August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Cfa]

The east end getting slammed of course. They’re like the South Jersey of Long Island, it doesn’t make meteorological sense to me.

It’s so dry here my Rosemary is wilting.

[steve392]

1 minute ago, Cfa said:

The east end getting slammed of course. They’re like the South Jersey of Long Island, it doesn’t make meteorological sense to me.

It’s so dry here my Rosemary is wilting.

The north fork getting lit up good on radar!

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, Cfa said:

The east end getting slammed of course. They’re like the South Jersey of Long Island, it doesn’t make meteorological sense to me.

It’s so dry here my Rosemary is wilting.

swing and a miss for most of us today

[donsutherland1]

The coolest air mass so far this season will move into the region tonight. As a result, this weekend will see low temperatures fall into the 50s in New York City with some 40s in the colder suburbs. Highs will generally reach the middle and upper 70s.

Generally cool and dry conditions will persist into next week. A system could bring at least some rain during or after the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +19.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.815 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (2.5° below normal). That would make August 2005 the coolest August since 2000.

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

What a beautiful night. I’d take this temp year round forever and ever 

[ForestHillWx]

63 right now sitting on the back patio, going down to 47; kids working up a sweat on the trampoline.

I’m tempted to light the fire pit; but too dry. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 81
ACY: 81
BLM: 80
PHL: 80
New Brnswk: 79
TEB: 79
LGA: 78
ISP: 78
NYC: 78
JFK: 77 * missing intra hour highs
TTN: 77

[psv88]

77 today, 0.04 of rain. 
 

most boring stretch of weather I can ever remember 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

77 today, 0.04 of rain. 
 

most boring stretch of weather I can ever remember 

It's boring except for the cool pool of air aloft, the cumulus build-ups and storms out east. Watching 9/11-15 to see if we can get a few days of low-mid 80s.

WX/PT

[ForestHillWx]

Down to 44; a little lower than projected. 

[steve392]

Brrrrrrrr, what a chilly morning at home, 58 and 52 at work.  First day of hoodie season!

[SACRUS]

 

55 / 46 clear (for now).  Mid - upper 70s today and tomorrow and overall dry as we close out the month.   Trough into the east , cuts off next tue - THu and still need watch for the first widespread meaningful rain in a while.  Other wise trough backs west by the 5/6 and warmer - near - above normal.  Still lots of onshore flow but a warmer / more humid flow should get us above normal as Atlantic ridge builds west. No heat in sight but warmer overall beyond the 6th.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 100 (1953)
NYC: 98 (1973)
LGA: 99 (1953)
JFk: 95 (1973)


Lows:

EWR: 49 (1934)
NYC: 50 (1965)
LGA: 55 (1986)
JFK: 51 (1965)


Historical:

 

1776 - General Washington took advantage of a heavy fog to evacuate Long Island after a defeat. Adverse winds kept the British fleet from intervening. (David Ludlum)

1838 - A major tornado, possibly the worst in Rhode Island history, passed south of Providence. It uprooted and stripped trees of their branches, unroofed or destroyed many houses, and sucked water out of ponds. The tornado barely missed a local railroad depot, where many people were waiting for a train. The tornado injured five people.

1839 - A hurricane moved from Cape Hatteras NC to offshore New England. An unusual feature of the hurricane was the snow it helped produce, which whitened the Catskill Mountains of New York State. Considerable snow was also reported at Salem NY. (The Weather Channel)

 

