May 2025

[MGorse]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I'm surprised one hasn't been issued for Middlesex. I'm up to 1.85" and it's still pouring. We're getting training with these downpours. 

Not sure how many are aware, but NWS Mount Holly discontinued the issuance of Flood Advisories last year. More focus on the warnings.

[Sundog]

Looks like the rain overperformed for a lot of us. 

[Stormlover74]

Looks like some showers tomorrow but probably not a washout

[stu]

How the heck is it May 14th and we still haven't put in the window AC units? I don't ever remember it staying this cool this late in the year. Am I crazy?

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, stu said:

How the heck is it May 14th and we still haven't put in the window AC units? I don't ever remember it staying this cool this late in the year. Am I crazy?

It's been well above average but not alot of heat.  I did turn my ac on last weekend when it was upper 80s

[donsutherland1]

Showers will wind down later tonight. Although parts of the region picked up 1.00" or more of rain over the past two days, much higher amounts of rainfall were recorded farther south. For example, parts of western Virginia and western North Carolina saw more than 3.50" of rain. Sedalia (4 NW), VA picked up 5.36" of rain.

It will turn somewhat warmer tomorrow and the week could end with temperatures in the upper 70s to perhaps 80°. Showers are possible during the weekend.

Elsewhere, parts of Texas are experiencing extreme heat. Cotulla, TX reached 112°, which broke the May monthly record of 110° that was set just yesterday. Meanwhile, International Falls reached 91°, its fourth consecutive 90° day. The prior earliest four-day heatwave occurred on June 4-7, 1988

The extended guidance has grown noticeably cooler for the second half of May than it had been. Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance are now in good agreement that the second half of the month could average near or even below normal overall.

Consistent with the guidance, it could turn unseasonably cool early next week following the coming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -3.35 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.160 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.0° (1.8° above normal).

 

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, stu said:

How the heck is it May 14th and we still haven't put in the window AC units? I don't ever remember it staying this cool this late in the year. Am I crazy?

I was thinking about this earlier.  We've put them in later, but I agree, usually they'd be in by now.  Considering how next week looks, we might make it to June without them.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Lots of apples and oranges to unpack in that statement, but the discussion seems to be more around the weather generated on the interface between the east side of continents and adjacent oceans.  It's about 2500 miles from Labrador to Miami.  Its about 2700 miles from Valdivostok to Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon).  

I don't think the extremes that you are imagining are real (temperature extremes and snowstorms), except for possibly the number of TC's in the northern Pacific (any chance you were adding in TCs from the southern pacific?).  The mountains of northern Japan in winter are a special case in a similar sense to the way that the Tug Hill is.  There is nothing tiny about the coastline adjacent to either continent.

I was fascinated by the extremes on all the continents so I went about looking for different measurements with temperature and snowfall and for Asia I found a big extreme in temps between Omyakon and Verhoyansk (the dual cold poles in Siberia) vs Ahwaz in Iran.... going from -96 to +130.  The really interesting thing is those two towns in Siberia can go from nearly 100 degrees in the summer to nearly -100 degrees in the winter, I don't think you can get that kind of extreme range anywhere on the planet besides there and maybe the major city closest to them-- Yakutsk.  Besides northern Japan, the other region in that area with such extreme snowfall is the Kamchatka Peninsula in eastern Siberia (which is geographically close to northern Japan).... I saw a nature documentary of this very beautiful region and the diversity in flora and fauna there is absolutely amazing!

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like some showers tomorrow but probably not a washout

if it's in the morning and then it stays cloudy all day then it's definitely a wash out.  No one wants wet ground with cloudy gloomy skies.

 

[bluewave]

Hopefully, the cutoff for the extended Memorial Day weekend is more frontloaded to Friday into Saturday and moves to our NE on Monday.

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, the cutoff for the extended Memorial Day weekend is more frontloaded to Friday into Saturday and moves to our NE on Monday.

