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July 2025 General Discussion


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On 7/17/2025 at 8:57 AM, Torchageddon said:

This is now the 8th overcast/rainy Thurs morning in a row (during the clearest months, during a hot/slightly drier regime). I'd love to know what the statistical odds of this are but my local historical data sucks plus I wouldn't ken how to go bout figuring it. I assumed around 20% of such a morning - when stacked for 7 in a row it was at 0.013%!! Now at 0.0026%...

The impossible happened: on what was suppose to be a mostly clear sunny hot day, I woke up at 7 to see dark overcast!! :lmao: For 9th in a row that comes to 0.00052% - this is incomprehensible. Now the caveat is what range in the morning to use as this morning isn't quite so long for darkness. At 815 there were bluer skies coming in a bit to the west but the sun was mostly covered and new clouds generated over me as of 850am. I've used up to this point 6am-10am but the majority of these Thurs mornings have been overcast til noon at least. I could increase my % to 35-40% to reflect less time in the dark but that muddles this.

I checked my own records for mornings even before May 22, which fortuitously I keep track of. May 15th was partly cloudy, but the previous 3 Thur mornings were all dark overcast!! :arrowhead:The last clear Thurs morning I had was all the way back on April 17!!! Only 1 out of the last 13 had partly cloudy with sun, WTF!? As you go back into mid-spring the chances of an overcast morning skyrocket but nearly 13 in a row, come on....

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51 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

The impossible happened: on what was suppose to be a mostly clear sunny hot day, I woke up at 7 to see dark overcast!! :lmao: For 9th in a row that comes to 0.00052% - this is incomprehensible. Now the caveat is what range in the morning to use as this morning isn't quite so long for darkness. At 815 there were bluer skies coming in a bit to the west but the sun was mostly covered and new clouds generated over me as of 850am. I've used up to this point 6am-10am but the majority of these Thurs mornings have been overcast til noon at least. I could increase my % to 35-40% to reflect less time in the dark but that muddles this.

I checked my own records for mornings even before May 22, which fortuitously I keep track of. May 15th was partly cloudy, but the previous 3 Thur mornings were all dark overcast!! :arrowhead:The last clear Thurs morning I had was all the way back on April 17!!! Only 1 out of the last 13 had partly cloudy with sun, WTF!? As you go back into mid-spring the chances of an overcast morning skyrocket but nearly 13 in a row, come on....

Them are the doldrums of living in the Great Lakes region (specifically downwind).

I feel for you...

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Among very long POR sites, Cedar Rapids, Iowa reached a daily record high minimum temperature (78F) with Baton Rouge, Louisiana tying its record high minimum (79F). Several other locations were close to records, with Moline, IL; Memphis, TN; and Tupelo, MS each matching their second warmest daily low.

Looking at some observations this morning, Chicago and South Bend would each set new daily record high minimum temperatures if the current lows were to hold through the day. I didn't check anywhere else, but there's probably several more out there. Unfortunately, convection appears likely to spoil some of these low temperatures, especially at Chicago. South Bend might set a record even if there is convection there due to the high dewpoints. The current daily record high minimum there is 74F, whereas the low temperature this morning was 76F.

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2 hours ago, TheNiño said:

Slight risk added for Chicago metro today? Didn’t really see that one coming.

Got strong surface heating, modest mid-level lapse rates and surface dews in the low/mid 70s. So wet microburst potential is definitely on the higher end today.

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It was pretty impressive for GRR to hit 90 before noon.  Dry soil feedback / dewpoints mixing down to around 70 boosted the heat.  In ideal conditions that would be a setup for upper 90s.  Increasing clouds and strengthening wind off the lake is putting a lid on this afternoon though.

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