1907: Snow fell on Monadnock Mountain in southern New Hampshire. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1915: Some of the chilliest August weather on record occurred from the Plains to the upper Midwest. Locations that reported their all-time coldest temperature for August included: Neillsville, WI: 31°, Rochester, MN: 32° (also earliest first occurrence of freezing temperatures), Fayette, IA: 33°, Winona, MN: 33°, Charles City, IA: 34°, Grand Meadow, MN: 34°, Lancaster, WI: 34°, La Crosse, WI: 35°, New Hampton, IA: 35°, Rockford, IL: 35 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1950: On this date through the 31st, Hurricane Baker made landfall at Santa Rosa Island between Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL with winds of 100 mph. At Pensacola, the lowest sea-level pressure was 991 millibars or 29.27 inches of mercury at 10 PM with a maximum wind speed of 42 mph from the southeast. A waterspout/tornado came ashore and unroofed a home and store at Apalachicola, FL. 23 homes were damaged. One other tornado was reported in Jackson County. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1953: Five days with 100° or more the 29th to the 2nd at DC -100,103,102,102,101 (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1954: Hurricane Carol strengthened to Category 2 strength off the North Carolina coast with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph. Carol would accelerate over the next 24 hours and make landfall the next day over the Fire Island community of Point O' Woods on the eastern end of Long Island, NY with 100 mph sustained winds. An interesting note from Hurricane Carol was some of the strongest criticism came about the name of the storm. Editorials railed that it was not appropriate to give a nice name like Carol to a destructive hurricane. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1955: Big Meadows had 23.88 inches, VA greatest monthly precipitation total.

1959: Severe thunderstorms moved south across western Oklahoma, leaving several swaths of extensive hail damage. The Weatherford area was especially hard hit. Hail up to golf ball size caused severe damage to roofs and windows on almost all homes and buildings in the Weatherford area. Other hail paths, some of which caused 100% crop damage, extended from Dill City, south to the Red River in Cotton County, over the Grandfield area, and from near Granite to Headrick. The storms continued into north Texas, where wind damage was reported in the Burkburnett, Wichita Falls, Iowa Park, and Henrietta areas. Wind gusts to 75 mph were measured. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1962: Hackberry, LA gets 22 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish the state record. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1965: Canadian high pressure brought another chilly start to parts of the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Raleigh, NC dropped to 46°; their coldest August reading. Other record lows included: Concord, NH: 32°, Elkins, WV: 37°, Binghamton, NY: 37°, Ste. St. Marie, MI: 38°, Worcester, MA: 38°, Buffalo, NY: 38°, Williamsport, PA: 38°, Beckley, WV: 39°, Hartford, CT: 39°, Roanoke, VA: 43°, Charleston, WV: 45°, Lynchburg, VA: 45°, Richmond, VA: 47°, Boston, MA: 48°, Norfolk, VA: 52°, Charlotte, NC: 53 °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1967: Hurricane Katrina crossed the southern tip of Baja California and then traversed almost the entire length of the Gulf of California before making landfall again and rapidly weakening. More than two inches of rain fell in parts of southern California. Two inches fell at La Quinta and the city was cut off for several hours. 150 homes were damaged by floods in Palm Desert and Indian Wells. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1976: Another preview of fall as record lows were recorded across parts of Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Grand Rapids, MI fell to 39°, the coldest ever recorded during the month of August. Scattered frost occurs in rural areas. Ste. St. Marie, MI: 35°, Detroit, MI: 41°, Muskegon, MI: 41°, Youngstown, OH: 41°, Toledo, OH: 41°-Tied, Dayton, OH: 43 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979: Hurricane David grew into one of the most intense storms ever to cross the Caribbean Sea. After wiping out the tiny island of Dominica with 150 mph winds, David crashed ashore in the Dominican Republic at peak intensity on this date, with wind gusts over 200 mph. The central pressure in the storm was at its lowest at 924 millibars or 27.29 inches of mercury. More than 1,200 people on the two-nation island were killed and over 80,000 were left homeless. Damage totaled more than $1 billion dollars in the Caribbean alone. Skipping through the Bahamas, David struck a glancing blow on Florida, just north of the Gold Coast, tore across Cape Canaveral and then moved up the East Coast on September 6th, downing trees and power lines well into New England.

