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OBS-Discussion Flash Flood rainfall potential through 4AM Tuesday 7/15/25, especially I95 corridor

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

It's unbelievable that this happened just a week and a half after our area was devastated by that incredibly severe t-storm that had 70 to 80mph winds. 

It really is. Like besides Ida and sandy these are the 2 most significant weather events since I've lived here, 10 days apart

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wdrag
wdrag

Good Monday morning everyone. Please follow anticipated NWS warnings-statements later today.  Already as of 530AM 1/4-1/2" amounts fell earlier today in NNJ. Watches are posted where potential ex

BxEngine
BxEngine

Closing in on 6”. Ouch.

forkyfork
forkyfork

i planted seeds today lol

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JerseyWx

JerseyWx

Posted
Posted

Looks like 3.5" will do it, and that's on the low side.  Some nearby stations are over 4 inches, closer to 4.5" actually.

Had some bouts of incredibly torrential rain.  Literally went from needing to add water to the pool, to having it filled to the brim and needing to drain it.

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Picard

Picard

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HailMan06 said:

Guess all of our insurance premiums will be increasing faster next year.

The most important thing is people walking away safely, which hopefully everyone did tonight.
After that, then looking at the property losses, including vehicles.  The costs and resources to repair or replace these things is astronomical these days, and with modern day cars, it doesn't take much water incursion to completely ruin it or run a tab into the tens of thousands in repairs.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Yesterday, White Plains picked up 3.38" of rain. That smashed the daily record of 1.63" from 2014. That was also the second highest amount for any day in July. The highest amount for any day in July was 3.44" from July 18, 2022. It was also White Plains' 7th highest summer (June-August) daily rainfall on record. It was White Plains' biggest rainfall since September 29, 2023 when 4.10" fell.

New York City (Central Park), Newark, and White Plains all received 2.00" or more daily rainfall for the first time since March 23, 2024. The last time all three stations saw 2" or more daily rainfall during the summer was August 22, 2021.

NOTE: The PNS shows 2.95" at White Plains. The climate record in XmAcis shows 3.38". 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted 
010
NOUS41 KOKX 150711 RRA
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-151900-

Public Information Statement...Corrected
National Weather Service New York NY
311 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...Connecticut...

...Fairfield County...
Greenwich                    3.19 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
Danbury                      3.07 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP
Danbury                      2.43 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
Danbury                      2.03 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
Danbury                      1.99 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP
1 WNW Redding                1.90 in   0150 AM 07/15   AWS
REDDING                      1.81 in   0158 AM 07/15   CWOP
Danbury Airport              1.80 in   0153 AM 07/15   ASOS
Redding                      1.69 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
Greenwich                    1.45 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Ridgefield                   1.44 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
3 N New Canaan               1.39 in   0154 AM 07/15   AWS
Redding Ridge                1.35 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
2 E Greenwich                1.23 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
STAMFORD                     1.16 in   1055 PM 07/14   CWOP

...New Haven County...
Wolcott                      1.34 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Oxford                       1.18 in   0153 AM 07/15   CWOP

...New Jersey...

...Bergen County...
1 SSE Franklin Lakes         3.73 in   0145 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
Leonia                       2.79 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Tenafly                      2.54 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
Tenafly                      2.42 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Tenafly                      2.33 in   0156 AM 07/15   CWOP
New Milford                  2.26 in   0150 AM 07/15   AWS
Teterboro Airport            2.25 in   0151 AM 07/15   ASOS
Hasbrouck Heights            2.22 in   0154 AM 07/15   CWOP
Mahwah                       2.04 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Ridgwood                     1.86 in   0158 AM 07/15   CWOP
Bergenfield                  1.81 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
Oakland                      1.79 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
Emerson                      1.43 in   0146 AM 07/15   CWOP
Oakland                      1.27 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Paramus                      1.15 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
North Arlington              1.11 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS

...Essex County...
1.6 W Millburn               3.00 in   0145 AM 07/15   HADS
Millburn                     2.62 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Maplewood                    2.54 in   0110 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
West Orange                  2.19 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
1 W Newark                   2.05 in   0150 AM 07/15   AWS
WEST CALDWELL                1.94 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
1 W Orange                   1.75 in   0155 AM 07/15   URBANET
West Caldwell                1.72 in   0154 AM 07/15   AWS
Caldwell                     1.59 in   0153 AM 07/15   ASOS
Fairfield                    1.49 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
West Caldwell                1.41 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
0.6 SW Caldwell              1.36 in   0145 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
Newark                       1.17 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
2 S Kearny                   1.01 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS

