Stormlover74 Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Will we see our first heatwave? Severe weather? Or just a continuation of average to below average precip, above average temps and windy conditions? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 The first heatwave will be in June. A stray 90 degree day after May 20th, possibly near Memorial Day weekend. Nice low humidity pattern will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 07:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:44 PM Around 5/5-6 timeframe the models build in an upper low near and NE of us, which we all know means nasty onshore/backdoor conditions. Hope it's wrong. Probably won't bring much rain either which we're starting to need and have to build up in the groundwater before summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Wednesday at 01:25 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:25 PM Gfs vs euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted Wednesday at 01:31 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:31 PM Yikes! Hoping the GFS is closer to correct. 7" of rain would be terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 01:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:34 PM On 4/27/2025 at 7:14 PM, Stormlover74 said: Will we see our first heatwave? Severe weather? Or just a continuation of average to below average precip, above average temps and windy conditions? Below average sounds lovely 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Wednesday at 01:47 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:47 PM 15 minutes ago, FPizz said: Yikes! Hoping the GFS is closer to correct. 7" of rain would be terrible. Euro's probably overdone but it has been pretty consistent with 3"+ from Saturday through Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Wednesday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:32 PM ukmet and ggem moved toward the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Wednesday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:57 PM Monitoring for 5-7 Day drought buster Fri May 2-Fri May May 9... no thread from myself as yet but if it looks more likely that there will be 20% areal coverage 5+ in NYC subforum (Poconos-Catskills , to the Ct River and north of I-195, would then thread. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Wednesday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:20 PM 4 hours ago, wdrag said: Monitoring for 5-7 Day drought buster Fri May 2-Fri May May 9... no thread from myself as yet but if it looks more likely that there will be 20% areal coverage 5+ in NYC subforum (Poconos-Catskills , to the Ct River and north of I-195, would then thread. Latest from WPC has shifted max totals northward (vs. 12Z issuance) from VA Piedmont northward into PA, southern tier of NY and into NJ. This is through 00Z, Thurs. 5/8. Will all depend on placement of upper low and speed at which it exits. Needless to say I would be thrilled with half these totals. Possible southeast fetch lifted into the higher terrain of PA, NJ, NYS could deliver heavy totals but still subject to how upper low evolves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Wednesday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:48 PM 5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro's probably overdone but it has been pretty consistent with 3"+ from Saturday through Tuesday Now the Euro extends the rain through Wednesday. What a difference from a few days ago when it appeared it was gonna rain on Friday and clear out for the weekend. I'm glad to see these changes though ... we need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted Wednesday at 08:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:28 PM 39 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Now the Euro extends the rain through Wednesday. What a difference from a few days ago when it appeared it was gonna rain on Friday and clear out for the weekend. I'm glad to see these changes though ... we need the rain. We do not need the 7" that the euro has. 3" in that time frame is plenty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Wednesday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:35 PM eps and geps trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Wednesday at 11:06 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 11:06 PM Gfs weekly rainfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Thursday at 05:16 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:16 AM bring on the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted Thursday at 10:31 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:31 AM Holy Shibt! That's a lot of rain potential. We could use it, or even half of it. The kids have field day tomorrow, hopefully the weather holds long enough to get that in. Sounds like it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Thursday at 11:30 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:30 AM No thread of 20% coverage 5" areal til this evening... if then. WPC has 4" bullseye over NNJ through 7 days. Helpful rains but spread out over days and dependent on back end bigger rains next Mon-Wed. Streams are low flow but urban problems could result. Major league Baseball games from Atlanta to Boston DC, Phil;ly, NYY likely to see some delays or cancels this weekend-early next week... and outdoor activity definitely impacted. For now through Monday morning... biggest rains ensemble modeled I95 northwestward (inland where widespread 1.5-2" anticipated). Thereafter the focus may shift... and that will be the driver to get us to 5+. That latter still has a fair amount of uncertainty. There has to be a map of rainfall deficits. I took a look back the past 9 months via HPRCC and it looks to me like our area has deficits of 4-9". There probably is better data out there that someone can share. I did look at DEP reservoir levels as of yesterday... unless I'm misinterpretating... we're closer to normal than I thought... did I misread less than 5% below normal? