August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Stormlover74]

[FPizz]

Omg it was Hogan back from the dead dropping the leg one last time at Summerslam at Metlife!

[Snowlover11]

Didn’t feel it, but was driving.  Literally pulled into my job at 10:18 lol

[steve392]

1 mile from my house the epicenter was.  Felt wayyyy stronger than the 2 we had last year.  Legit shook me back into my couch. 

 

 

55 degrees in Paramus, NJ right now.  Someone in NW NJ has had to have gotten into the 40s.

[LoboLeader1]

Need a hoodie up here in the Berks this morning, temps are in the low 50's feeling fall like. 

[bluewave]

This is going to be the best August weather we have seen in years. Very impressive Canadian high pressure will dominate. The easterly flow will keep the temperatures comfortable for this time of year with a break in the record heat that we experienced from late June through July. The high pressure will keep most of the rain to our south. 
 

 

[wdrag]

00z/3 GEFS and consequently WPC looks misleading dry and underplayed middle and end of this coming week... PA/NJ/NYS.  Developing Ohio Valley upper low spells trouble this first week of August...   before a major warming occurs 2nd and 3rd weeks of August-back to H&H then.  

So, I'll have to self criticize if the 00z/3 DRY WPC 7 day in PA/NNJ/NYS verifies-accountability for words Expressed.  The rain may no exceed 1/4''' but I think something is coming to NJ/e PA/s NYS. Exactly how and when is my greater uncertainty.  Difficult to get 7-8 consecutive days of no measurable.  Can happen--- 

Adding verification to July in a couple minutes. 

[ForestHillWx]

54 at the moment. Looks like one more night in the 50s tonight before the minimums creep up. 

Great bonfire last night, though some of our guests did have on sweatshirts which was comical in light of how hot it has been. 

[steve392]

8 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

54 at the moment. Looks like one more night in the 50s tonight before the minimums creep up. 

Great bonfire last night, though some of our guests did have on sweatshirts which was comical in light of how hot it has been. 

The cool crisp air makes those fires smell even better when driving home.  It was definitley hoodie weather!

[wdrag]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be the best August weather we have seen in years. Very impressive Canadian high pressure will dominate. The easterly flow will keep the temperatures comfortable for this time of year with a break in the record heat that we experienced from late June through July. The high pressure will keep most of the rain to our south. 
 

 

LOTS of easterly flow in that EPS image...  moisture. 

[winterwarlock]

52 this morning...brrr

[SnoSki14]

GFS is very tropics happy 

[MANDA]

Low here this morning was 54.  Few upper 40's normal NWNJ chilly spots.  Great weather to open August.  No complaints from me.

I guess next up in terms of interesting weather will be how much heat returns in about 10 days or so and what the tropics can produce as MJO comes around into favorable phases.  Some interesting ensemble and op model solutions as we head toward mid month.  If we can keep some sort of upper ridge parked to our NE might be interesting.  Either way overall pattern looks to support more westerly tracks with lower chance of re curvature OTS.

We'll see how it plays out.

[SACRUS]

 

71 / 59 and another beaut of a day on tap.  Warmer than yesterday by a few mid 80s.  Monday warmer still with some inland areas to 90. With a similar Tue.   Likely see clouds push back in on Wed from the south and clear out Thu, with the brunt of the rain down into MD and points outh.  Overall near normal week - dry and lots of sunshine.    Flow remains manly onshore the next 5 days with flow coming around more southerly with a warmer / hotter and wet overall next week. 

 

8/3 - 8/8 :   Near normal / below - dry overall - Wed/Thu clouds - rain looks to stay southwest
8/8 - beyond :   Warm- Hot / Humid - wet overall - Tropics  - heat for the area targeting the 9-12 period.