...Hudson County...
1 W Hoboken                  1.28 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Kearny                       1.12 in   0156 AM 07/15   CWOP
Hoboken                      1.03 in   0157 AM 07/15   CWOP

...Passaic County...
0.8 SE Pompton Lakes         2.59 in   0130 AM 07/15   HADS
Ringwood                     2.56 in   0110 AM 07/15   RAWS
Wayne                        2.51 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
2.1 E Ringwood               2.28 in   0145 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
WAYNE                        2.27 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
North Haledon                2.06 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
1.5 SW Ringwood              1.56 in   0145 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
1 NNE North Caldwell         1.36 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
Hawthorne                    1.20 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
West Milford                 1.18 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP

...Union County...
Mountainside                 5.34 in   0130 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
Linden Airport               4.38 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWOS
Bayside                      4.10 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP
Newark Airport               2.13 in   0151 AM 07/15   ASOS

...New York...

...Bronx County...
1 NE Harlem                  2.64 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS

...Nassau County...
Great Neck                   1.18 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP

...New York (Manhattan) County...
Central Park                 2.64 in   0151 AM 07/15   ASOS
Washington Heights           2.08 in   0150 AM 07/15   AWS
Midtown Manhattan            1.88 in   0150 AM 07/15   AWS
New York                     1.85 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
NEW YORK                     1.52 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP

...Orange County...
2.6 NW Tuxedo Park           3.92 in   0145 AM 07/15   HADS
Newburgh                     3.06 in   0136 AM 07/15   CWOP
CORNWALL ON HUDSON           2.53 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
Tuxedo Park                  2.35 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Washingtonville              2.13 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
US Military Academy          1.93 in   1255 AM 07/15   RAWS
Vails Gate                   1.65 in   0156 AM 07/15   CWOP
NEW WINDSOR                  1.27 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
West Point                   1.21 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
Harriman                     1.15 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Chester                      1.11 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
Chester                      1.03 in   0150 AM 07/15   AWS

...Putnam County...
Lake Carmel                  3.23 in   0156 AM 07/15   CWOP
Mahopac                      1.03 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS

...Queens County...
NYC/La Guardia               1.66 in   0151 AM 07/15   ASOS
Bellerose                    1.52 in   0151 AM 07/15   CWOP
OZONE PARK                   1.38 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP
LONG ISLAND CITY             1.23 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP
NYC/JFK Airport              1.02 in   0151 AM 07/15   ASOS

...Richmond County...
Eltingville                  2.14 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
Staten Island                1.43 in   0146 AM 07/15   CWOP

...Rockland County...
Nanuet                       5.03 in   0130 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
1 SSW Mount Ivy              4.12 in   0154 AM 07/15   AWS
1 NW Haverstraw              3.10 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
Montebello                   2.76 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
0.9 N Montebello             2.36 in   0130 AM 07/15   HADS
New City                     2.29 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
Stony Point                  2.22 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
Spring Valley                1.39 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
Sloatsburg                   1.01 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP

...Suffolk County...
Fort Salonga                 1.55 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
Old Field                    1.47 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
East Setauket                1.23 in   0158 AM 07/15   CWOP
Northport                    1.22 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
COMMACK                      1.16 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP

...Westchester County...
Tarrytown                    4.06 in   0147 AM 07/15   CWOP
Dobbs Ferry                  3.38 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Midland Park                 3.36 in   0145 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
1 SSE Hartsdale              3.23 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Armonk                       2.97 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
White Plains Airport         2.95 in   0156 AM 07/15   ASOS
Rye Brook                    2.79 in   0154 AM 07/15   AWS
SCARSDALE                    2.25 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
1 NW Rye                     1.89 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
1 S Peach Lake               1.83 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
PORT CHESTER                 1.71 in   0158 AM 07/15   CWOP
Pleasantville                1.61 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Ossining                     1.38 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP
New Rochelle                 1.22 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
Rye                          1.21 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS

...Maritime Stations...
Greenwich                    1.32 in   0157 AM 07/15   CWOP
&&
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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
  • Author
Posted

0.82 here i9n this part of Wantage NJ.  I'll be looking for a listing of NWS posted rainfall amounts from OKX and PHI on this thread later today.  Can't do CoCoRaHs post till this afternoon. 

am looking at probably one more FF/SVR thread this week centered on Sunday into early Monday.  Small chc thread for Wed afternoon-Thu but am pretty sure we'll need a thread for Sunday, in part due to antecedent pockets of saturated turf. 

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: 
010
NOUS41 KOKX 150711 RRA
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-151900-

Public Information Statement...Corrected
National Weather Service New York NY
311 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...Connecticut...