1982 - A tropical depression brought torrential rains to portions of southern Texas. Up to twelve inches fell south of Houston, and as much as eighteen inches fell southeast of Austin. The tropical depression spawned fourteen tornadoes in three days. (David Ludlum) Record cold gripped the northeastern U.S. Thirty-one cities in New England reported record lows, and areas of Vermont received up to three inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)

1985: Massive evacuations were ordered for beach front communities along the northern Gulf Coast as Hurricane Elena made her move toward the coast just before a busy Labor Day weekend. A cold front approached from the northwest, which collapsed the steering currents around Elena, and the storm began to recurve. It approached Florida, moving quite close to Tampa Bay and Cedar Key, before high pressure bridged the frontal boundary and steered Elena back towards the west. Elena intensified as it accelerated west-northwest, and was a major hurricane by the afternoon on September 1st peaking later that day at 125 mph. The hurricane made landfall near Biloxi, MS on September 2 as a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. Rainfall ranged from 2 inches at Key West to 11 inches at Apalachicola.

1987 - Eight cities in California and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date, including Redding CA and Sacramento CA where the mercury hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms drenched Georgia and the Carolinas with heavy rain, soaking Columbia, SC, with 4.10 inches in three hours. Fresno CA was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 109 degrees. Duluth MN tied their record for the month of August with a morning low of 39 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail in Montana and North Dakota during the evening and early nighttime hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported 20 miles south of Medora ND, and thunderstorms over Dawson County MT produced up to three inches of rain. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Roundup MT, Dazey ND and Protection KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1993: Three people were hurt by lightning in Kalamazoo County, Michigan. Two of them were huddled under an umbrella on the side of a road, watching a wrecker operator connect their stalled vehicle to his tow truck. Lightning struck the umbrella and then traveled to the wrecker operator. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2000: Little Rock, Arkansas: The temperature rises to 111 °F at the North Little Rock Airport, setting a new record for the hottest temperature ever observed at the location. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2001: Thunderstorms developed over northern Illinois during the evening hours. A series of thunderstorms moved across northern Cook County, dumping torrential amounts of rainfall. Flooding was reported on portions of the Kennedy and Edens expressways. The 93 mile deep tunnel was filled to capacity with 1.6 billion gallons of water forcing the Wilmette licks to be opened to dump 75 million gallons of storm and sewer water directly into Lake Michigan. O'Hare Airport received 4.31 inches of rain, most of which fell between 9 pm and 11 pm. This rainfall brought the total for the month to 12.25 inches, making this the second wettest month on record for Chicago. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: Lightning struck and killed a man at Busch Gardens near Williamsburg, VA . (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

2004": At landfall the storm, Gaston was originally classified as just shy of hurricane strength. While wind damage in South Carolina was minimal, the slow-moving storm produced five to ten inches of rain along its path, causing extensive flooding. Gaston moved north over land, weakening to a tropical depression but still bringing torrential rain to central Virginia, where at least eight people were killed in the ensuing floods. Richmond International Airport had 6.68 inches, Ashland recorded 10.61 inches, including 4.33 inches in one hour. The Richmond (West End ) reported 12.60 inches of rain and Mechanicsville had 10.70 inches. The Shockoe Bottom entertainment district near downtown Richmond was devastated by the flooding. Total damage was estimated at about $130 million. Ref. (Weather Underground Hurricane History Archives - Gaston)

2008: Hurricane Gustav set the world record for the highest wind gust measured in a tropical cyclone with a reading of 211 mph measured in Paso Real de San Deigo, Cuba. “The wind peaked and the anemometer mast fell over sharply interrupting the measurement…” (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2011: Even before Hurricane Irene dumped rain on the Northeastern United States over the weekend, parts of New England were very soggy. The rain gauge at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York recorded 7.8 inches (19.8 cm) on Aug. 14, breaking the previous daily record of 6.27 inches (15.9 cm), set in 1984. Before Irene, Robinson told LiveScience, New Jersey was having its sixth-wettest August since statewide records started in 1895. Then Irene moved in as the second-largest rainstorm in the state since 1895. Preliminary estimates peg New Jersey's August rainfall at 16.5 inches (41.9 centimeters), making it the rainiest month ever recorded in the state. (Ref. LifeScience.Com)

