July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[winterwarlock]

91/77/101

[SACRUS]

 

Noon Roundup hot in the city

 

 

EWR: 92
TEB: 91
ACY: 91
ISP: 90
JFK: 90
New Brnswck: 90
NYC: 89
LGA: 89
BLM: ?? N/A
PHL: 88
TTN: 88


 

[SACRUS]

 

91/ 71 here

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

91/ 71 here

Tony it hit 91 here but then clouds came in, where did these clouds come from?

It's oscillating between partly and mostly cloudy here now.

[SACRUS]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yup, but more clouds

where do these clouds come from anyway?

Cumulus - been sunny here today and hence the surge in temps.  If for whatever reason that front can be delayed or have periods of clearing or sin on Thursday - we may get 4 (5 for some) days of the heatwave but that doesent look to be in the cards.

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony it hit 91 here but then clouds came in, where did these clouds come from?

It's oscillating between partly and mostly cloudy here now.

 

NW flow earlier cumulus clouds.  

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

NW flow earlier cumulus clouds.  

 

I always thought the clouds come in early when the wind flows from the S (sea breeze front) but now we have clouds coming in from the NW on a dry downsloping wind somehow too.

Maybe we just have too much moisture in the air in this new era to expect a cloud free day with temperatures in the 90s-100s.

I think thats why the extremes were higher during the 1944-1966 period with multiple 100+ degree heatwaves, there were far fewer clouds back then and of course less rainfall.

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Zero smoke today the skies are crystal clear and deep blue, smoke won't be an impediment to temperatures at all this week.

These smoke forecasts from the models vary quite a bit from run to run. So it’s much more of a trial and error process. Always have to check in the mornings to see how close to reality the HRRR and other models are doing.

[LoboLeader1]

91/70 here

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These smoke forecasts from the models vary quite a bit from run to run. So it’s much more of a trial and error process. Always have to check in the mornings to see how close to reality the HRRR and other models are doing.

The clouds are way more of a problem than any smoke, it shot up to 95 here 30 minutes ago but it's been mostly cloudy since then and temperatures have dropped, even on a land breeze day, the clouds screwed us out of 100 today.

Now I see why 100 degrees was much more common for the city and here between 1944-1966, it was much less cloudy and moist back then.

I will say this is a busted forecast because NO ONE expected it to be cloudy today in the afternoon.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The clouds are way more of a problem than any smoke, it shot up to 95 here 30 minutes ago but it's been mostly cloudy since then and temperatures have dropped, even on a land breeze day, the clouds screwed us out of 100 today.

Now I see why 100 degrees was much more common for the city and here between 1944-1966, it was much less cloudy and moist back then.

I will say this is a busted forecast because NO ONE expected it to be cloudy today in the afternoon.

None of the models had 100° today anyway. The heat was always expected to peak Tuesday into Wednesday.

Smoke only becomes an issue for temperatures when it’s thick enough. Even then the effect would only be a degree or two unless we have June 2023 levels which was historic due to the magnitude and closeness of the wildfires in Canada.

The current wildfires are further away in Canada so it hasn’t been as thick as 2023. But a few days ago the low level smoke was thick enough to drop the air quality.

[Roger Smith]

Today and Wednesday (30th) are the only two days of the year where four years share the record high for NYC. Today (97) is 1892, 1931, 1949 and 1999. For Wednesday 30th (98) the four years sharing the record are 1917, 1933, 1940 and 1988. In between on 29th, 1949 (99F) has sole possession. 

There are eight days during the year where the record high is shared by three years. Two of these fall on Aug 18 and 19 during the next notable relatively cool spell for record highs (97 is tops for Aug 15 to 25, the two three-way ties are both 94).

In between the two relatively cool intervals, July 31 to Aug 14 average record high is 99.8 F. Then again, from Aug 26 to Sep 3 the average returns to 100F, but most of those records are from two years, 1948 then 1953 (1929 had 99F on Sep 3). 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I hope this is a sign of a new global pattern of reduced sea breezes.  Maybe as we all heat up, oceans and land alike, sea breezes will be much less common.

Well the ridge axis has been further west than recent years. Recent summers it has been east of New England with more onshore flow. So this is why places like JFK have seen more 100° days with the increased westerly flow. 

 

[nycwinter]

not to bad today dewpoint only in the mid 60's.

[SACRUS]

 

94 / 68 in / out sun

[nycwinter]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

None of the models had 100° today anyway. The heat was always expected to peak Tuesday into Wednesday.

Smoke only becomes an issue for temperatures when it’s thick enough. Even then the effect would only be a degree or two unless we have June 2023 levels which was historic due to the magnitude and closeness of the wildfires in Canada.

The current wildfires are further away in Canada so it hasn’t been as thick as 2023. But a few days ago the low level smoke was thick enough to drop the air quality.

and when the smoke was very thick it dropped air temperatures by a few degrees..

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Well the ridge axis has been further west than recent years. Recent summers it has been east of New England with more onshore flow. So this is why places like JFK have seen more 100° days with the increased westerly flow. 

 

yes hopefully it's a cycle that's resetting itself.

there are many global cycles, probably many more than we know about.

 

[winterwx21]

92 with a dewpoint of 68 here right now. 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Today and Wednesday (30th) are the only two days of the year where four years share the record high for NYC. Today (97) is 1892, 1931, 1949 and 1999. For Wednesday 30th (98) the four years sharing the record are 1917, 1933, 1940 and 1988. In between on 29th, 1949 (99F) has sole possession. 

There are eight days during the year where the record high is shared by three years. Two of these fall on Aug 18 and 19 during the next notable relatively cool spell for record highs (97 is tops for Aug 15 to 25, the two three-way ties are both 94).

In between the two relatively cool intervals, July 31 to Aug 14 average record high is 99.8 F. Then again, from Aug 26 to Sep 3 the average returns to 100F, but most of those records are from two years, 1948 then 1953 (1929 had 99F on Sep 3). 

so much extreme heat in those years: 1944, 1948, 1949, 1953, 1955, 1966

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

None of the models had 100° today anyway. The heat was always expected to peak Tuesday into Wednesday.

Smoke only becomes an issue for temperatures when it’s thick enough. Even then the effect would only be a degree or two unless we have June 2023 levels which was historic due to the magnitude and closeness of the wildfires in Canada.

The current wildfires are further away in Canada so it hasn’t been as thick as 2023. But a few days ago the low level smoke was thick enough to drop the air quality.

Do you think EWR still has a shot at 100 today? It looks like everyone will fall a few degrees short.

[winterwarlock]

93/77/105

[Snowlover11]

90/70 feeling like 95

[jm1220]

Slow moving seabreeze today. It’s hung up just north of Sunrise Highway. 

[forkyfork]

latest euro extends the heat wave through thursday 

[dmillz25]

95/65 dews have dipped the last few hours

[doncat]

Note that some guidance doesn't show this at all for our area.... 

[nycwinter]

more comfortable feel today then it did yesterday.. it's never the heat it's always the dewpoint that matters in the summer..

[Wannabehippie]

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

more comfortable feel today then it did yesterday.. it's never the heat it's always the dewpoint that matters in the summer..

Temp 93, DP 68. That is pretty damn uncomfortable to me.

[binbisso]

57 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

93/77/105

Dp at newark is 63. Same at many other stations. Why is your dp so high?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

and when the smoke was very thick it dropped air temperatures by a few degrees..

The record breaking smoke back in June 2023 dropped the temperature by 5.4°F. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02214-3