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August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks


wdrag
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I would go for 1.0 to 1.5 inch rainfalls on Wednesday into early Thursday, looks to me like Erin will pull in the frontal band rather than reinforcing it in place, so higher potential totals may not be in play. There will be some bracing weather by later Thursday into Friday, mid 70s with a strong northeast breeze, nights 45-50 outside the urban areas and 55-60 inside.

A steady 68-70 F during the rainfall, but Wed max achieved before that, 73 F. 

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

I'm sure that's the crazy HRRR making an error. Some areas will get heavy rain but I don't think anyone is getting a foot of rain out of this lol. 

unlikely to see that much but it does hint that someone may see some excessive rains

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5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM 3km looks a lot different than HRRR. It doesn't have the heavy rain to the south but gives parts of north Jersey 1"+ amounts. Tomorrow is going to be very difficult to predict. 

Almost like an inverted trough in the wintertime-very hard to pinpoint more than 6 hrs out...

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16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Glad I went to S NJ beaches last week-this week is not nice there with the stalled front and windy conditions

Here now; yesterday was washed. Today is mostly cloudy, stiff NE breeze. Kids are out on the beach, but waters too rough to swim. 

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EWR:  96 (2002)
NYC: 94 (2002)
LGA: 94 (1966)
JFK: 90 (2009)


Lows:

EWR: 54 (1958)
NYC:  55 (1924)
LGA: 59 (1979)
JFK: 53 (1963)

Historical:
 

 

1559: Pensacola, Florida: First recorded hurricane in US history hits Pensacola area driving five Spanish ships ashore in Pensacola Harbor. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1788 - A small but powerful hurricane inflicted great havoc upon forests along a narrow track from New Jersey to Maine. A similar storm track today would cause extreme disaster in the now populated area. (David Ludlum)

1890 - An estimated F3 tornado hit South Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. About 400 buildings were destroyed in the industrial and more impoverished residential section of town. The death toll was 16 and damage was estimated at $400,000.

 

1896: The famous Cottage City (Oak Bluffs) waterspout occurred off Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. The vortex was 3,600 feet high, formed three times, and was well photographed.

1935: Bangor, ME soared to 104° for their all-time record high temperature. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1939: An F2 tornado associated with a hurricane moved over the 10-mi-wide estuary of the Potomac River. It sank a boat offshore Reedville, VA, drowning a man; another person was killed between Scotland and Dameron, MD. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)


1939: Tuckerton registered New Jersey’s maximum 24 hour precipitation record as 14.82 inches of rain fell on the 19th and 20th. (Ref. Hurricane Map and NWS Monthly Weather Review )

1955: Devastating floods affect much of New England on the 18th and 19th as Hurricane Diane give record breaking rains. Boston, Massachusetts had 8.40 inches in 24 hours, greatest ever on Boston's records. Rains from Tropical Storm Diane fell on already saturated ground from Tropical Storm Connie a week before. Westfield, MA recorded 18.15 inches in 24 hours, to set a state record, while the 24-hour precipitation record for CT was set at Burlington with 12.77 inches. At one point, over 40% of Worcester, MA was underwater. Woonsocket, RI was hit hard as the Blackstone River, normally only 70 feet wide, swelled to over 1.5 miles in width. 82 people died and damage topped $800 millions dollars.(Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1969 - 'Never say die' Camille let loose a cloudburst in Virginia resulting in flash floods and landslides which killed 151 persons and cause 140 million dollars damage. Massies Hill VA received 27 inches of rain. (David Ludlum)

