mitchnick Posted Friday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:54 PM 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The weighted analog mean produces the follow snowfall predictions BWI: 18.1" IAD: 18.3" DCA: 14" December and January average below normal temps. February much above normal. My current snowfall forecast is slightly above this but I simply added a small bump for the "we're due" index. We've been pretty unlucky lately, maybe we get one good hit and this is that rare nina that ends up slightly above normal snowfall. They do happen once in a while and we are due for one. But for what it's worth the composite mean beat my "gut" adjustments 3 of the last 4 years. So... My call BWI: 20" IAD: 23" DCA: 15" Those numbers bode well up here/you as well as in Mappy's neck of the woods, on north. Pattern you posted screams more traditional Niña results i.e. a 40N winter. Which "used to mean" we "could" still pull out an event or 2 even with February H5 looking like what you posted. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted Friday at 07:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:32 PM I’ll take January 1996 and call it a winter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Friday at 08:09 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:09 PM 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Those numbers bode well up here/you as well as in Mappy's neck of the woods, on north. Pattern you posted screams more traditional Niña results i.e. a 40N winter. Which "used to mean" we "could" still pull out an event or 2 even with February H5 looking like what you posted. We'll see. I’ll believe it when it happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Sunday at 01:41 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:41 AM On 11/12/2025 at 2:39 PM, psuhoffman said: That’s my take also. Using one cherry picked location (where a single fluke storm hit) from one season to say “its snowing more to the south” is flawed methodology. If you pull back and use even a 10 year period or longer then it becomes apparent it is not in fact snowing more to our south. Or they fail to realize that the area to our south is a higher elevation when they point out West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM On 11/14/2025 at 11:53 AM, WxUSAF said: That February pattern looks like shit the blinds, but if Arctic air is entrenched to our NW, we can get some CAD events. Another way we scored some snow (and let me emphasize "SOME", we're talking 1-3 or 2-4 type events here usually) during that pattern was with a follow up wave timed up right behind a cold front. The cold to our NW can press east behind a lakes cutter but it's not going to last...but if you get a strung out boundary with multiple waves we can get clipped with one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 05:23 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:23 PM On 11/13/2025 at 8:15 AM, Weather Will said: WP forecast is for slightly below average snowfall and the article is a good reference because it provides a summary/link of the local forecaster's winter forecasts. General theme is more snow for the NW zones this year. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/11/13/dc-winter-forecast-snow-2025-2026/ Forecasting a seasonal total of 18" of snow along and west of I-81 is a sure sign they're leaning towards a bad winter for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 05:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:36 PM 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: also, anything before Dec 10 is gravy for 80% of NE/MA posters on this board. couldn't care less if it takes a few more days to get things going 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: models often rush the progression of cold air eastward in -EPO patterns. i would say after the 5th is when snow risks increase for many in the Northeast in the same vein, i don't think much has really changed in terms of the overall progression. MJO is moving along, the SPV will become very weak and increase the shot at a -NAO spell, and we should see a BN to solidly BN December also, when you have a -WPO/-EPO (and likely a -NAO at some point), it is really, really difficult to have a truly bad period since there's so much cold air displaced into Canada and the CONUS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted yesterday at 07:11 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:11 PM 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Forecasting a seasonal total of 18" of snow along and west of I-81 is a sure sign they're leaning towards a bad winter for snow lovers. When was the last time they were right?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 2 hours ago, ravensrule said: When was the last time they were right?. 30% bust 50% normal 20% boom 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago WBAL winter forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL winter forecast -16" I knew he was conservative, but... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 29 minutes ago, mitchnick said: -16" I knew he was conservative, but... You think that’s low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: You think that’s low? I think he's making a joke about it looking like it says negative 16 inches, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I think he's making a joke about it looking like it says negative 16 inches, lol lol oh ha. Didn’t even catch that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL winter forecast He is the most conservative met i have ever seen. He is always playing catch up. I would sooner trust Justin Berk, at least he has faith in the flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 19 hours ago, yoda said: 30% bust 50% normal 20% boom "We're sorry that it snowed in January. We'll do our best to forecast 75 and sunny by Valentine's Day." 18 hours ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL winter forecast Honestly that's not as low as I thought they would forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: "We're sorry that it snowed in January. We'll do our best to forecast 75 and sunny by Valentine's Day." Honestly that's not as low as I thought they would forecast. Welp, I went even lower than him. I'd be happy to be wrong, in our favor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Welp, I went even lower than him. I'd be happy to be wrong, in our favor. We're due for a Jebman winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 25 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Welp, I went even lower than him. I'd be happy to be wrong, in our favor. You calling for less than -16 inches? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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