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August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks


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The minimum departure pattern over the last week looks similar to last January. Warmer to the north and cooler to the south. Matching the over the top warming pattern of recent years.

The warming to the north was more pronounced back in January due the strong westerly flow off the warmer lakes.

This event was primarily a radiational cooling one with strong surface high pressure and very low dewpoints. 

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August 2025 is concluding with a mean temperature of 73.7° (2.4° below the 1991-2020 baseline and 1.5° below the 1981-2010 baseline). That is the coolest August since 2000.

Numerous locations in the Northeast will finish with among the 10 driest Augusts on records. Data for select sites:

Allentown: 1.60" (Tied 9th driest)
Boston: 0.83" (tied 4th driest)
Islip: 0.53" (4th driest)
Manchester: 0.64" (3rd driest)
Mount Pocono: 1.42" (8th driest)
New Brunswick: 1.33" (8th driest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport (8th driest)
Portland: 0.53" (5th driest)
Sterling: 0.85" (4th driest)
Trenton: 0.82" (4th driest)
Washington, DC: 0.20" (1st driest) ***New August Record***

Generally cool and dry conditions will persist through midweek. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s with lows in the 50s outside New York City and low 60s in New York City. A system could bring some rain on Thursday or Friday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -4.61 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.023 today. 

 

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New York City's August and Summer 2025 Summary:

Summer 2025 in New York City was marked by stark contrasts, swinging between episodes of intense heat and sharp cool spells. June opened with a string of unusually cool days, before flipping mid-month to extreme heat. July was steadier but still ran warm overall, punctuated by surges into the upper 90s and several multi-day heatwaves. August shifted dramatically, dominated by persistent cool anomalies. Nearly two-thirds of the month ran below normal though a warm spell around mid-month tempered the chill. Overall, August 2025 was the coolest August since 2000. Although Summer 2025 was 0.3° above the 1991-2020 baseline (55% of days above normal) and 1.1° above the 1981-2010 baseline that preceded it, the volatility between unseasonable chill and unseasonable heat was its defining character.

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14 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Who knew summer would be reduced to 2 months.  I can tell you, no one.  

It wasn’t that much of a surprise. Just last year several spots were warmer in June than August. Most years when we have major heat in June and July August is cooler. 

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On 8/31/2025 at 12:17 PM, psv88 said:

 Crazy how early fall set in this year. At least it’s been sunny 

As I said, watch there be 100-degree heat at this time next year. It hasn't happened since 1953, and we are way overdue for this.

Fall set in early last year as well. It can't possibly happen 3 years in a row.

On 8/31/2025 at 1:01 PM, Dark Star said:

Not sure if it is "set in" quite just yet?

It's been here for a while. The pattern changed around August 1. Aside from the heatwave from about the 12th-17th, it's been fall-like for the most part. Summer is likely not coming back until next year, unless we get that odd temperature spike (like Oct. 2, 2019).

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1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

As I said, watch there be 100-degree heat at this time next year. It hasn't happened since 1953, and we are way overdue for this.

Fall set in early last year as well. It can't possibly happen 3 years in a row.

It's been here for a while. The pattern changed around August 1. Aside from the heatwave from about the 12th-17th, it's been fall-like for the most part. Summer is likely not coming back until next year, unless we get that odd temperature spike (like Oct. 2, 2019).

Aren't we supposed to get 80 degree days?  That's summer weather in my book.

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