Drought Buster From The Gulf?

[dailylurker]

I've been watching this one sitting over the western gulf. It's not tropical but it has the tropical vibe. If models are correct we could ALL see a significant rainfall Monday night through Wednesday. The weather that follows looks beautiful. 

[WxUSAF]

O/U 0.3” for MBY

[dailylurker]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

O/U 0.3” for MBY

I'm going with my normal .05 lol

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

I'm going with my normal .05 lol

12z euro says I’m about a factor of 10 too low and you’re about a factor of 50 lol. But I’ll keep the betting line where is is for now

[nw baltimore wx]

I’m going bold and 1.01” by sunset Thursday in mby.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Can't wait to see how we get screwed again this time.

[yoda]

Afternoon AFD from LWX makes it sound good

The upper low will continue to slowly drift northeastward from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley Monday
into Monday night. As this occurs, showers will gradually
overspread the area from southwest to northeast. As it stands
now, most guidance holds precipitation off in the DC Metro
until the late afternoon or early evening hours, with
precipitation not starting until after dark Monday night around
Baltimore. The rain may start to become steadier and moderate
to locally heavy at times by late Monday night, especially
across Central Virginia. By Monday night, model soundings show
deep, saturated profiles, with very limited instability and
precipitable water values closing in on 1.5 inches. The lack of
instability should limit rainfall rates somewhat, with most of
the rain falling as a steady, soaking rain as opposed to very
heavy downpours that you`d typically see with a summer
thunderstorm. Still, model guidance hints that rainfall totals
may reach around 1-2 inches across Central Virginia by daybreak
Tuesday, with more rain expected to fall Tuesday into at least
Wednesday (see long term discussion below).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A highly amplified and blocky synoptic pattern sets up for a
majority of next week. The initial feature of interest is a slow
moving closed low which is currently spinning over the Deep South.
This deep and anomalous system is set to become more negatively-
tilted in time while crossing the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.
Eventually this trough begins to evolve into more of an open wave as
it treks toward the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week. The slow
forward motion of this particular system may not see the trough axis
pass by until Thursday morning. At this point, the associated
surface fronts exit into the coastal Atlantic as high pressure
briefly returns. Mid/upper heights begin to build in earnest by late
in the work week ahead of the next weather maker.

What is currently a strong upper trough off the West Coast will
undergo a complex evolution across the nation over the next several
days. As expected, a large array of spread is noted across the board
when evaluating all recent guidance. The overall pattern shift does
favor unsettled conditions on Friday into portions of next weekend.

Looking more closely at Tuesday into Wednesday, the mentioned closed
low will tap into anomalous Gulf moisture. Characterized by
anomalies around 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above normal, this
system will interact with strong dynamics with the upper low to
produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Ensembles support
around 2 to 3 inches of rain during a 24 to 48 hour period.
Depending on how much of this falls at once, there will be some
flood threat that emerges. However, this will depend on location and
intensity of such showers.

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Can't wait to see how we get screwed again this time.

The last "event" was one of the biggest short term busts in recent memory. Forecast rainfall totals here before last minute adjustments as the event was unfolding: 1-1.5"

Total rainfall here: 0.05" 

Luckily prior events performed/overperformed and got my area out of the drought. Really need a solid inch of rain now though as it has gotten pretty dry again.