June 2025 Obs/Disco

[Damage In Tolland]

72 mph near Tip

https://x.com/wx1box/status/1930977229669912888?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I actually would like it warmer, but calling it as I see it. Can't let emotions get in the way unlike some.

Nope, I hear you, Just like the 13th rainy Saturday in a row coming up, Nothing we can do about it.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually would like it warmer, but calling it as I see it. Can't let emotions get in the way unlike some.

The thing is though it’s misleading because it’s not cool , chilly pattern. It’s still AN . The ACATT crew is thinking lots of 60’s/70’s with 30’s/ 40’s at night . Nothing wrong with low-upper 80’s in Junorch 

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

It may never hot again. wow

It'll come sneaking in... 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The thing is though it’s misleading because it’s not cool , chilly pattern. It’s still AN . The ACATT crew is thinking lots of 60’s/70’s with 30’s/ 40’s at night . Nothing wrong with low-upper 80’s in Junorch 

Not once did Scoots say anything about a cool, chilly pattern.

Who the hell is thinking "Looks like big heat is gone for a while" means 30s at night?

The mental gymnastics, projections, hyperbole and assumptions in here could keep a psychiatrist going for years.

If we as a science forum have gotten to the point where we can't call it like the models show, we've jumped the shark.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Humidity has arrived.  Last 3 days were 73/35, 78/44, 86/49 but today's low is about 60 and high maybe 75.  Started planting last Monday and it turned dry, as usual.  Had 2 TS do a 7-10 around me about 6 PM yesterday and today's southern Maine RA refuses to cross Rt 2.  Forecast says we get the garden watered tomorrow.

I'll be driving through your neighborhood later today on our way to Presque Isle for a couple of days and then P.E.I. for a week.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not once did Scoots say anything about a cool, chilly pattern.

Who the hell is thinking "Looks like big heat is gone for a while" means 30s at night?

The mental gymnastics, projections, hyperbole and assumptions in here could keep a psychiatrist going for years.

If we as a science forum have gotten to the point where we can't call it like the models show, we've jumped the shark.

Oh there’s a few of them that are thinking exactly that. If they looked , they see an overall AN pattern with no huge heat 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not once did Scoots say anything about a cool, chilly pattern.

Who the hell is thinking "Looks like big heat is gone for a while" means 30s at night?

The mental gymnastics, projections, hyperbole and assumptions in here could keep a psychiatrist going for years.

If we as a science forum have gotten to the point where we can't call it like the models show, we've jumped the shark.

You can only lead him to the bottle....

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You can only lead him to the bottle....

Bottle in front of me? Or a frontal lobotomy?

[weatherwiz]

mesoanalysis isn't looking bad at all. In fact, shear is even "slightly" better than I thought it would be. Looking at the 12z ALB sounding, it looks like there is a little wind max between H5-H7 rolling through which is enhancing vertical shear a bit.

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh there’s a few of them that are thinking exactly that. If they looked , they see an overall AN pattern with no huge heat 

Have you looked?  Because I honestly don't know if I believe you.

I just did (because it's fairly easy to do so) and I'm seeing most ensembles are showing a normal temperature regime.  GEFS are probably too cool, but I'm imagining that @CoastalWx also looked and arrived at his conclusion after seeing the H5 pattern and resulting set-ups.

And I'm not calling for a cold pattern, before this gets spun as "some are calling for 40s and 50s".  This is model data on a science forum.  Read it how you want to.

EPS Days 8 - 15

GEFS Days 8 - 15... this is colder.

[weatherwiz]

The upcoming pattern isn't going to feature sustained heat/humidity. It is going to be an active patterns with fronts and shortwaves. With this, we'll get some hot/humid days mixed in, especially ahead of systems followed by a return to more seasonal conditions. 

Our perspectives of what should be happening are way out of whack. This looks like a much more typical stretch of weather for this time of year. We shouldn't be building in extended heat/humidity regimes early or mid-June. We should still be active with fronts and varying between a few days of heat/humidity followed by several days of seasonal weather. Building in extended heat/humidity shouldn't really happen until you move into and through July. 

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Have you looked?  Because I honestly don't know if I believe you.

I just did (because it's fairly easy to do so) and I'm seeing most ensembles are showing a normal temperature regime.  GEFS are probably too cool, but I'm imagining that @CoastalWx also looked and arrived at his conclusion after seeing the H5 pattern and resulting set-ups.

And I'm not calling for a cold pattern, before this gets spun as "some are calling for 40s and 50s".  This is model data on a science forum.  Read it how you want to.

