May 2025

[forkyfork]

this looks too dry for any storms here

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Continuing to pour here. Similar to Wednesday 

Very heavy for a short time here. Now back down to light rain. 0.45" here, and will add a little more. Another nice soaking. 

[jm1220]

South Jersey Alley lighting up. 

[qg_omega]

47 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think tomorrow could be a legit severe day for our area. The parent low is enormously deep for this time of year. 

No forcing

[WX-PA]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Some of the models show the severe drought shifting eastward into the Plains from the 2030s into the 2050s. But it would require the ridge east of New England shifting for us to get westerly winds from the Plains.

I suppose a compromise could be possible with both ridges linking up and alternating westerly and southerly flow. But this hasn’t been the case in the last decade with more of a trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and inshore flow.

Notice how these days the common summer pattern has been a ridge east of New England and over the West. But from 2010 to 2013 when we had all the 100° heat and westerly flow there was a ridge in the Plains. 
 

 

 

What models go into 2050 lol?..I'll be 92 if I'm lucky, but probably planted. At least I'll always have a good view of the sky.

[steve392]

How does something like this just fall apart?  It was so healthy looking.  It's just barely been a drizzle the entire time.  

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

What models go into 2050 lol?..I'll be 92 if I'm lucky, but probably planted. At least I'll always have a good view of the sky.

Climate models. They don't predict the weather, so they don't operate the same way as regular weather models. 

[MANDA]

35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Very heavy for a short time here. Now back down to light rain. 0.45" here, and will add a little more. Another nice soaking. 

Same here.  Did not check gauge but looks like about .40" here.  Few rumbles of thunder and hardly a puff of wind.  Main show was moderate to some heavy rain.  Skies brightening now.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Storms having Trouble penetrating LI

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

At least. Looks to go for another hour or so

Over now and yeah ended up with a little more than I was expecting -- 0.58" here. We certainly have had plenty of rain lately. I won't have to water the garden for awhile. 

[steve392]

Atlantic City bout to be clobered! 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I remember as a little kid in the 90s my school would have a field day at Valley Stream State Park and the trees (oaks I think) would be covered in those hairy caterpillars. I haven't seen them in a very long time.

Did they just disappear for awhile?

we have a state park around here?

There was a monstrous gypsy moth invasion in the Poconos in the 90s.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

we have a state park around here?

There was a monstrous gypsy moth invasion in the Poconos in the 90s.

Really? You don’t know about Valley Stream and Hempstead Lake state parks? Hempstead Lake is a really great park with amazing trails and some gorgeous climax forests (not old growth but last logged in the 1800s when it became a reservoir for the Brooklyn water works) highly recommend that park to anyone on the island 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

What models go into 2050 lol?..I'll be 92 if I'm lucky, but probably planted. At least I'll always have a good view of the sky.

They have run the climate models pretty far out in time. The summer forecast through later in the century is for drier to our west and wet for our area. Plus an extensive ridge across North America allowing the Western Ridge to link up with the WAR . We have seen this pattern at times over the last decade like in June 2021 and other months. Though the trough which has been over the Ohio Valley between the WAR and Western Ridge has been stronger than what is indicated in the long range forecast. So it could eventually weaken in coming decades with the expansion of drought into the Plains. We see how it goes.

 

 

[jm1220]

42 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Storms having Trouble penetrating LI

Whaaaa? Never! 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Really? You don’t know about Valley Stream and Hempstead Lake state parks? Hempstead Lake is a really great park with amazing trails and some gorgeous climax forests (not old growth but last logged in the 1800s when it became a reservoir for the Brooklyn water works) highly recommend that park to anyone on the island 

 

I know about Hempstead Lake State Park but Valley Stream has always just been a run down semi urban area with Green Acres Mall to me.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Whaaaa? Never! 

don't need them or want them anyway, a little light rain and thunder before the sun comes out is just fine :-)

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They have run the climate models pretty far out in time. The summer forecast through later in the century is for drier to our west and wet for our area. Plus an extensive ridge across North America allowing the Western Ridge to link up with the WAR . We have seen this pattern at times over the last decade like in June 2021 and other months. Though the trough which has been over the Ohio Valley between the WAR and Western Ridge has been stronger than what is indicated in the long range forecast. So it could eventually weaken in coming decades with the expansion of drought into the Plains. We see how it goes.

