mitchnick Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The weighted analog mean produces the follow snowfall predictions BWI: 18.1" IAD: 18.3" DCA: 14" December and January average below normal temps. February much above normal. My current snowfall forecast is slightly above this but I simply added a small bump for the "we're due" index. We've been pretty unlucky lately, maybe we get one good hit and this is that rare nina that ends up slightly above normal snowfall. They do happen once in a while and we are due for one. But for what it's worth the composite mean beat my "gut" adjustments 3 of the last 4 years. So... My call BWI: 20" IAD: 23" DCA: 15" Those numbers bode well up here/you as well as in Mappy's neck of the woods, on north. Pattern you posted screams more traditional Niña results i.e. a 40N winter. Which "used to mean" we "could" still pull out an event or 2 even with February H5 looking like what you posted. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 I’ll take January 1996 and call it a winter. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Those numbers bode well up here/you as well as in Mappy's neck of the woods, on north. Pattern you posted screams more traditional Niña results i.e. a 40N winter. Which "used to mean" we "could" still pull out an event or 2 even with February H5 looking like what you posted. We'll see. I’ll believe it when it happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted November 16 Share Posted November 16 On 11/12/2025 at 2:39 PM, psuhoffman said: That’s my take also. Using one cherry picked location (where a single fluke storm hit) from one season to say “its snowing more to the south” is flawed methodology. If you pull back and use even a 10 year period or longer then it becomes apparent it is not in fact snowing more to our south. Or they fail to realize that the area to our south is a higher elevation when they point out West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 On 11/14/2025 at 11:53 AM, WxUSAF said: That February pattern looks like shit the blinds, but if Arctic air is entrenched to our NW, we can get some CAD events. Another way we scored some snow (and let me emphasize "SOME", we're talking 1-3 or 2-4 type events here usually) during that pattern was with a follow up wave timed up right behind a cold front. The cold to our NW can press east behind a lakes cutter but it's not going to last...but if you get a strung out boundary with multiple waves we can get clipped with one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 On 11/13/2025 at 8:15 AM, Weather Will said: WP forecast is for slightly below average snowfall and the article is a good reference because it provides a summary/link of the local forecaster's winter forecasts. General theme is more snow for the NW zones this year. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/11/13/dc-winter-forecast-snow-2025-2026/ Forecasting a seasonal total of 18" of snow along and west of I-81 is a sure sign they're leaning towards a bad winter for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: also, anything before Dec 10 is gravy for 80% of NE/MA posters on this board. couldn't care less if it takes a few more days to get things going 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: models often rush the progression of cold air eastward in -EPO patterns. i would say after the 5th is when snow risks increase for many in the Northeast in the same vein, i don't think much has really changed in terms of the overall progression. MJO is moving along, the SPV will become very weak and increase the shot at a -NAO spell, and we should see a BN to solidly BN December also, when you have a -WPO/-EPO (and likely a -NAO at some point), it is really, really difficult to have a truly bad period since there's so much cold air displaced into Canada and the CONUS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Forecasting a seasonal total of 18" of snow along and west of I-81 is a sure sign they're leaning towards a bad winter for snow lovers. When was the last time they were right?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 2 hours ago, ravensrule said: When was the last time they were right?. 30% bust 50% normal 20% boom 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 WBAL winter forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL winter forecast -16" I knew he was conservative, but... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 29 minutes ago, mitchnick said: -16" I knew he was conservative, but... You think that’s low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: You think that’s low? I think he's making a joke about it looking like it says negative 16 inches, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I think he's making a joke about it looking like it says negative 16 inches, lol lol oh ha. Didn’t even catch that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL winter forecast He is the most conservative met i have ever seen. He is always playing catch up. I would sooner trust Justin Berk, at least he has faith in the flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 19 hours ago, yoda said: 30% bust 50% normal 20% boom "We're sorry that it snowed in January. We'll do our best to forecast 75 and sunny by Valentine's Day." 18 hours ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL winter forecast Honestly that's not as low as I thought they would forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: "We're sorry that it snowed in January. We'll do our best to forecast 75 and sunny by Valentine's Day." Honestly that's not as low as I thought they would forecast. Welp, I went even lower than him. I'd be happy to be wrong, in our favor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Welp, I went even lower than him. I'd be happy to be wrong, in our favor. We're due for a Jebman winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 25 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Welp, I went even lower than him. I'd be happy to be wrong, in our favor. You calling for less than -16 inches? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 4 hours ago, cbmclean said: You calling for less than -16 inches? Yes. -50 inches Joking aside, I’m thinking more a 2000-01 / 2017-18 winter here, fast start in december, normal transitory january, then february torch. But if the SSW happens and the aftereffects last long with the lag Chuck keeps mentioning, we may extend the good start to cover 2/3 of the winter season. Won’t take much to get us to climo, with march as a cherry top if we can get anything out of that month (which we haven’t in a long time - we’re due) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 On 11/14/2025 at 3:09 PM, mappy said: I’ll believe it when it happens. Me too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 As @WxUSAF said, we seem to be consistently trending cooler as we close on events. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: As @WxUSAF said, we seem to be consistently trending cooler as we close on events. Is there any meteorological reason for this as opposed to the typical warming trend? Is the pattern different or upper levels atypical to the past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 I like this h5 look for early Dec. Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain plus a +PNA/-EPO. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 I like this h5 look for early Dec. Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain plus a +PNA/-EPO. About as good as we can hope for early on in the season. If we can manage to squeeze out a 2-4/3-6 type event before dec 20th I’d be thrilled. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: About as good as we can hope for early on in the season. If we can manage to squeeze out a 2-4/3-6 type event before dec 20th I’d be thrilled. A Scandi block retrograding into the NAO space is what happened in early winter 2009. We know how that turned out. Just sayin. Ofc that was a Nino so results may vary lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: A Scandi block retrograding into the NAO space is what happened in early winter 2009. We know how that turned out. Just sayin. Ofc that was a Nino so results may vary lol. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 very interesting forecast because of the snowfall gradient. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 37 minutes ago, bncho said: very interesting forecast because of the snowfall gradient. Diabolical 1-95 map and I love that for them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Not going to ignore the big +NAO that came out of nowhere the last few days. A week ago models had persistent -NAO through Nov and Dec, and I think I actually made a few comments about how rare that has been. Almost all -NAO's have lasted only 10 days then gone away or switched positive. Well there it is again. Since 10-11, we haven't had a -NAO Winter for this reason, and 19/19 Winter months with NAO value >1.12 in that time have all been positive! That's the decadal phase we're in. It was looking hopeful that this year would start off different, but that's changed in the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now