EPS Days 8 - 15

GEFS Days 8 - 15... this is colder.

TORCH! 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Have you looked?  Because I honestly don't know if I believe you.

I just did (because it's fairly easy to do so) and I'm seeing most ensembles are showing a normal temperature regime.  GEFS are probably too cool, but I'm imagining that @CoastalWx also looked and arrived at his conclusion after seeing the H5 pattern and resulting set-ups.

And I'm not calling for a cold pattern, before this gets spun as "some are calling for 40s and 50s".  This is model data on a science forum.  Read it how you want to.

EPS Days 8 - 15

GEFS Days 8 - 15... this is colder.

I actually only looked at the EPS. And yeah, it's not a hot look, nor cool. It will lean a little AN I think...but we aren't getting big heat with a H5 ridge 1500 miles to the west. 

[dryslot]

Know wheres near a HHH look on those maps.

[kdxken]

It's finally out! 

https://epawaweather.com/epawas-june-6th-long-range-forecast/

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Know wheres near a HHH look on those maps.

Hazy Hops and Hungover?

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually only looked at the EPS. And yeah, it's not a hot look, nor cool. It will lean a little AN I think...but we aren't getting big heat with a H5 ridge 1500 miles to the west. 

Yeah I’d toss those GEFS temps… take +2 on most of that.  So it’s normal to slightly AN… but it’s like Wiz said.. this is normal June.  We like to rush seasons in.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hazy Hops and Hungover?

lol, Looks like 70/50's for hi/lows up here next week.

[klw]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh. Heat is done. Even that period after next weekend looks meh.

I think we can agree that Summer's back is broken.  Sure we may see a warm or even hot day here or there but soon we will be sipping hot fresh cider and peeping at leaves.

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually only looked at the EPS. And yeah, it's not a hot look, nor cool. It will lean a little AN I think...but we aren't getting big heat with a H5 ridge 1500 miles to the west. 

Exactly 

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I’d toss those GEFS temps… take +2 on most of that.  So it’s normal to slightly AN… but it’s like Wiz said.. this is normal June.  We like to rush seasons in.

Rush 'em in and rush 'em out.

Except winter of course, unless it's too icy, too cold, or doesn't snow early or often enough. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

I'll be driving through your neighborhood later today on our way to Presque Isle for a couple of days and then P.E.I. for a week.

If you're traveling on US RT 2, you'll get within a mile of my place, though it's 2 miles by road - from the blinker in New Sharon by Sandy River Farm Supply (one of the cheaper gas places in the area - $2.929 last I looked).  Should be a nice ride up I-95, somewhat slower HUL to PQI.  The pullout north from Medway has a great view of Katahdin, possibly compromised by smoke.  (Maybe you've already been through there before and I'm not offering real news. )

[ROOSTA]

Going to be a HAIL-OF-A-DAY.

[rimetree]

1 hour ago, klw said:

I think we can agree that Summer's back is broken.  Sure we may see a warm or even hot day here or there but soon we will be sipping hot fresh cider and peeping at leaves.

Predicting first "shot across the bow" in a couple of months. 

[WxWatcher007]

Mesoscale Discussion 1145
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

   Areas affected...Southern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061601Z - 061800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be
   possible with multicell storms after 18-19z (2-3p EDT) this
   afternoon.  The need for a watch is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating is ongoing across southern New
   England along and south of a diffuse baroclinic/differential heating
   zone.  As surface temperatures warm through the mid-upper 80s with
   mid-upper 60s dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg with
   minimal convective inhibition.  By early-mid afternoon, widely
   scattered thunderstorm development will become probable along the
   diffuse baroclinic zone/buoyancy gradient.  Steep low-level lapse
   rates, DCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg and precipitation loading could favor
   isolated wind damage with downbursts, while the moderately large
   buoyancy will be sufficient for marginally severe hail.  Vertical
   shear will remain relatively weak and the storms are currently
   expected to remain only loosely organized, so the need for a watch
   this afternoon is uncertain.

   ..Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025

 

[dendrite]

@OceanStWx Do you guys have the official high for CON from yesterday? I know the 93° was before the outage. If I had to put odds on the high estimate I think I’d go…

95° 50%
94° 40%
96° 10%

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

@OceanStWx Do you guys have the official high for CON from yesterday? I know the 93° was before the outage. If I had to put odds on the high estimate I think I’d go…

95° 50%
94° 40%
96° 10%

One of our techs is there now, but I'm not hopeful for recovering it.

[CoastalWx]

Wow there were 3” hail reports in NY state yesterday.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Exactly 

normal June is still very warm, they're drunk