 

I gotta be freakin dreaming here 

[SACRUS]

 

62 / 61 cloudy some scattered light showers. Mainly light rain the next 36 hours and staying mostly cloudy, areas of fog, could be some breaks later or Friday afternoon.   

Saturday, pending on sun could push mid 80s or better in the warm spots ahead of the front which will bring the next round of showers/storms layer saturday, otherwise saturday looks to be the warmest day of the remainder of the month.

  Dry out Sunday - Wed with a nice stretch.  heavy rains next week into the nations center as trough cuts off - GFS has ULL moving through Fri-Sat and clearing Sun/Mon(Memorial day), while the Euro has a linger cut off and trough through Mon and into the week of the 26th.  Overall near normal close of the second half and outside of Saturday the 17th mainly below any heat / 80s criteria.  Timing of the Upper level next week into the Memorial Day holiday weekend to be worked out.

 

Beyond there building heat into the Rockies and west ejecting east to open next month - see if we can time a quick arrival here between the next trough  - way out there.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:
 

 

EWR: 92 (2018)
NYC: 90 (1900)
LGA: 92 (2018)
JFK: 82 (2007)

 

Lows:

EWR: 40 (1939)
NYC: 42 (1947)
LGA: 43 (1947)
JFK: 44 (1966)

Historical:

 

1834 - The Northern Atlantic Coast States were in the midst of their greatest May snowstorm of record. The hills around Newbury, VT, were covered with two to three feet of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1834: A wintry period from the Great Lakes to parts of New England. 6 inch snow in Erie, PA (14th); 12 inches in Rutland, VT, by p.m. today; Newbury, VT received 2 feet (sleighs on roads on 16th), while Haverhill, NH, vicinity had 2 feet in valleys and 3 feet on hills.

 

1951: On this date through the 24th, Hurricane Able does loop-the-loop north of the Bahamas and reaches Category 3 strength off Cape Hatteras, NC.

1968 - A tornado touched down southwest of Anchorage, AK. It was the second of just three tornadoes reported in Alaska since 1950. (The Weather Channel)

1972 - The worst ice jam flooding of memory for long-time residents took place along the Kuskokwim River and Yukon River in Alaska. It was the first time since 1890 that the two rivers "flowed as one". The towns of Oscarville and Napaskiak were completely inundated. (15th-31st) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Unseasonably warm weather returned to the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Janestown, ND, with a reading of 96 degrees. Thunderstorms in Utah produced five inches of rain south of Bicknell. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 80 mph in Oklahoma County, and baseball size hail at Pawnee. Hail piled up to a depth of 18 inches south of Pawnee. Hail damage in Oklahoma was estimated at close to 25 million dollars. Thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest produced golf ball size hail around Cleveland, OH, and wind gusts to 83 mph at Angola, IN. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along and north of a stationary front produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, and there were 145 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Softball size hail caused 2.1 million dollars damage at Sherman, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Central Plains Region and Oklahoma to Indiana and western Kentucky. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including seven in Oklahoma, and there were 165 reports of large hail or damaging winds. A tornado killed one person, injured a dozen others, and caused four million dollars damage at Stillwater, OK. Another tornado injured eight persons at Foyil, OK. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma also produced wind gusts to 92 mph at Oologah Lake, and softball size hail at Canton and north of Oakwood. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I gotta be freakin dreaming here 

Go back to around 2013 and you will see that most years have at least some measurable rainfall on at least one of the Friday to Monday extended Memorial Day weekend days. 

[Sundog]

The differences between KNYC and Newark are wild in some recent years on those Memorial Day charts.

In 2021 for example, Newark was 84 with a low of 66 and Central Park had a high of 70 with a low of 49?

That's not possible. 

And in 2023 Newark was 88/70 and Central Park was 79/59? Something is off.

[wdrag]

Good Thursday morning everyone,  May 15.

All graphics can be clicked for clarity. 