...Fairfield County...
Greenwich                    3.19 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
Danbury                      3.07 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP
Danbury                      2.43 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
Danbury                      2.03 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
Danbury                      1.99 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP
1 WNW Redding                1.90 in   0150 AM 07/15   AWS
REDDING                      1.81 in   0158 AM 07/15   CWOP
Danbury Airport              1.80 in   0153 AM 07/15   ASOS
Redding                      1.69 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
Greenwich                    1.45 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Ridgefield                   1.44 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
3 N New Canaan               1.39 in   0154 AM 07/15   AWS
Redding Ridge                1.35 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
2 E Greenwich                1.23 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
STAMFORD                     1.16 in   1055 PM 07/14   CWOP

...New Haven County...
Wolcott                      1.34 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Oxford                       1.18 in   0153 AM 07/15   CWOP

...New Jersey...

...Bergen County...
1 SSE Franklin Lakes         3.73 in   0145 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
Leonia                       2.79 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Tenafly                      2.54 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
Tenafly                      2.42 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Tenafly                      2.33 in   0156 AM 07/15   CWOP
New Milford                  2.26 in   0150 AM 07/15   AWS
Teterboro Airport            2.25 in   0151 AM 07/15   ASOS
Hasbrouck Heights            2.22 in   0154 AM 07/15   CWOP
Mahwah                       2.04 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Ridgwood                     1.86 in   0158 AM 07/15   CWOP
Bergenfield                  1.81 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
Oakland                      1.79 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
Emerson                      1.43 in   0146 AM 07/15   CWOP
Oakland                      1.27 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Paramus                      1.15 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
North Arlington              1.11 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS

...Essex County...
1.6 W Millburn               3.00 in   0145 AM 07/15   HADS
Millburn                     2.62 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Maplewood                    2.54 in   0110 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
West Orange                  2.19 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
1 W Newark                   2.05 in   0150 AM 07/15   AWS
WEST CALDWELL                1.94 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
1 W Orange                   1.75 in   0155 AM 07/15   URBANET
West Caldwell                1.72 in   0154 AM 07/15   AWS
Caldwell                     1.59 in   0153 AM 07/15   ASOS
Fairfield                    1.49 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
West Caldwell                1.41 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
0.6 SW Caldwell              1.36 in   0145 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
Newark                       1.17 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
2 S Kearny                   1.01 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS

...Hudson County...
1 W Hoboken                  1.28 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Kearny                       1.12 in   0156 AM 07/15   CWOP
Hoboken                      1.03 in   0157 AM 07/15   CWOP

...Passaic County...
0.8 SE Pompton Lakes         2.59 in   0130 AM 07/15   HADS
Ringwood                     2.56 in   0110 AM 07/15   RAWS
Wayne                        2.51 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
2.1 E Ringwood               2.28 in   0145 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
WAYNE                        2.27 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
North Haledon                2.06 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
1.5 SW Ringwood              1.56 in   0145 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
1 NNE North Caldwell         1.36 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
Hawthorne                    1.20 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
West Milford                 1.18 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP

...Union County...
Mountainside                 5.34 in   0130 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
Linden Airport               4.38 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWOS
Bayside                      4.10 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP
Newark Airport               2.13 in   0151 AM 07/15   ASOS

...New York...

...Bronx County...
1 NE Harlem                  2.64 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS

...Nassau County...
Great Neck                   1.18 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP

...New York (Manhattan) County...
Central Park                 2.64 in   0151 AM 07/15   ASOS
Washington Heights           2.08 in   0150 AM 07/15   AWS
Midtown Manhattan            1.88 in   0150 AM 07/15   AWS
New York                     1.85 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
NEW YORK                     1.52 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP

...Orange County...
2.6 NW Tuxedo Park           3.92 in   0145 AM 07/15   HADS
Newburgh                     3.06 in   0136 AM 07/15   CWOP
CORNWALL ON HUDSON           2.53 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
Tuxedo Park                  2.35 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Washingtonville              2.13 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
US Military Academy          1.93 in   1255 AM 07/15   RAWS
Vails Gate                   1.65 in   0156 AM 07/15   CWOP
NEW WINDSOR                  1.27 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
West Point                   1.21 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
Harriman                     1.15 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Chester                      1.11 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP
Chester                      1.03 in   0150 AM 07/15   AWS

...Putnam County...
Lake Carmel                  3.23 in   0156 AM 07/15   CWOP
Mahopac                      1.03 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS

