Drought Buster From The Gulf?

[dailylurker]

I've been watching this one sitting over the western gulf. It's not tropical but it has the tropical vibe. If models are correct we could ALL see a significant rainfall Monday night through Wednesday. The weather that follows looks beautiful. 

[WxUSAF]

O/U 0.3” for MBY

[dailylurker]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

O/U 0.3” for MBY

I'm going with my normal .05 lol

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

I'm going with my normal .05 lol

12z euro says I’m about a factor of 10 too low and you’re about a factor of 50 lol. But I’ll keep the betting line where is is for now

[nw baltimore wx]

I’m going bold and 1.01” by sunset Thursday in mby.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Can't wait to see how we get screwed again this time.

[yoda]

Afternoon AFD from LWX makes it sound good

The upper low will continue to slowly drift northeastward from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley Monday
into Monday night. As this occurs, showers will gradually
overspread the area from southwest to northeast. As it stands
now, most guidance holds precipitation off in the DC Metro
until the late afternoon or early evening hours, with
precipitation not starting until after dark Monday night around
Baltimore. The rain may start to become steadier and moderate
to locally heavy at times by late Monday night, especially
across Central Virginia. By Monday night, model soundings show
deep, saturated profiles, with very limited instability and
precipitable water values closing in on 1.5 inches. The lack of
instability should limit rainfall rates somewhat, with most of
the rain falling as a steady, soaking rain as opposed to very
heavy downpours that you`d typically see with a summer
thunderstorm. Still, model guidance hints that rainfall totals
may reach around 1-2 inches across Central Virginia by daybreak
Tuesday, with more rain expected to fall Tuesday into at least
Wednesday (see long term discussion below).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A highly amplified and blocky synoptic pattern sets up for a
majority of next week. The initial feature of interest is a slow
moving closed low which is currently spinning over the Deep South.
This deep and anomalous system is set to become more negatively-
tilted in time while crossing the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.
Eventually this trough begins to evolve into more of an open wave as
it treks toward the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week. The slow
forward motion of this particular system may not see the trough axis
pass by until Thursday morning. At this point, the associated
surface fronts exit into the coastal Atlantic as high pressure
briefly returns. Mid/upper heights begin to build in earnest by late
in the work week ahead of the next weather maker.

What is currently a strong upper trough off the West Coast will
undergo a complex evolution across the nation over the next several
days. As expected, a large array of spread is noted across the board
when evaluating all recent guidance. The overall pattern shift does
favor unsettled conditions on Friday into portions of next weekend.

Looking more closely at Tuesday into Wednesday, the mentioned closed
low will tap into anomalous Gulf moisture. Characterized by
anomalies around 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above normal, this
system will interact with strong dynamics with the upper low to
produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Ensembles support
around 2 to 3 inches of rain during a 24 to 48 hour period.
Depending on how much of this falls at once, there will be some
flood threat that emerges. However, this will depend on location and
intensity of such showers.

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Can't wait to see how we get screwed again this time.

The last "event" was one of the biggest short term busts in recent memory. Forecast rainfall totals here before last minute adjustments as the event was unfolding: 1-1.5"

Total rainfall here: 0.05" 

Luckily prior events performed/overperformed and got my area out of the drought. Really need a solid inch of rain now though as it has gotten pretty dry again.

[high risk]

People on the east side of the Potomac are going to truly hate the morning hi-res runs.  

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, high risk said:

People on the east side of the Potomac are going to truly hate the morning hi-res runs.  

12z HRRR isn't bad and the globals depict areas to the east and NE getting some decent scraps beyond hour 60. All remains to be seen.

[dailylurker]

4 hours ago, high risk said:

People on the east side of the Potomac are going to truly hate the morning hi-res runs.  

Another boring non event. Oh joy lol

[yoda]

FFWs likely coming tomorrow 

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday will act as a day of transition ahead of a wet pattern
setting up through around mid-week. The mentioned upper low
swirling across the Deep South is part of a larger scale
blocking regime (Rex Block). As a deep upper trough swings into
the western U.S., this will help nudge the stalled downstream
upper low. As this feature gains latitude in time, so will its
immense moisture pool, strong jet forcing, and overall shift in
sensible weather. Its slow poleward movement will carry some
risk of flooding, particularly where upslope trajectories come
into play (i.e., the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge
Mountains). Although the local area is in continued drought
conditions, forecast rainfall amounts are high enough to cause
some flooding concerns late Monday through at least Tuesday
night.

The latest forecast package calls for rain to arrive into the
Potomac Highlands and central Shenandoah Valley by Monday
morning. Amounts should initially be light, particularly in
light of initial dry boundary layer conditions which may cause
some evaporation to occur. However, eventual moistening of the
column is expected which will gradually increase overall
precipitation efficiency. The swath of showers is expected to
track northeastward in time before reaching the I-95 metros by
around the evening rush hour. Despite all of the increased cloud
cover, high temperatures should still reach the low/mid 70s,
with 60s more likely across the central Shenandoah Valley back
into the Alleghenies.

Conditions continue to deterioriate into the night with
southeasterly moist advection further increasing. This moisture
plume appears tied all the way down through the southern Gulf of
America into the western Caribbean. Characterized by
precipitable waters around 1.50 to 1.60 inches, this is easily
1.5 to 2 standard deviations above average for mid-May. Not
surprisingly, forecast rainfall amounts are quite high, but are
also variable due to uncertainies in the upper low track.

