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Showers and periods of rain are likely through at least the first half of tonight. A general storm total 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts by the time all of the rain winds down. Following the weekend, it will turn warmer and possibly drier. Some showers will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -13.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.412 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 66.0° (2.8° above normal). That would tie 2025 with 1986 as the 9th warmest May on record.

 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Was, empire wind is currently on hold indefinitely. I’m not getting into politics in here but you know…

Who cares about wind. 

NYC was getting 20% of its power from a clean source immune to global price shocks that provided baseload power 24/7. 

But no! We had to shut that down!

My bills are pushing DOUBLE what I paid 5 years ago. And I got much more efficient heat pumps installed mind you! 

Don't get me started. 

 

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2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Who cares about wind. 

NYC was getting 20% of its power from a clean source immune to global price shocks that provided baseload power 24/7. 

But no! We had to shut that down!

My bills are pushing DOUBLE what I paid 5 years ago. And I got much more efficient heat pumps installed mind you! 

Don't get me started. 

 

Google AI just told me it would take 800 windmills to replace one nuclear reactor. Doesn’t fit the narrative though.

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59 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Google AI just told me it would take 800 windmills to replace one nuclear reactor. Doesn’t fit the narrative though.

Lots of greenhouse gases emitted making and installing those 800 windmills 

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Sitting at 1.6" for the day.  On both Sunday and yesterday we had some of the heaviest downpours in quite some time, at least since any convection last summer.

From Sunday through today, I'm at almost 5 inches, I think we're good for a bit.

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I got 0.26" here. This after getting only 0.75" from that Thursday through Sunday wet period. My area keeps missing out on the big rain totals, but at least it has been enough to water the vegetable garden over the last week. My tomatoes are growing very quickly. 

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51 / 42 clear and breezy.  Shaping up to be a great weekend.  Low - mid 70s today and approaching 80 maybe some low 80s in the warm spots tomorrow Mothers Day in C/S NJ.  Monday looks just as warm near to low 80s.  Next cutoff brings unsettled mainly cloudy weather Tue - Thu 0.50 - 0.75 at this time.  Front nearby later in the week Fri could trigger storms but warmer and shaping up for another nice weekend with the storms timing for early/mid weeks.  Beyond there warmer/potentially hotter close to the month.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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While the records only go back to 1998, parts Orange County NY are already the 7th wettest May on record. 
 

Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1998 6.80 0
2 2002 6.54 0
3 2011 5.39 0
4 2003 4.98 0
5 2024 4.94 0
6 2017 4.83 0
7 2025 4.77 23
8 2009 4.53 0
9 2021 4.50 0
10 2019 4.44 3
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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1979)
NYC: 94 (1979)
LGA: 91 (1979)
JFK: 90 (1979)


Lows:

EWR: 34 (1947)
NYC: 36 (1966)
LGA: 38 (1966)
JFK: 34 (1966)

Historical:

 

1905 - A deadly tornado hit the town of Snyder, OK, killing 87 persons. The tornado leveled 100 homes in Snyder, and destroyed many others. The large and violent tornado killed a total of 97 persons along its 40 miles path across southwestern Oklahoma. Its roar could reportedly be heard up to twelve miles away. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1906 LATEST SNOW ON RECORD at the Washington Weather Bureau Office It snowed for 33 minutes and the temperature reached 79 °F the next day.

 

1945: A rare late season coastal storm dumped 7 inches of snow on Portland, ME and 0.3 inches of snow fell at Fort Wayne, IN; their latest measurable snow.


1966 - Morning lows of 21 degrees at Bloomington-Normal and Aurora, IL, established a state record for the month of May. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Summer-like "Father's Day" type weather prevailed in the north central and western U.S. for "Mother's Day", as seventeen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Jamestown ND soared to a record high of 96 degrees. Thunderstorms along the Central Gulf Coast deluged Lillian AL with 14.5 inches of rain, and nearby Perdido Key FL with 12.8 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced hail and high winds over the Atlantic Coast Region and the Gulf Coast States marking the end of a five day episode of severe weather associated with a cyclone tracking out of the Great Basin into southeastern Canada. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front crossing the Plateau Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Butte MT, and gusts to 77 mph at Choteau MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A spring storm produced heavy snow in Upper Michigan and eastern Wiscosin. Totals ranged up to 12 inches at Marquette MI, with eight inches reported at Muskego WI and Hartford WI. The heavy wet snow, and winds gusting to 35 mph, damaged or destroyed thousands of trees, and downed numerous power lines. Total damage from the storm was more than four million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

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13 hours ago, Sundog said:

Who cares about wind. 

