Winter 2025-26

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The weighted analog mean produces the follow snowfall predictions 

BWI: 18.1"

IAD: 18.3"

DCA: 14"

December and January average below normal temps.  February much above normal.  

My current snowfall forecast is slightly above this but I simply added a small bump for the "we're due" index.  We've been pretty unlucky lately, maybe we get one good hit and this is that rare nina that ends up slightly above normal snowfall.  They do happen once in a while and we are due for one.  But for what it's worth the composite mean beat my "gut" adjustments 3 of the last 4 years.  So... 

My call

BWI: 20"

IAD: 23"

DCA: 15"

Those numbers bode well up here/you as well as in Mappy's neck of the woods, on north. Pattern you posted screams more traditional Niña results i.e. a 40N winter. Which "used to mean" we "could" still pull out an event or 2 even with February H5 looking like what you posted. We'll see.

[osfan24]

I’ll take January 1996 and call it a winter.

[mappy]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Those numbers bode well up here/you as well as in Mappy's neck of the woods, on north. Pattern you posted screams more traditional Niña results i.e. a 40N winter. Which "used to mean" we "could" still pull out an event or 2 even with February H5 looking like what you posted. We'll see.

I’ll believe it when it happens. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

On 11/12/2025 at 2:39 PM, psuhoffman said:

That’s my take also. Using one cherry picked location (where a single fluke storm hit) from one season to say “its snowing more to the south” is flawed methodology.  If you pull back and use even a 10 year period or longer then it becomes apparent it is not in fact snowing more to our south. 

Or they fail to realize that the area to our south is a higher elevation when they point out West Virginia.

[psuhoffman]

On 11/14/2025 at 11:53 AM, WxUSAF said:

That February pattern looks like shit the blinds, but if Arctic air is entrenched to our NW, we can get some CAD events. 

Another way we scored some snow (and let me emphasize "SOME", we're talking 1-3 or 2-4 type events here usually) during that pattern was with a follow up wave timed up right behind a cold front.  The cold to our NW can press east behind a lakes cutter but it's not going to last...but if you get a strung out boundary with multiple waves we can get clipped with one.