Added the drought monitor (ONLY LONG TERM NOW IN OUR AREA) and one week classification change (please refer to the legend), plus the flooding reports in central NJ yesterday and the unexpectedly large 48 hour rainfall ending this morning via CoCoRaHs. This 48 hour rainfall will be newly added to next weeks drought monitor assessment and is in my opinion good news for our coming summer (JJA).

Sussex County reports (nw NJ) dropped off rapidly to the west fringe of NJ (my part of southern Wantage NJ two day 0.92) 

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The differences between KNYC and Newark are wild in some recent years on those Memorial Day charts.

In 2021 for example, Newark was 84 with a low of 66 and Central Park had a high of 70 with a low of 49?

That's not possible. 

And in 2023 Newark was 88/70 and Central Park was 79/59? Something is off.

Yes there is an issue - i will delete.  The list generated with errors.  Thanks for the catch 

[wdrag]

A final note from me today: Saturday's coming convection may have some hailers as I've seen some guidance suggest iso severe further N than currently outlooked, up into e NYS.  Going to be some problems for air travel into NYC next several days (beyond the Newark multi problems).

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Go back to around 2013 and you will see that most years have at least some measurable rainfall on at least one of the Friday to Monday extended Memorial Day weekend days. 

I know Memorial day is the unofficial start to summer but it's still spring and often damp..ocean temps are still 60 or less many years  so any east flow is the kiss of death

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Go back to around 2013 and you will see that most years have at least some measurable rainfall on at least one of the Friday to Monday extended Memorial Day weekend days. 

it's a four day period so one would expect at least some rainfall on one of the days

[SACRUS]

 

Heaviest rainfall shifts to the center of the nation the next 7 days  The majority of the forecasted rain for us is with the lingering showers Thu/FRi and Saturdays storms potential

 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Heaviest rainfall shifts to the center of the nation the next 7 days  The majority of the forecasted rain for us is with the lingering showers Thu/FRi and Saturdays storms potential

 

Next week looks really nice with sunny skies and temps in the low 60s.

The rainfall can stay in the middle of the country for a few months, lets keep it there.

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I gotta be freakin dreaming here 

Once the cutoff lows start hanging around the NE we all know what happens. 

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's a four day period so one would expect at least some rainfall on one of the days

Back in the drier climate era days we would often go more than 4 days with no rain. This is why the longest heatwaves occurred in those days. But late May has especially seen more blocking and cutoffs last 10 years or so. This makes it prime time for cutoff lows and frequent rainy intervals. It’s the primary reason we still haven’t seen widespread 100° heat this time of year yet. In a drier climate with less blocking the May 1996 record heat would have easily been surpassed. 
 

Monthly Data for May 1996 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	99
NY	MINEOLA 1 NE	COOP	99
NY	OCEANSIDE	COOP	98
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	98
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	98
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	97
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	97
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	97
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	97
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	97
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	97
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	97
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	96
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	96
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	96
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	96
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	96
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	96

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Back in the drier climate era days we would often go more than 4 days with no rain. This is why the longest heatwaves occurred in those days. But late May has especially seen more blocking and cutoffs last 10 years or so. This makes it prime time for cutoff lows and frequent rainy intervals. It’s the primary reason we still haven’t seen widespread 100° heat this time of year yet. In a drier climate with less blocking the May 1996 record heat would have easily been surpassed. 
 

Monthly Data for May 1996 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	99
NY	MINEOLA 1 NE	COOP	99
NY	OCEANSIDE	COOP	98
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	98
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	98
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	97
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	97
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	97
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	97
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	97
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	97
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	97
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	96
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	96
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	96
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	96
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	96
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	96

this goes towards my contention about why it's *climate change* and not *global warming*, there are different changes occurring in different parts of the world, the most pronounced change in our region during the so-called warm seasons has been more cloud cover and more rain.  More of a pronounced warming in the fall and winter.  September and even October have become extensions of late summer.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Back in the drier climate era days we would often go more than 4 days with no rain. This is why the longest heatwaves occurred in those days. But late May has especially seen more blocking and cutoffs last 10 years or so. This makes it prime time for cutoff lows and frequent rainy intervals. It’s the primary reason we still haven’t seen widespread 100° heat this time of year yet. In a drier climate with less blocking the May 1996 record heat would have easily been surpassed. 
 

