August 2025 Summer Thread

[Torch Tiger]

It's finally here, our favorite month, August. 

it seems early month with be dominated by "Coc". Not sure we'll see a return to big #'s, but hopefully some heavy dew days and slow moving tropical rainers to keep Stein at bay. 

And perhaps some TC remnants very late month?  

[CoastalWx]

Let’s dew it

[H2Otown_WX]

6 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

It's finally here, our favorite month, August. 

it seems early month with be dominated by "Coc". Not sure we'll see a return to big #'s, but hopefully some heavy dew days and slow moving tropical rainers to keep Stein at bay. 

And perhaps some TC remnants very late month?  

No, give me an early 2000s August with 40s at night in NNE.

[HoarfrostHubb]

After a bit of a dew-down, humidity will be back!   

90s will of course be harder to get.  

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

After a bit of a dew-down, humidity will be back!   

90s will of course be harder to get.  

I think 90s can easily happen even for you deep into August.  For you, probably a lot tougher after 8/20 and for the rest of us a few weeks later.  I saw a clown range gfs run enveloping almost the whole country inside of 594 heights at H5.  I don’t expect that but it seems plausible that it will continue AOA normal temperatures for August beyond 8/7 or so.

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think 90s can easily happen even for you deep into August.  For you, probably a lot tougher after 8/20 and for the rest of us a few weeks later.  I saw a clown range gfs run enveloping almost the whole country inside of 594 heights at H5.  I don’t expect that but it seems plausible that it will continue AOA normal temperatures for August beyond 8/7 or so.

Yep.  Possible.  But my thinking is that we are moving past the big heat.  
Of course I also thought I wouldn’t get to 90 again this week…. 

[weatherwiz]

For those thinking the heat and humidity is coming to an end, it’s only beginning 

[Torch Tiger]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For those thinking the heat and humidity is coming to an end, it’s only beginning 

Yeah, it's basically January 29th.  Long hot summer continues.  It won't be long before days feel super short and time FLIES by, but right now it's low and slow!

[bristolri_wx]

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah, it's basically January 29th.  Long hot summer continues.  It won't be long before days feel super short and time FLIES by, but right now it's low and slow!

After tomorrow it's likely going to be about two weeks of normal summer.  Warms back up mid month before another norm down.  The CFS and the Euro weeklies seem to be oddly in agreement about this.

[H2Otown_WX]

6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

For those thinking the heat and humidity is coming to an end, it’s only beginning 

If you were fat like me you wouldn't be excited about it

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

After tomorrow it's likely going to be about two weeks of normal summer.  Warms back up mid month before another norm down.  The CFS and the Euro weeklies seem to be oddly in agreement about this.

Good timing....I'll be traveling mid-month.

[tamarack]

19 hours ago, weathafella said:

I think 90s can easily happen even for you deep into August.  For you, probably a lot tougher after 8/20 and for the rest of us a few weeks later.  I saw a clown range gfs run enveloping almost the whole country inside of 594 heights at H5.  I don’t expect that but it seems plausible that it will continue AOA normal temperatures for August beyond 8/7 or so.

We've had only 2 heat waves in our 27+ years here, and 8/13-15 is one (other is 6/25-27/03).  August 2002 had an 8-day run, 11-18, that had an average high of 89 with each day at 87-91.  Wasn't too humid as the lows averaged 58, but our car's AC had conked out (at 204k miles) earlier that month.  Then 9/9-10/02 reached 93/92.  Since then, we've reached 90 eleven times but none later than June 28 - 2 in May and 9 in June.  Odd distribution; maybe the taller dews and busier trees of mid-late summer have held down the max temps.

[weathafella]

Watch for big heat potential 8/9-15.  Could rival late June and yesterday in the pure magnitude.

[Torch Tiger]

a few 95-102 days are common during Ughust and early Septorcher. I checked it years ago, but like 25 or 30% of BOS's high temps are after 8/1

[H2Otown_WX]

42 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

a few 95-102 days are common during Ughust and early Septorcher. I checked it years ago, but like 25 or 30% of BOS's high temps are after 8/1

What date will be BOS last 90? 10/20?

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

What date will be BOS last 90? 10/20?

12/24

Christmas Eve, silly

[CoastalWx]

Another torcher for August shaping up. 

[CoastalWx]

85-90 Monday. 

[weathafella]

And BOS hit 90 close to 9pm last night.

[Typhoon Tip]

so there ...

[Typhoon Tip]

I, for perhaps one, am psyched for this impending rain.  Well timed, while also well needed.  Just commencing here... showery and vaguely convective N of the more obvious downpours sliding up ENE out of CT ...ranging to strata rains over Upstate NY and CNE.  

This is occurring through 13z tomorrow morning, and then the moisture fields/sigmas make it appear as though we actually fracture the ceilings and sun wins out over the course of the afternoon hours, NW-SE, tomorrow.   It's a work day and night ... this is when we ...or I, prefer it.  Wouldn't mind a solid 3" soaker but as me grandmammy always used to say, 'beggars can't be choosers'.

Saturday still projects to be the very best weather in terms of subjective consensus, this summer ...or any summer, can provide on Earth.  If you want something better... I don't know, go to "Pandora" or something I guess.   It's like regional mean of 78/50, under the last days of solar max irradiance, thru 100 mi type visibility air moved around by caressing zephyrs.  Altho..hm, not sure of Michigan smoke but cross that bridge.. . Sunday looks pretty much the same, too.  Jeez

[Go Kart Mozart]

I am seeing ridge west, trough centered around ORD, and a big old WAR.  Looking hurricane-ish?

[Typhoon Tip]

Beyond this weekend .. what we got?  

The CPC's enhanced probability for above normal temperatures. 

Just a primer (again..) on how to use this product:  the intensity of red colorization does not mean higher scalar temperature.  Orange hues progressing to red means greater and greater probability of above normal temperature in that order.  In other words, this product says nothing of the magnitude of above normal.  If the days turned out +0.01 ..this product was successful. 

Very high probability of above normal with that deep insidious dried scab over NM for example, means that there is a very high probability, based upon whatever methods CPC uses to assess, that the time range will average between 0 and Nth degrees above normal.  

This all conceptually true at the other side for BN, obviously.

Having said all that, yeah...there some semblance of trend in the operational longer range means to roll another warm interlude out of the west.  That observation matches timing with the day 8-14 from the same source above as a progression timing.  The teleconnector numerical fields are positive-nominal ( AN but not +AN).   SO ....there's likeliness for AN from all this blended info but nothing that smacks as exceptional at this time. It's important and obvious to note that telecons and these spatial synoptic layouts, et al, are more stochastic in summer, which doesn't lend to predictive skill.   

 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I am seeing ridge west, trough centered around ORD, and a big old WAR.  Looking hurricane-ish?

I've been personally looking for a Bahama Blue circulation mode to set up... It's when you get a deep layer cross-latitudinal flow straight along and off the EC ... S to N with mass gathering from the eastern Gulf meshing in with Trade circulation fields turning NW through the Bahamas and all the way up the stream comes.  It's actually some of my most fascinating weather...just knowing the the deep blue with brilliant narrow turreted CU towers and their blinding single pixel rain shafts are bring the tropics to a none tropical climate.  heh.  Anyway, I have seen some hints of that in recent guidance but not convincing.