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June 2025 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Gorgeous out today top 5 days this summer en route next 2 days..

Euro consistently showing 100-105 for a large swath of the East Coast Tuesday.. Georgia all the way up into Boston Metro..

Beautiful morning.

I’m still soft selling the Euro but I’m getting more intrigued. 

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that above is why this heat may truncate mid week while that large synoptic appeal of that ridge is still in place.  That models are sort of eroding the ridge out from underneath ...like water under a sandcastle.  

The problem is, that overactive jet (anachronistic for late June) up there fits the seasonal trend of ... basically a tendency for over active jets.  There's a reason the eastern half of the mid latitude continent has just gone through the windiest AM month span in 50 years ( check that but something like that...).  Anyway, these powerful jets tunneling through the skies over N Ontario will tend to mechanize polar highs ( summer versions of them...).  Regardless of season, the +PP then suppresses the boundary S, under cutting the ridge, and that ends the heat.  Winter or summer, the fronts seldom end up parked through here... they end up either S, or, the whole construct turns out wrong and they don't come. But at least in my experience, lodging right here is rare.

It's possible the models back off this jet bomb up there...which may mitigate some of that going on.. but we'll see.

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Probably attribution/CC -related in some way but I have noticing this "something's wrong" effect that no one's really noticing going on all over the place, for a few years for that matter. They're subtle indicators of a "cancerous climate" if you ask me - but heh...I'm just a creative writer on the side.   

But this below is an example.  It's not that unusual to park anomalies right next to each other, as general practice - it's the degree of the deltas that is the unusual aspect. 

I mean look at this shit up there - that's gotta be unusual relative to climate one would think   Meanwhile, at this time, there are 595 heights over PA and probably mid 90s heat from PHL to PWM ( 99 hours off the 00z run).  I have a memory like a steel trap for patterns ...going all the way back. It's my own Rain Man ability ( hey everyone's got one).  I don't recall seeing snow events after the Solsitice, that far S that often, and certainly not when the mid latitudes, right adjacently, are trying host a heat wave.  

image.png.c82927ede37fd1797ae4a4ef21e67d2e.png

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11 minutes ago, radarman said:

That line turned out to be a massive fail as well.   

Brutal. 

The 3km pretty much nailed the whole evolution in the midwest the day prior while the HRRR was awful...I thought maybe that was a good omen for yesterday...nope. 

The pre-frontal really screwed us yesterday and not having the steep lapse rates as advertised. Maybe if we did have the steep lapse rates that stuff with the pre-frontal would have been more intense. 

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39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It is roaring here . Power out !

Wind is just beginning to pick up here.  1st strong wind after leaf-out, will find those trees weakened since last fall.

Gut 7-10ed twice last evening, with TS passing SE and NW simultaneously at 7-7:30 and 11-11:30.  Got 0.02" from the edge of the 1st pair though Farmington had some brief RA+ then, maybe 1-2 tenths while we were at a restaurant celebrating our anniversary - married exactly 106 years after Juneteenth.

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