 

[bluewave]

Another cool crisp late August morning just east of HVN at 58°. I really enjoy how well this area near the LI Sound cools off at night compared to the LI South Shore. The low of 51° a few days ago was the lowest August minimum since 2006. These much lower dewpoints allowing for the cooler mornings have been a nice treat following the record June into July heat and humidity. My maxes this month have been +1.8° and my mins have been -1.5°. So the month has been +0.2° so far.

 

[FPizz]

48 this morning, up to 63.  Nice morning to sit outside and sip some coffee

[steve392]

The drive in this morning revealed even more color in the tree's.

[SACRUS]

 

Trough backing west and Atlantic ridge extending west beyond this period should yield a net above normal stretch (9/7 - 9/15) ish

 

[MANDA]

4 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Down to 44; a little lower than projected. 

 

Low of 44 here as well.  Bottomed out at 39 in Walpack.  It is boring and it is dry but I am loving this cool weather.  It will surely warm up again after the cool shot this coming week but who cares.  It will be mid-September by then and it is more tolerable with the rapidly decreasing sun angle.  Still would like some rain but as long as it is dry I'd rather have it cool like this.  Going to be planting some grass seed later today.

 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

 

Low of 44 here as well.  Bottomed out at 39 in Walpack.  It is boring and it is dry but I am loving this cool weather.  It will surely warm up again after the cool shot this coming week but who cares.  It will be mid-September by then and it is more tolerable with the rapidly decreasing sun angle.  Still would like some rain but as long as it is dry I'd rather have it cool like this.  Going to be planting some grass seed later today.

 

Euro had rain Thursday but then lost it

[psv88]

51.7 this morning. How is this August?

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

51.7 this morning. How is this August?

Feels great

[Dark Star]

Wow! One of the TEN best days, fer sure...

[forkyfork]

45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Feels great

nah

[Sundog]

The sky is incredibly blue today

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

The sky is incredibly blue today

Yeah, reduction of smoke with this Canadian airmass and dewpoints in the 40s are doing the trick.

[SACRUS]

 

76 / 44 clouds now building down south

 

[golfer67]

17 hours ago, psv88 said:

77 today, 0.04 of rain. 
 

most boring stretch of weather I can ever remember 

Nothing boring about 70s, sunny, and low humidity, unless you literally don't do anything

[donsutherland1]

The coolest air mass so far this season moved into the region last night. The temperature fell into the 50s in New York City and 40s in some outlying areas. Low temperatures included:

Atlantic City: 51°
Binghamton: 44°
Bridgeport: 55°
Danbury: 47°
Farmingdale: 55°
Islip: 56°
Montgomery: 45°
New Haven: 58°
New York City-Central Park: 57°
New York City-JFK Airport: 57°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 59°
Newark: 57°
Philadelphia: 57°
Poughkeepsie: 46°
Trenton: 51°
White Plains: 53°

Tonight will be a similar night. Afterward, temperatures will finish the weekend with highs in the middle and upper 70s under abundant sunshine.

Generally cool and dry conditions will persist through the middle of next week. A system could bring some rain on Thursday or Friday.

The big weather story next week will be the development of a massive heatdome oer western Canada. Temperatures in parts of British Columbia could challenge the Canadian national September record of 101° (38.3°C) from Windsor, ON that has stood since September 6, 1881.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +8.01 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.382 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7° (2.4° below normal). That would make August 2005 the coolest August since 2000.

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[lee59]

Great day for August, after a low of 53, made it to 76.

[donsutherland1]

It is now all but certain that New York City will see no rainfall for the August 22-31 period. Such an outcome favors a drier than normal September. When this was first noted last Sunday, the CFSv2 showed wetter than normal conditions for September.

The CFSv2 now shows a drier than normal September: