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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


wdrag
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2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Clearing looks less likely and would lower range of the highs today - unless there is some rapid burning up of clouds.  The May Grey - Jun Gloom, July grey sky syndrome continues especially on weekends.

 

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Very sunny here in Garwood.  Disgusting outside.

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Parts of the region saw the mercury soar into the lower 90s today. LaGuardia Airport (92°) and Newark (94°) both reached 90° or above.

A front will cross the region this evening. It could trigger some scattered showers and thundershowers.

Behind the front, it will turn cooler and much less humid for tomorrow through the middle of next week. Tomorrow through Wednesday should feature bright sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures topping out mainly in the lower 80s. Low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday morning should be in the lower and middle 60s in New York City. Some outlying areas could see lows fall into the upper 50s, especially on Tuesday morning.

A brief surge of heat is likely for Thursday through Saturday. Much of the region will see the temperature top out near or above 90° during these days. Friday will likely be the hottest day with temperatures reaching the middle 90s in New York City and upper 90s to near 100° in the hot spots, including Newark.

Afterward, it will turn cooler, but readings will likely remain somewhat above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +14.28 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.456 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.1° (1.6° above normal). 

 

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