Winter 2025-26

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The weighted analog mean produces the follow snowfall predictions 

BWI: 18.1"

IAD: 18.3"

DCA: 14"

December and January average below normal temps.  February much above normal.  

My current snowfall forecast is slightly above this but I simply added a small bump for the "we're due" index.  We've been pretty unlucky lately, maybe we get one good hit and this is that rare nina that ends up slightly above normal snowfall.  They do happen once in a while and we are due for one.  But for what it's worth the composite mean beat my "gut" adjustments 3 of the last 4 years.  So... 

My call

BWI: 20"

IAD: 23"

DCA: 15"

Those numbers bode well up here/you as well as in Mappy's neck of the woods, on north. Pattern you posted screams more traditional Niña results i.e. a 40N winter. Which "used to mean" we "could" still pull out an event or 2 even with February H5 looking like what you posted. We'll see.

[osfan24]

I’ll take January 1996 and call it a winter.

[mappy]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Those numbers bode well up here/you as well as in Mappy's neck of the woods, on north. Pattern you posted screams more traditional Niña results i.e. a 40N winter. Which "used to mean" we "could" still pull out an event or 2 even with February H5 looking like what you posted. We'll see.

I’ll believe it when it happens. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

On 11/12/2025 at 2:39 PM, psuhoffman said:

That’s my take also. Using one cherry picked location (where a single fluke storm hit) from one season to say “its snowing more to the south” is flawed methodology.  If you pull back and use even a 10 year period or longer then it becomes apparent it is not in fact snowing more to our south. 

Or they fail to realize that the area to our south is a higher elevation when they point out West Virginia.

[psuhoffman]

On 11/14/2025 at 11:53 AM, WxUSAF said:

That February pattern looks like shit the blinds, but if Arctic air is entrenched to our NW, we can get some CAD events. 

Another way we scored some snow (and let me emphasize "SOME", we're talking 1-3 or 2-4 type events here usually) during that pattern was with a follow up wave timed up right behind a cold front.  The cold to our NW can press east behind a lakes cutter but it's not going to last...but if you get a strung out boundary with multiple waves we can get clipped with one.  

[Eskimo Joe]

On 11/13/2025 at 8:15 AM, Weather Will said:

WP forecast is for slightly below average snowfall and the article is a good reference because it provides a summary/link of the local forecaster's winter forecasts. General theme is more snow for the NW zones this year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/11/13/dc-winter-forecast-snow-2025-2026/

 

 

Forecasting a seasonal total of 18" of snow along and west of I-81 is a sure sign they're leaning towards a bad winter for snow lovers.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, anything before Dec 10 is gravy for 80% of NE/MA posters on this board. couldn't care less if it takes a few more days to get things going

 

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

models often rush the progression of cold air eastward in -EPO patterns. i would say after the 5th is when snow risks increase for many in the Northeast

in the same vein, i don't think much has really changed in terms of the overall progression. MJO is moving along, the SPV will become very weak and increase the shot at a -NAO spell, and we should see a BN to solidly BN December

also, when you have a -WPO/-EPO (and likely a -NAO at some point), it is really, really difficult to have a truly bad period since there's so much cold air displaced into Canada and the CONUS

 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Forecasting a seasonal total of 18" of snow along and west of I-81 is a sure sign they're leaning towards a bad winter for snow lovers.

When was the last time they were right?.