 

 

[bluewave]

All Newark needs to have another year with 40 days reaching 90° is to approach the 2010-2024 average of 11 days after July 31st.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Most 90° Days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2024	33	0
-	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32	0
13	2020	31	0
-	2011	31	0
-	1973	31	0
-	1952	31	0
14	2025	30	151

 

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ AVG 90° days Aug to Oct Since 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	8	3	0	11
2024	7	0	0	7
2023	5	6	0	11
2022	18	1	0	19
2021	13	1	0	14
2020	9	0	0	9
2019	4	3	1	8
2018	14	4	0	18
2017	2	3	0	5
2016	13	5	0	18
2015	13	5	0	18
2014	2	3	0	5
2013	3	1	0	4
2012	7	2	0	9
2011	4	0	0	4
2010	11	6	0	17

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (2006)
NYC: 97 (2005)
LGA: 100 (2006)
JFK: 99 (2006)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1953)
NYC: 55 (1927)
LGA: 59 (1953)
JFK: 56 (1964)



Historical:

 

1864: A waterspout over Albemarle Sound, NC passed perilously close to the Union Fleet at anchor. The crews of the ships watched "in awe" as the whirlwind dissipated as it moved onshore. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1885 - A tornado hit Philadelphia and Camden along its eight mile path. (David Ludlum)


1885: A tornado causing estimated F3 damage hit Philadelphia and Camden along its eight-mile path. Six people were killed and damage totaled $500,000 dollars. Other tornadoes causing estimated F2 damage touched down in Cecil County, Maryland, New Castle County, Delaware and Bucks & Chester Counties in Pennsylvania. (David Ludlum)

1894: After two record heat waves in July, record cool weather arrives. Lansing, MI fell to 32° for a rare summer freezing temperature. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1898: Philadelphia, PA had one of their worst thunderstorms ever when 5.84 inches fell in just 2 hours. The hydraulic pressure in the city sewers caused by the force of the accumulated runoff created overflows via toilets, basins, and sinks to rise to second floor levels in some cases. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1899: A tropical depression was born in the tropical Atlantic. Before it finally dissipated a record 33 days later, it became known as the San Ciriaco Hurricane after a Puerto Rican village the storm devastated. Its life as a hurricane was 27.75 days, a record for the Atlantic Basin beating Hurricane Ginger of 1971 by three-quarters of a day. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1960: A home in Wauponsee Township, IL was struck by two tornadoes within 4 hours. The first one struck around 7 PM and the second around 11 PM. The house sustained significant damage to the roof, wiring and appliances. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1964: Muskegon, MI set an August record and tied their all-time record high temperature at 99°. The temperature hit 100° at Grand Rapids, MI a record for the date. Owen, WI set their all-time record high with 101°. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1970 - Hurricane Celia struck the coast of Texas producing wind gusts to 161 mph at Corpus Christi, and estimated wind gusts of 180 mph at Arkansas Pass. The hurricane was the most destructive of record along the Texas coast causing 454 million dollars damage, and also claimed eleven lives. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1974: Brooklyn, CT -- Lightning struck and killed a youth when he was running from a tent toward home at 2:40 a.m. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1975: Boston, Massachusetts had a 83 °F temperature the warmest minimum temperature. (Highest minimum on Boston's records) (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

 

1981: Severe thunderstorms tore across portions of central and eastern South Dakota. Near Hoven, a steel bin building was lifted off the ground by a small tornado and carried about 30 feet before it wrapped around a tree. In Faulkton, winds gusted to 97 mph at the Faulkton airport. The extremely high winds destroyed an airport hanger and damaged a grain elevator. At Redfield, 70 mph winds leveled an outdoor movie screen and flipped a plane. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1986: The minimum temperature of 69° is first below 70 °F recorded in the past 28 days at DCA. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1987 - A severe thunderstorm moved across Cheyenne, WY, during the mid afternoon. The thunderstorm produced hailstones up to two inches in diameter causing more than 37 million dollars damage. The eastern U.S. sweltered in the heat. A dozen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Paducah KY with a reading of 102 degrees. Beckley WV established an all- time record with an afternoon high of 93 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from the Central High Plains to the Upper Great Lakes Region. Thunderstorms around Fort Collins, CO, produced wind gusts to 74 mph along with marble size hail. Sixteen persons were injured in the storm, most of whom were accidently locked out of their office building, having evacuated it when the fire alarm went off, apparently triggered by lightning. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms representing what remained of Hurricane Chantal drenched Wichita, KS, with 2.20 inches of rain in four hours during the early morning. Thunderstorms developing in Minnesota produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Baudette during the afternoon, and softball size hail at Lake Kabetogama, during the evening. Jamestown, ND, reported a record hot afternoon high of 103 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)