By Tuesday morning, the main upper low is expected to lift
across the Mid-South toward the southern Appalachians. The
surface reflection of this system weakens as the upper low
slowly begins to fill, but the quality of moisture remains
intact. Tuesday will offer plenty of rainfall with 6-hour totals
in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range, locally higher toward the Blue
Ridge. Given how spread out this event occurs over, much of this
rain could prove to be beneficial in nature. However, this will
less likely be the case along and east of the Blue Ridge where
storm totals could be double the rest of the area. Current
forecast storm totals are around 1.50 to 2.00 inches, but with
2.50 to 4.00 inches in the mentioned mountainous locations.
While Flood Watches are not out yet, these will likely be
considered during subsequent shifts.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

FFWs likely coming tomorrow 

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday will act as a day of transition ahead of a wet pattern
setting up through around mid-week. The mentioned upper low
swirling across the Deep South is part of a larger scale
blocking regime (Rex Block). As a deep upper trough swings into
the western U.S., this will help nudge the stalled downstream
upper low. As this feature gains latitude in time, so will its
immense moisture pool, strong jet forcing, and overall shift in
sensible weather. Its slow poleward movement will carry some
risk of flooding, particularly where upslope trajectories come
into play (i.e., the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge
Mountains). Although the local area is in continued drought
conditions, forecast rainfall amounts are high enough to cause
some flooding concerns late Monday through at least Tuesday
night.

The latest forecast package calls for rain to arrive into the
Potomac Highlands and central Shenandoah Valley by Monday
morning. Amounts should initially be light, particularly in
light of initial dry boundary layer conditions which may cause
some evaporation to occur. However, eventual moistening of the
column is expected which will gradually increase overall
precipitation efficiency. The swath of showers is expected to
track northeastward in time before reaching the I-95 metros by
around the evening rush hour. Despite all of the increased cloud
cover, high temperatures should still reach the low/mid 70s,
with 60s more likely across the central Shenandoah Valley back
into the Alleghenies.

Conditions continue to deterioriate into the night with
southeasterly moist advection further increasing. This moisture
plume appears tied all the way down through the southern Gulf of
America into the western Caribbean. Characterized by
precipitable waters around 1.50 to 1.60 inches, this is easily
1.5 to 2 standard deviations above average for mid-May. Not
surprisingly, forecast rainfall amounts are quite high, but are
also variable due to uncertainies in the upper low track.

By Tuesday morning, the main upper low is expected to lift
across the Mid-South toward the southern Appalachians. The
surface reflection of this system weakens as the upper low
slowly begins to fill, but the quality of moisture remains
intact. Tuesday will offer plenty of rainfall with 6-hour totals
in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range, locally higher toward the Blue
Ridge. Given how spread out this event occurs over, much of this
rain could prove to be beneficial in nature. However, this will
less likely be the case along and east of the Blue Ridge where
storm totals could be double the rest of the area. Current
forecast storm totals are around 1.50 to 2.00 inches, but with
2.50 to 4.00 inches in the mentioned mountainous locations.
While Flood Watches are not out yet, these will likely be
considered during subsequent shifts.

Higher terrain to the west, esp upslope areas. Probably not in the metros.

12z Euro probably has the right idea.

LOL Gulf of America in a NWS AFD. Pathetic.

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Another boring non event. Oh joy lol

You know, GFS actually looks better compared to its runs yesterday.

[LongRanger]

If we keep getting these "drought busters" the area is going to become a desert. Instead we need a "build an ark" event in which case we might net half an inch.

[JenkinsJinkies]

35 minutes ago, LongRanger said:

If we keep getting these "drought busters" the area is going to become a desert. Instead we need a "build an ark" event in which case we might net half an inch.

QPF looks good actually.

[Chris78]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Higher terrain to the west, esp upslope areas. Probably not in the metros.

12z Euro probably has the right idea.

LOL Gulf of America in a NWS AFD. Pathetic.

 

Yeap.  Pathetic 

[high risk]

11 hours ago, CAPE said:

12z HRRR isn't bad and the globals depict areas to the east and NE getting some decent scraps beyond hour 60. All remains to be seen.

         Yeah, the CAMs this evening look more like the earlier globals with decent rains from the Bay to all points west.    Still not as good of a consistent signal for the Eastern Shore, but it does seem like even those areas should eventually do at least ok (later Tuesday into Wednesday??).

[yoda]

13 hours ago, CAPE said:

Higher terrain to the west, esp upslope areas. Probably not in the metros.

12z Euro probably has the right idea.

LOL Gulf of America in a NWS AFD. Pathetic.

 

Correct so far with your call re watches 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
310 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-507-508-121515-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0004.250513T0000Z-250514T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-
Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central
Virginia Blue Ridge-
310 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northwest, and western Virginia,
  including the following areas, in central Virginia, Albemarle,
  Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In northwest
  Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page,
  Rappahannock, Shenandoah and Warren. In western Virginia, Augusta
  and Rockingham.

* WHEN...From this evening through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks,
  streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Low-water
  crossings may be flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - While showers will spread into the area today, a prolonged
    period of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms
    is expected tonight into Tuesday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
    inches are likely, with locally higher amounts possible along
    the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. This rainfall
    may lead to scattered instances of flooding.
  - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety
    and preparedness information.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.