...Queens County...
NYC/La Guardia               1.66 in   0151 AM 07/15   ASOS
Bellerose                    1.52 in   0151 AM 07/15   CWOP
OZONE PARK                   1.38 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP
LONG ISLAND CITY             1.23 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP
NYC/JFK Airport              1.02 in   0151 AM 07/15   ASOS

...Richmond County...
Eltingville                  2.14 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
Staten Island                1.43 in   0146 AM 07/15   CWOP

...Rockland County...
Nanuet                       5.03 in   0130 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
1 SSW Mount Ivy              4.12 in   0154 AM 07/15   AWS
1 NW Haverstraw              3.10 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
Montebello                   2.76 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
0.9 N Montebello             2.36 in   0130 AM 07/15   HADS
New City                     2.29 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
Stony Point                  2.22 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
Spring Valley                1.39 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
Sloatsburg                   1.01 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP

...Suffolk County...
Fort Salonga                 1.55 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
Old Field                    1.47 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
East Setauket                1.23 in   0158 AM 07/15   CWOP
Northport                    1.22 in   0200 AM 07/15   CWOP
COMMACK                      1.16 in   0155 AM 07/15   CWOP

...Westchester County...
Tarrytown                    4.06 in   0147 AM 07/15   CWOP
Dobbs Ferry                  3.38 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Midland Park                 3.36 in   0145 AM 07/15   IFLOWS
1 SSE Hartsdale              3.23 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Armonk                       2.97 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
White Plains Airport         2.95 in   0156 AM 07/15   ASOS
Rye Brook                    2.79 in   0154 AM 07/15   AWS
SCARSDALE                    2.25 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
1 NW Rye                     1.89 in   0153 AM 07/15   AWS
1 S Peach Lake               1.83 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
PORT CHESTER                 1.71 in   0158 AM 07/15   CWOP
Pleasantville                1.61 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS
Ossining                     1.38 in   0159 AM 07/15   CWOP
New Rochelle                 1.22 in   0145 AM 07/15   CWOP
Rye                          1.21 in   0155 AM 07/15   AWS

...Maritime Stations...
Greenwich                    1.32 in   0157 AM 07/15   CWOP
&&

Thanks for this Don--- hoping they update this better reality by Noon today.  Clearly more than 5" fell. Response is pretty severe in parts of NYC subforum. 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thanks for this Don--- hoping they update this better reality by Noon today.  Clearly more than 5" fell. Response is pretty severe in parts of NYC subforum. 

At least 3 reports of 6”+ from Union County where the SPC HREF had its local max. So a good performance from the model. This almost had some PRE-like characteristics with the weak tropical low near Florida. 

IMG_4089.thumb.jpeg.b78d549f148a8ff3f37ca134b0e10924.jpeg
 

 

IMG_4094.thumb.jpeg.d4dddb9a450547d87a47c086ae72ed7e.jpeg

Daily Precipitation Report  
Station Number: NJ-UN-42 Station Name: Westfield 0.8 WSW
Data Explorerchart-tree-map-duotone-blue.png
Observation Date 7/15/2025 6:24 AM
Submitted 7/15/2025 6:26 AM
Gauge Catch 6.24 in.
Notes Historic rain for 4 straight hours, +1” / hour

 

Daily Precipitation Report  
Station Number: NJ-UN-39 Station Name: Clark Twp 0.7 SSW
Data Explorerchart-tree-map-duotone-blue.png
Observation Date 7/15/2025 7:00 AM
Submitted 7/15/2025 7:13 AM
Gauge Catch 6.12 in.
Notes I submitted several significant weather reports during the storm. A multitude of water rescues were conducted by the Clark Fire Department.

 

Daily Precipitation Report  
Station Number: NJ-UN-36 Station Name: Clark Twp 1.3 ENE
Data Explorerchart-tree-map-duotone-blue.png
Observation Date 7/15/2025 6:59 AM
Submitted 7/15/2025 7:04 AM
Gauge Catch 6.67 in.
Notes Mostly Sunny…humid…72F

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

South shore getting a nice batch of rain currently adding to the .5” from yesterday. I’ll take it. 

By the way whomever said Long Island wouldn't get much rain was wrong, we had heavy rain last night and it was still raining here pretty hard around 8 AM this morning, it only ended just before 9 AM here, we had over 12 hours of rain!!

We got over an inch of rain here

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like about 0.75" to end it.

I dont understand why people thought the cooler ocean would weaken it, it rained for over 12 hours here and we had well over an inch on the south shore.  The oceans are much warmer now, the ocean won't be weakening anything anymore, if anything it adds more moisture to make the rain heavier.

 

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