cells out there tonight. One near Rose City, Michigan, south of Huron National Forest, and one northwest of London, Ontario.

 

[Geoboy645]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The WPC has a moderate chance for excessive rainfall across southeast Iowa, nw Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this weekend.  The forecast has widespread 3-5+ inches across that area.  The discussion even mentions isolated 9" totals are possible.  DVN thinks 10" is possible.

Yeah I'm definitely worried for some potentially significant flooding somewhere in S or SW WI. While it hasn't been as wet as most of IA over the last 30 days, it's still been wet enough to cause concerns even without some of the more extreme totals that models have put out. SW to NE is a bad direction for precip maxes in regards to the drainage network in this part of the state. And 6-10 inches of rain in a night would be very bad news for really any drainage around here.

[Chicago Storm]

Peaked at 92° at ORD and 93° at MDW today.

...2025 90°+ Day Tally...
24 - ORD
24 - MDW
24 - DPA
23 - PWK
22 - ARR
19 - RFD
19 - LOT
14 - UGN

[CheeselandSkies]

CAMs (18Z 3K NAM/0Z HRRR) aren't too enthused about much more than garden variety tomorrow. EHI is pretty low. SPC may have been over-optimistic expanding the slight risk into all of S. WI and adding a 2% tornado contour.

Edit: 0Z 3K NAM is quite a bit more aggressive than the previous couple of runs. Hard to pin anything down with such lack of agreement/consistency.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Biggest hailstones imby since we bought our house in 2018. Did not like the sounds coming off my roof at 5am this morning. 0.59” precipitation with the storm.

 

KMSP 091012Z 18015G22KT 1SM R30L/4500VP6000FT +TSGRRA FEW021 BKN030CB OVC050 22/19 A2984 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS GRB12 GR 1/2 TS OHD MOV NE P0036 T02170189

[TheClimateChanger]

Heat is certainly the big story today. 

At Muskegon, Michigan, the temperature soared to a new daily record of 91F yesterday, surpassing the previous record high of 90F, set in 1900, 1901, and 1941.

Across Michigan, a number of stations exceeded 90F yesterday, with readings as high as 93F at Traverse City, Benton Harbor, and the Match-E-Be-Nash-She-Wish Pottawatomi Tribal Soil & Climate Analysis Network station.

The point-click forecast for Cherry Capital Airport is 97F today! This would break a daily record and come within striking distance of the monthly high of 100F. Certainly stay cool out there in northern Michigan!

 

[Brian D]

Early data in for July. Warmer one in the books after a string of near avg in recent years. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively. 

[cyclone77]

Only 16 days AOA 90 at MLI this year so far (19 here).  Usually not all that far behind Chicago but apparently the majority of the heat has been just east this year.  

Kind of feels like this year we've had a slot of debris clouds spilling eastward from Iowa (like today) co ck-blocking max temp potential.

[cyclone77]

Looks like Iowa's leftover cloud debris screwed over the setup for the nw 2/3 of the DVN cwa.  Will probably have to wait on whatever rolls in late tonight/tomorrow morning from that next round.

[Geoboy645]

It is going to be a long night for S WI for rain/flooding. Already a rare FFW out for Milwaukee and West Allis (On State Fair weekend no less!) with 2.5"+ hrly totals. And WPC just put out a pretty strongly worded MPD for the area.

 

 

[frostfern]

RIP Milwaukee 

[Powerball]

Seems Milwaukee (especially the south side) is really getting a shellacking.

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

It is going to be a long night for S WI for rain/flooding. Already a rare FFW out for Milwaukee and West Allis (On State Fair weekend no less!) with 2.5"+ hrly totals. And WPC just put out a pretty strongly worded MPD for the area.

 

 

Wow, very impressive. I wonder if it might be upgraded to a flash flood emergency?

 

[TheNiño]

2 hours ago, frostfern said:

RIP Milwaukee 

Holy shit! I was driving back to Kenosha from Milwaukee during the tail end of it. Accidents everywhere along 94 from downtown and south. In a 15mi stretch I must have seen 10 accidents if not more. Lanes suddenly blocked with impassible standing water, underpasses flooded (passible but had to idle through), cars spun out and blacked out in the middle of the highway, visibility was absolute garbage… that was a sketchy drive and I definitely shouldn’t have been out there, but as a weather nerd it was still pretty cool to see. Didn’t look like any of the accidents were too serious but none of them had emergency crews on scene yet, so there were just random cars sitting in the middle of the road or crashed against the barriers. The CG was very impressive as well. Glad to be home safely in my bed.

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, very impressive. I wonder if it might be upgraded to a flash flood emergency?

 

Looks like MKE finished with 6.69” of rain. More heavy rain moving in - maybe a 10” two-day total?

[cyclone77]

0.06" worth of anvil rain so far here.  4-5" just west of the QC.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

0.06" worth of anvil rain so far here.  4-5" just west of the QC.

Sounds like you dodged a bullet there. Wow.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like MKE finished with 6.69” of rain. More heavy rain moving in - maybe a 10” two-day total?

Fortunately, the heaviest rain this morning appears to be missing MKE and the city, but additional rain is still likely.

[cyclone77]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Sounds like you dodged a bullet there. Wow.

No doubt.  It is starting to dump pretty good now though.

[Mogget]

So far, we’ve enjoyed a leisurely .7” here, south of Madison.  However, it just started to REALLY dump on us…even my Starlink is struggling…so I think we’re finally going to actually get a good round. 

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday’s 5.74” at Milwaukee was its second highest daily amount on record. Six of the top ten daily rainfalls have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1871.

[hawkeye_wx]

The heavy rain band filled in at the last minute this morning and dumped 1.5-3" across the Cedar Rapids area.  I finished with 1.94".  This was a massive bust for southern Iowa.  Instead of 3-5", as forecasted by the WPC, they got nothing.