1979: Severe weather and very heavy rains were an unwelcome visitor to parts of northeast Nebraska from this date through the 20th. Hail up to one inch in diameter damaged crops in a strip from 6 miles south of Pilger, NE through Wisner and Pender affecting Stanton, Thurston and Cuming Counties. But probably the most remarkable event occurred in Dixon County where 6 to nearly 10 inches of rain fell in just four hours. This rainfall caused the Iowa Creek to exceed its banks causing extensive flash flooding of homes and businesses in Ponca. The rushing water washed out crops, tore trees from the creek bed and washed out 15 bridges in the county. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1986 - The temperature at San Antonio, TX, soared to an all-time record high of 108 degrees. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - Thunderstorms moving out of southeastern Nebraska spread severe weather into eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the day. Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced hail three inches in diameter at Albion, and high winds which downed a large tent at Waterloo injuring a dozen persons. Thunderstorms in Kansas produced baseball size hail northwest of Topeka, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Fulton. Ten persons were injured in a thunderstorm at Princeton KS, and damage to crops in southern Franklin County KS was estimated at 3.5 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Raleigh, NC, reported a record hot temperature reading of 103 degrees. Afternoon thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 75 mph in southern Pittsburgh County. Thunderstorms in Indiana produced 4.50 inches of rain at Morgantown. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms deluged southeastern Delaware with six to ten inches of rain in four to six hours, with local reports of 13 to 20 inches of rain. Twenty-six major roads were closed or damaged, and fourteen bridges were washed out. Flooding caused nearly four million dollars damage to local businesses. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1991: Hurricane Bob made landfall at Newport, RI with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph with gusts to 105 mph. Then the cyclone made a final landfall as a tropical storm at Rockland, ME. Winds reached 80 mph gusting 110 mph at the New Bedford Hurricane Barrier and gusts reached 143 mph at Westport Point, MA, 125 mph at Block Island, RI, 100 mph at Cape Cod, MA and 93 mph at Blue Hill, ME. The storm surge at Upper Buzzards Bay reached 15 feet. 7.84 inches of rain fell in 24 hours at Portland, ME, their wettest 24 hour period on record. Power was out to 2.1 million homes and businesses and damage totaled $1.5 billion dollars. 17 people died. Bob was the worst hurricane in the northeast since Hurricane Donna in 1960. Hurricane Bob did $780 million in damage and a long period of lost power in New England.Bob's Storm Track - Weather Underground (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1991: Strong thunderstorms affected portions of north central and east central South Dakota. In Dewey County, near Ridgeview, a thunderstorm produced about five inches of rain, very strong winds, and hail. The winds blew over three grain bins, one of which struck a house causing considerable damage. Skirting was blown from several mobile homes and shingles were torn from many houses. The storms also produced tremendous amounts of lightning. The Civil Defense Director for Codington County reported that the lightning was so frequent and vivid that he drove for 10 minutes without needing his headlights. At one point a lightning strike occurred within 10 feet of his car. The strike splattered mud onto his vehicle, drained his battery, and caused problems with the car's electrical system. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1992: Tropical Storm Andrew was becoming disorganized as it was being affected by upper level wind shear. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: Las Vegas, Nevada: A sudden deluge surprises Las Vegas, dumping 3 inches of rain in 90 minutes, severely flooding the city's northwest sector, knocking out power to thousands, and leaving motorists stranded atop their cars. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2007: Rainfall and flooding of historic proportions struck parts of the Upper Mississippi River Valley continuing into the next day. Rainfall in excess of 10 to 12 inches fell in some areas, with the main swath of heaviest rain centered along a line from Claremont and Rochester, MN to La Crosse, Viroqua and Muscoda, WI. 24 hour rainfall records were set in the following locations: Hokah, MN: 15.10 inches, Viroqua, WI: 9.23 inches, La Crescent, MN: 7.95 inches, Gays Mills, WI: 7.41 inches, The Hokah total also set the 24-hour rainfall record for the entire state of Minnesota. In addition, due to the training nature of the storms, the heavy rain persisted for hour after hour, with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour common. Flood of records were recorded at the Middle Fork Whitewater River at Whitewater State Park, MN. Many other sites had river crest within the top 5 record crest. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

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Follow NWS-NHC.  Will hold off thread due to uncertainty locating 5"+ bands but I think we're looking at some surprise heavy amounts (2-5") late Wed-early Thu but where.  Will rereview this evening and again tomorrow morning for a more a confident expression of bands Erin indirect but I think related heavy rain.  For now the ensembles are generalized-spread out. EC/EPS/ECAI have been onto this for quite a few cycles. 

Here's some graphics:

EPS 12z/19 prob of 1"+ 24 hr amount by Thu AM.  I think its within these magenta 50% prob that iso 5+ will occur.  For now it's a marginal risk from WPC on FF rain. 

SPC HREF has iso 5-7"+ MAX POTENTIAL rain in the tan areas including coastal NJ

12z EC OP has been slipping swd with the max axis rainfall but it's very close to our area off of s LI to coastal NJ...see the graphic.

Finally, how about the EPS Max 6hr G ending 2A Friday showing TS gusts in our ocean waters, even possibly grazing the NJ shore.  This is as far northwest as I've seen on the EPS which creeps our way... follow NHC/NWS.  All other modeling is seaward and not as threatening.  Follow NHC assessment-thank you. 

 

So there 18z NAM12K/NAM 3K like GEFS-CMCE... I90 NYS-MA   Not a confidence booster for locating near 5" axis as seen on the 18z NAM3K. 

No thread yet. Rechecking tonight and Wed AM.  432P/

 

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A dramatic change to a sustained period of cooler weather has now occurred. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s through Thursday and then the lower 80s on Friday through the weekend. 

Some showers or periods of rain are possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Most of the region will see less than 0.50" or rain, though widely scattered areas of heavier rainfall are possible. The Jersey shore could see heavier rain and a gusty wind.

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

The synoptic pattern should limit direct tropical cyclone threats for the foreseeable future. Impacts from elevated tides, surf, rip currents, and some showers or periods of rain would be the most likely effects produced by Erin as it tracks well offshore between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. 

There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -17.72 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.771 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (1.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

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