 

 

they're going to be wrong like they always are, wet and dry go in cycles, we'll have some record drought again just like we had in the 60s.

Remember they were predicting an average of 3 100 degree days every year by the year 2045

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They have run the climate models pretty far out in time. The summer forecast through later in the century is for drier to our west and wet for our area. Plus an extensive ridge across North America allowing the Western Ridge to link up with the WAR . We have seen this pattern at times over the last decade like in June 2021 and other months. Though the trough which has been over the Ohio Valley between the WAR and Western Ridge has been stronger than what is indicated in the long range forecast. So it could eventually weaken in coming decades with the expansion of drought into the Plains. We see how it goes.

 

 

fwiw if we start dumping sulfates into the atmosphere like we probably will by 2030, it's going to make the climate cooler (or stabilize it) and drier.

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Really? You don’t know about Valley Stream and Hempstead Lake state parks? Hempstead Lake is a really great park with amazing trails and some gorgeous climax forests (not old growth but last logged in the 1800s when it became a reservoir for the Brooklyn water works) highly recommend that park to anyone on the island 

 

I love Hempstead Lake State Park and the wonderful swans that nest there!

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

don't need them or want them anyway, a little light rain and thunder before the sun comes out is just fine :-)

the sun is starting to come back out now....

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I love Hempstead Lake State Park and the wonderful swans that nest there!

 

Yeah they are invasive Mute swans. What’s cool is the giant great blue heron that lives in the north lake!

Glad the rain disappeared before the island, we need to dry out a bit.

[steve392]

So we done for the day and weekend? My grass has grown another 1.5" since Mondays mowing and I gotta figure out if I can get a mow in tomorrow. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, steve392 said:

So we done for the day and weekend? My grass has grown another 1.5" since Mondays mowing and I gotta figure out if I can get a mow in tomorrow. 

models are dry for the rest of the day and even mostly dry for tomorrow

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah they are invasive Mute swans. What’s cool is the giant great blue heron that lives in the north lake!

Glad the rain disappeared before the island, we need to dry out a bit.

wow I haven't seen the giant great blue heron yet!!

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah they are invasive Mute swans. What’s cool is the giant great blue heron that lives in the north lake!

Glad the rain disappeared before the island, we need to dry out a bit.

The mute swans are gorgeous though I've seen them in Queens too at Alley Pond Park

[TheClimateChanger]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They have run the climate models pretty far out in time. The summer forecast through later in the century is for drier to our west and wet for our area. Plus an extensive ridge across North America allowing the Western Ridge to link up with the WAR . We have seen this pattern at times over the last decade like in June 2021 and other months. Though the trough which has been over the Ohio Valley between the WAR and Western Ridge has been stronger than what is indicated in the long range forecast. So it could eventually weaken in coming decades with the expansion of drought into the Plains. We see how it goes.

 

 

I don't know what trough was over the Ohio Valley last summer. The region saw the worst drought since the Drought Monitor began in 2000 for many areas, with the most 90+ days in decades [and hottest temps in decades in some spots].

[TheClimateChanger]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

fwiw if we start dumping sulfates into the atmosphere like we probably will by 2030, it's going to make the climate cooler (or stabilize it) and drier.

I thought you wanted it hotter. Also, not sure about drier summers, volcanos typically cause colder, wetter summers, no? 1992 was the 3rd wettest summer on record following the Pinatubo eruption.

[JerseyWx]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models are dry for the rest of the day and even mostly dry for tomorrow

Good, we need a break from this now.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm. Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible.

The extended guidance has grown noticeably cooler for the second half of May than it had been. Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance are now in good agreement that the second half of the month will be cooler than normal overall.

Consistent with the guidance, it could turn unseasonably cooler next week following the coming weekend. Once it turns cooler, an extended period of below normal temperatures is possible.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +7.60 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.278 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal).