Winter cancelled/uncancelled banter 25/26

[weatherpruf]

5 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

With the hard crust on top of the snow, it really stands out how much the deer crap everywhere here.

rabbits...i got rabbit poop all over the yard...how they don't freeze to death is a miracle.

[Roger Smith]

Note there is a "predict the cold" contest for the interval Saturday to Monday, thank you for your attention to this matter. 

[IrishRob17]

8 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

With the hard crust on top of the snow, it really stands out how much the deer crap everywhere here.

I'm wondering how many deer I may find in the spring. Spring of 2015 we found three deer carcasses, all had starved to death due to the snow cover and size of the herd at the time. 

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

I'm wondering how many deer I may find in the spring. Spring of 2015 we found three deer carcasses, all had starved to death due to the snow cover and size of the herd at the time. 

[forkyfork]

every town's local facebook group has people complaining about snow removal. lol

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

On 1/31/2026 at 7:49 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Actually, one needed a Top 10 list. Here it is:

I still find it so disappointing the way 2010/2011 seemed like it was on its way to break all the snowfall records and just died. 
Still a great winter overall for most but the last six weeks a big disappointment for many.  

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

every town's local facebook group has people complaining about snow removal. lol

Was shit job everywhere.

[forkyfork]

happy wormsday

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

Was shit job everywhere.

Yea the whole island was done poorly. But we usually don’t get two weeks of below freezing that was the real issue. But still no one cleared the sidewalks kids are walking in the street. Half my street still has snow too 

[Prue11]

2 hours ago, Dan76 said:

Was shit job everywhere.

The roads by me was basically plowed as a one way street. Snow is 3-4’ off the edge of curbs and property lines 

[coastalplainsnowman]

11 hours ago, Prue11 said:

The roads by me was basically plowed as a one way street. Snow is 3-4’ off the edge of curbs and property lines 

Same here.  If we had gotten even another foot this past weekend a lot of those would become zero way streets.

And yes, I still wish we had gotten another foot.

[Roger Smith]

Would I be right in assuming Liberty Bell = Weathergeek2005 = Tony? 

Asking because RJay posted a forecast from Tony in contest and RJay's inbox is full so I can't ask him that way.

[Stormlover74]

24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Would I be right in assuming Liberty Bell = Weathergeek2005 = Tony? 

Asking because RJay posted a forecast from Tony in contest and RJay's inbox is full so I can't ask him that way.

No liberty is someone else

[NorthShoreWx]

1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I respectfully disagree .  I believe this since ever sub being introduced to the ‘cumulative snowpack’ stat (h/t Don), which I think is the best stat how wintry a winter will be remembered, especially by the average person.  I believe that years from now we’ll remember the cold and occasionally frigid temps, but we’ll mostly remember the deep snow and icepack which refused to budge for weeks, as well as the unique nature of the storm itself.
 

Years from now I am mostly going to remember all of the complaining.  As some old accuWx guy used to say, "enjoy the weather ..."

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Years from now I am mostly going to remember all of the complaining.  As some old accuWx guy used to say, "enjoy the weather ..."

You're thinking of a different stat - "cumulative complaining."

[NorthShoreWx]

Just now, coastalplainsnowman said:

You're thinking of a different stat - "cumulative complaining."

I think Don or Bluewave did a trend analysis of this.

[Roger Smith]

Complaints are proportional to the square of days elapsed since last measurable snowfall. 

C = D(s)^2

Some authorities give

C = D(s)^3

[Pellice]

I have a quick question about whether the NWS "Forecast Discussion" has changed.  The NWS seems to have dropped the "long-term" section of the discussion in favor of "key messages".  I had thought it was the result of my moving to a different NWS area, but Mt. Holly seems to have made this small change as well.  The long-term section was not that long ahead, usually just 4-5 days or so, but discussion  of it seems to have much diminished. Is this my imagination or has this been an across-the-board slight change?

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, Pellice said:

I have a quick question about whether the NWS "Forecast Discussion" has changed.  The NWS seems to have dropped the "long-term" section of the discussion in favor of "key messages".  I had thought it was the result of my moving to a different NWS area, but Mt. Holly seems to have made this small change as well.  The long-term section was not that long ahead, usually just 4-5 days or so, but discussion  of it seems to have much diminished. Is this my imagination or has this been an across-the-board slight change?

 

On 12/16/2025 at 10:12 AM, IrishRob17 said:

NOUS41 KOKX 161406
PNSOKX

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
0906 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY TRANSITIONING TO A NEW 
FORMAT FOR THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION BEGINNING JAN 7 2026...

Beginning with the afternoon issuance on January 7th 2026, the 
National Weather Service New York, NY Forecast Office will 
transition to a Key Message format for the Area Forecast Discussion 
(AFDOKX).  

This strategic change aligns the Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) with 
an impacts-first message philosophy, enabling our office to 
streamline communication and reduce redundancy. This transition 
moves away from a strictly chronological layout to focus immediately 
on potential weather impacts and hazards. By prioritizing Key 
Messages, we aim to enhance clarity and eliminate duplication within 
the Area Forecast Discussion. 

A side-by-side comparison of the old format and the new format 
templates can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/newAFD

The latest local AFD can be found at the following link: 
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=okx&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD

For any questions, please contact:

Nelson Vaz 
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service New York NY
[email protected]

 

[Santa Claus]

nice cup of saturday morning green tea

[donsutherland1]

Christina Georgina Rossetti's "In the Bleak Midwinter" opens:

...frosty wind made moan,
earth stood hard as iron,
water like a stone;
snow had fallen,
snow on snow, snow on snow...

Today presents a scene that could have been taken right from that poem. An icy wind frequently gusting past 40 mph hurls the powder of last night's light snowfall all about. Occasional gusts propel the snow into dense clouds. Periodically, flurries fall from a slate gray sky that dims a feeble sun. The thermometer quietly slips ever lower through the teens.

Overall, today has exceptional wintry appeal. Even as the New York City area is not experiencing the near blizzard conditions that have gripped New England's Cape Ann, the day is one that can be savored by all who cherish the winter, its cold, and its snow. To those who embrace winter and everything it has to offer, there is nothing "bleak" about winter. Finally, the dreadful dearth of such days in recent years makes today feel even more special.

[Santa Claus]

i see folks walking on the raritan river

[NyWxGuy]

I think this is it, to be honest. Seems like Nothing good on the horizon. We now have to wait until March to see if we’ll have a 2015 or 2018 redux. We’ll need it in order to reach average here in NYC. I just don’t think we’ll reach it. Still way better way, best since 2021, and the cold has made this winter even better. But I think we’re done with the snow 

[ForestHillWx]

9 hours ago, Santa Claus said:

i see folks walking on the raritan river

Just the craziest thing to me. I saw a few 22 years fell thru the ice on the East River earlier this week (survived I think).

Lake ice is one thing; ice with an active current, that is likely brackish the closer you get to the coast, good luck. 

[Nibor]

3 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

I think this is it, to be honest. Seems like Nothing good on the horizon. We now have to wait until March to see if we’ll have a 2015 or 2018 redux. We’ll need it in order to reach average here in NYC. I just don’t think we’ll reach it. Still way better way, best since 2021, and the cold has made this winter even better. But I think we’re done with the snow 

Are you Kars4Kids?