NYC was getting 20% of its power from a clean source immune to global price shocks that provided baseload power 24/7. 

But no! We had to shut that down!

My bills are pushing DOUBLE what I paid 5 years ago. And I got much more efficient heat pumps installed mind you! 

Don't get me started. 

 

If you're a customer of CON Edison, then you should know that they are predatory and have been prosecuted for spiking their prices.

I'm a big believer in publicly controlled utility companies and price controls being in effect.

 

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14 hours ago, Sundog said:

Who cares about wind. 

NYC was getting 20% of its power from a clean source immune to global price shocks that provided baseload power 24/7. 

But no! We had to shut that down!

My bills are pushing DOUBLE what I paid 5 years ago. And I got much more efficient heat pumps installed mind you! 

Don't get me started. 

 

Started. The wind farm out in LI was contracted to charge 300% over spot energy rates…which are terrible to begin with.  Who's getting that money?  A foreign company thats who.  Who’s paying it for it?  Subsidized by NY and federal tax payers who don’t even use that power.  Its a disgusting deal. The other power source is in another country - Canada - who hate us - dumb dumb dumb.  So we have the second highest electricity rates in the US and there is no hope of that changing that unless we can fleece federal taxpayers into subsidies.  NO WAY will NY ever build more power plants. Impossible.  Except subsidized wind farms.  

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14 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Started. The wind farm out in LI was contracted to charge 300% over spot energy rates…which are terrible to begin with.  Who's getting that money?  A foreign company thats who.  Who’s paying it for it?  Subsidized by NY and federal tax payers who don’t even use that power.  Its a disgusting deal. The other power source is in another country - Canada - who hate us - dumb dumb dumb.  So we have the second highest electricity rates in the US and there is no hope of that changing that unless we can fleece federal taxpayers into subsidies.  NO WAY will NY ever build more power plants. Impossible.  Except subsidized wind farms.  

NY is big on hydroelectric power, that's my favorite energy source (I also love solar, you can make money off a solar farm.)

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Looks like a delayed first 90° of the season for the warm spots like Newark. Models still have the upper low sitting over the Northeast on Memorial Day weekend. If this forecast does indeed verify, then it could mean that a summer like 2021 and 2022 for over 40 days reaching 90° near Newark may be less likely. This was the case in 2020 with the delayed first 90° into early June signaling fewer 90° days overall. These days Newark needs 40 or more days reaching 90° to be considered to be a high number. 
 

IMG_3548.thumb.png.cbc74e8d8368b683b7646178c169e7b9.png

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Minimum 04-13 (2023) 08-27 (2020) 81
Mean 05-16 09-11 118
Maximum 06-06 (2020) 10-02 (2019) 147
2024 05-02 (2024) 90 08-28 (2024) 95 117
2023 04-13 (2023) 92 09-08 (2023) 92 147
2022 05-21 (2022) 95 09-04 (2022) 93 105
2021 05-19 (2021) 91 09-15 (2021) 91 118
2020 06-06 (2020) 91 08-27 (2020) 93 81
2019 05-26 (2019) 90 10-02 (2019) 96 128
2018 05-02 (2018) 90 09-06 (2018) 98 126
2017 05-17 (2017) 92 09-25 (2017) 90 130
2016 05-25 (2016) 91 09-23 (2016) 90 120
2015 05-25 (2015) 90 09-09 (2015) 91 106


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
2024 33 0
2023 29 0
2022 49 0
2021 41 0
2020 31 0
2019 27 0
2018 36 0
2017 22 0
2016 40 0
2015 35 0
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