1993:  Chesterfield County, VA lightning struck and killed a 30-year-old man as he mowed his lawn.
(Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)  Workers desperate to save the historic town of Prarier du Rocher, IL during the Mississippi River Flood deliberately broke a 1,000 foot hole in a levee near the town to divert water headed toward the town from a levee break upstream. The quick action worked, saving the town. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1994: Fairbanks, AK recorded their hottest August temperature ever with 93°. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1995: Hurricane Erin was nearing the coast of the Florida Panhandle. The hurricane had emerged into the Gulf Mexico the previous day after crossing the Florida Peninsula. By early morning, Erin's sustained winds reached 100 mph in a small area near its center. A 98-mph wind gust was observed at Mary Esther Field and Fort Walton Beach, FL. The storm came ashore near Pensacola, FL later that morning causing six fatalities and an estimated $700 million damage. The barrier island stretching from Pensacola Beach to Navarre Beach absorbed the brunt of the storm as it came ashore near Pensacola. Sustained winds of 94 mph and gusts up to 103 mph were measured at Pensacola during the height of the storm. Seven people were reported missing at sea.

2002: Two campers at Natural Chimneys Regional Park in Augusta County, VA were struck and injured by lightning. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

2003: Severe thunderstorms moved over parts of the Chicago Metro area during the early afternoon. The storms produced golf ball size hail along with heavy rain and flooding. 4.14 inches was reported in just 90 minutes six miles east of O’Hare Airport. Four to six feet of water covered the closed Kennedy Expressway. Several tents were blown down at an outdoor festival in Roselle. These storms continued into the evening producing more large hail. The National Weather Service at Romeoville reported nickel size hail for five minutes and 1.60 inches of rain in just 30 minutes. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[SACRUS]

 

[SACRUS]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All Newark needs to have another year with 40 days reaching 90° is to follow the 2010-2024 average of 11 days after July 31st.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Most 90° Days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2024	33	0
-	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32	0
13	2020	31	0
-	2011	31	0
-	1973	31	0
-	1952	31	0
14	2025	30	151

 

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ AVG 90° days Aug to Oct Since 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	8	3	0	11
2024	7	0	0	7
2023	5	6	0	11
2022	18	1	0	19
2021	13	1	0	14
2020	9	0	0	9
2019	4	3	1	8
2018	14	4	0	18
2017	2	3	0	5
2016	13	5	0	18
2015	13	5	0	18
2014	2	3	0	5
2013	3	1	0	4
2012	7	2	0	9
2011	4	0	0	4
2010	11	6	0	17

 

Expanded data back to 2010 - looks like Mon, Tue then 8/10 and beyond could add to those - no strong heat (95+) but do see plenty of 88 - 91 days through the 13/14th before perhaps more sustained warmth / heat towards the middle , second half of august.  EWR can get there with a N/NNE/E with right amount of sun.

 

[BxEngine]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS is very tropics happy 

Just hold it off 8 more days. Cruise starts today.

[psv88]

59 last night. New location doesn’t radiate well at all. Not sure why that is. Maybe being on top of a hill?

[FPizz]

53

[Sundog]

16 minutes ago, FPizz said:

53

What's your long term average low there? 60?

[Jersey Andrew]

47 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

What time frame are we looking at? Interested in August 15-20 because planning to be in AC and NYC.

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

Went to a drive-in theater for the first time last night (Warwick NY) and it was magical. Needed to bust out the blankets around 9:30. Twas the perfect day.