Monthly Data for May 1996 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	99
NY	MINEOLA 1 NE	COOP	99
NY	OCEANSIDE	COOP	98
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	98
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	98
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	97
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	97
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	97
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	97
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	97
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	97
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	97
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	96
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	96
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	96
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	96
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	96
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	96

it's also good to talk about how disappointing a summer 1996 had, we had no 90 degree days after May, outside of one day that barely hit 90 on the last day of August in that year.

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

this goes towards my contention about why it's *climate change* and not *global warming*, there are different changes occurring in different parts of the world, the most pronounced change in our region during the so-called warm seasons has been more cloud cover and more rain.  More of a pronounced warming in the winter.

 

It’s going to be a challenge for places like Newark to ever see 20 consecutive 90° days again with how wet the climate has become with increased summer onshore flow.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2025-05-14
1	20	1988-07-29 through 1988-08-17
2	14	2010-07-16 through 2010-07-29
3	12	1995-07-24 through 1995-08-04
-	12	1972-07-14 through 1972-07-25
4	11	2012-06-28 through 2012-07-08
-	11	1973-08-26 through 1973-09-05
-	11	1953-08-24 through 1953-09-03
5	10	2022-08-02 through 2022-08-11
-	10	2006-07-27 through 2006-08-05
-	10	2002-08-10 through 2002-08-19

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1988-07-29	95	0.00
1988-07-30	99	0.00
1988-07-31	90	T
1988-08-01	91	0.00
1988-08-02	94	0.00
1988-08-03	93	0.00
1988-08-04	92	0.00
1988-08-05	90	T
1988-08-06	90	0.00
1988-08-07	93	T
1988-08-08	90	0.00
1988-08-09	92	0.00
1988-08-10	93	0.01
1988-08-11	97	0.00
1988-08-12	95	0.00
1988-08-13	98	0.00
1988-08-14	98	0.00
1988-08-15	99	0.00
1988-08-16	92	0.00
1988-08-17	90	0.05

[SACRUS]

 

Too bad we couldnt get 6-12 more hours of dry ahead of the front Saturday as some of the warmer spots could have approached 90, still it could be mid/upper 80s ahead of the front pending on clearing.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Another convective blob firing up off the Jersey shore and inbound to the island. Talk about a stuck pattern.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s going to be a challenge for places like Newark to ever see 20 consecutive 90° days again with how wet the climate has become with increased summer onshore flow.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2025-05-14
1	20	1988-07-29 through 1988-08-17
2	14	2010-07-16 through 2010-07-29
3	12	1995-07-24 through 1995-08-04
-	12	1972-07-14 through 1972-07-25
4	11	2012-06-28 through 2012-07-08
-	11	1973-08-26 through 1973-09-05
-	11	1953-08-24 through 1953-09-03
5	10	2022-08-02 through 2022-08-11
-	10	2006-07-27 through 2006-08-05
-	10	2002-08-10 through 2002-08-19

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1988-07-29	95	0.00
1988-07-30	99	0.00
1988-07-31	90	T
1988-08-01	91	0.00
1988-08-02	94	0.00
1988-08-03	93	0.00
1988-08-04	92	0.00
1988-08-05	90	T
1988-08-06	90	0.00
1988-08-07	93	T
1988-08-08	90	0.00
1988-08-09	92	0.00
1988-08-10	93	0.01
1988-08-11	97	0.00
1988-08-12	95	0.00
1988-08-13	98	0.00
1988-08-14	98	0.00
1988-08-15	99	0.00
1988-08-16	92	0.00
1988-08-17	90	0.05

Very similar to why south Florida doesn’t see the type of 100 degree heat you see in Texas. We are years from seeing a Florida climate here but the halmarks are starting.