August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Sundog]

41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah the euro backed way off

What did 6z show?

[Roger Smith]

I would go for 1.0 to 1.5 inch rainfalls on Wednesday into early Thursday, looks to me like Erin will pull in the frontal band rather than reinforcing it in place, so higher potential totals may not be in play. There will be some bracing weather by later Thursday into Friday, mid 70s with a strong northeast breeze, nights 45-50 outside the urban areas and 55-60 inside.

A steady 68-70 F during the rainfall, but Wed max achieved before that, 73 F. 

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What did 6z show?

Less than .25" around the city

[Brian5671]

HRRR a bit out of range but has big rains in Central NJ

[Brian5671]

And euro has the band it just moved it south about 50 miles

[winterwx21]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

HRRR a bit out of range but has big rains in Central NJ

I'm sure that's the crazy HRRR making an error. Some areas will get heavy rain but I don't think anyone is getting a foot of rain out of this lol. 

[Sundog]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

And euro has the band it just moved it south about 50 miles

12z NAM has a lighter more north version:

[Brian5671]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

I'm sure that's the crazy HRRR making an error. Some areas will get heavy rain but I don't think anyone is getting a foot of rain out of this lol. 

unlikely to see that much but it does hint that someone may see some excessive rains

[Brian5671]

Glad I went to S NJ beaches last week-this week is not nice there with the stalled front and windy conditions

[winterwx21]

NAM 3km looks a lot different than HRRR. It doesn't have the heavy rain to the south but gives parts of north Jersey 1"+ amounts. Tomorrow is going to be very difficult to predict. 

[psv88]

57 this morning. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM 3km looks a lot different than HRRR. It doesn't have the heavy rain to the south but gives parts of north Jersey 1"+ amounts. Tomorrow is going to be very difficult to predict. 

Almost like an inverted trough in the wintertime-very hard to pinpoint more than 6 hrs out...

[ForestHillWx]

Walt has been noting this for the past 24hrs. I think he sniffed it out. 

[ForestHillWx]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Glad I went to S NJ beaches last week-this week is not nice there with the stalled front and windy conditions

Here now; yesterday was washed. Today is mostly cloudy, stiff NE breeze. Kids are out on the beach, but waters too rough to swim.