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted Thursday at 11:38 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:38 AM 52 degree's leaving home and a gorgeous 44 at work. That crisp air feels amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 11:41 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:41 AM 54 / 37 off a chilly low of 43. Upper 60s to near 70 today in what will likely be the nicest day (sun - wise) till next Thu or Friday. A very warm Fri but it looks quite cloudy, any longer breakd gets the war m spots to mid 80s. Cut off low to our west this weekend keeps clouds and a warmer humid/southerly flow. Rain Sat/Sun from more scattered areas of showers, rain and some tstorms. Cutoff heads east Mon - Wed and latest forecasts bring 2- 4 inches of rain or more in the higher spots total from 5/3 - 5/8. Beyond there more near normal overall between 5/9 - 5/14. No strong warmth / ridging looking till mid month and post mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 11:46 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:46 AM Records: Highs: EWR: 88 (2010) NYC: 87 (2001) LGA: 85 (2001) JFK: 81 (2001) Lows: EWR: 36 (1978) NYC: 35 (1880) LGA: 38 (1978) JFK: 38 (2008) Historical: 1854 - The Connecticut River reached a level of nearly twenty-nine feet at Hartford (the highest level of record up until that time). The record height was reached in the midst of a great New England flood which followed sixty-six hours of steady rain. (David Ludlum) 1857: The Washington Evening Star publishes the first US national weather summary using observations from volunteers to the Smithsonian Institution's cooperative network. 1933: An estimated F4 tornado struck Minden, Louisiana, killing 28 people and injuring 400 others. 500 homes were damaged or destroyed with $1.3 million in damage. 1935 - Snow, ice and sleet brought winter back to parts of southeast Minnesota. Minneapolis received three inches of snow to tie their May record which was established in 1892. (1st-2nd) (The Weather Channel) 1954 - The temperature at Polebridge MT dipped to 5 degrees below zero to esablish a state record for the month of May. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and heavy rain in Texas. Baseball size hail pounded Dublin, and 3.75 inches of rain soaked Brady. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front crossing the Rocky Mountain Region gusted to 90 mph at Lamar CO. High winds created blinding dust storms in eastern Colorado, closing roads around Limon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the southeastern U.S. Rainfall totals of 1.84 inches at Charlotte NC and 2.86 inches at Atlanta GA were records for the date. Strong thunderstorm winds uprooted trees in Twiggs County GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northern Alabama to North Carolina. There were sixty-three reports of large hail or damaging winds, with hail four inches in diameter reported near Cartersville GA. Ten cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 90s. Jacksonville FL reported a record high of 96 degrees. Late night thunderstorms over central Texas produced up to ten inches of rain in southern Kimble County and northern Edwards County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1999: Record, low temperatures for the date, were broken in the Deep South. Mobile, Alabama dropped to 46 degrees. Miami fell to 58; Miami Beach bottomed out at 61, and Vero Beach dropped to 47 degrees, all new records. Other stations in Florida also set record cold maximums for the date, including 61 at Jacksonville and Daytona Beach with 66 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted Thursday at 12:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:30 PM Dan Zarrow thinks there is still a shot we avoid the heavy rains as the system shifts further offshore. Hope he is right. No one wants gloom and days and days of rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted Thursday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:58 PM 1 hour ago, winterwarlock said: Dan Zarrow thinks there is still a shot we avoid the heavy rains as the system shifts further offshore. Hope he is right. No one wants gloom and days and days of rain Working at the 5 boro bike tour I hope that's true for Sunday. Or at least limited to an occasional light shower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Thursday at 01:59 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 01:59 PM Just now, dWave said: Working at the 5 boro bike tour I hope that's true for Sunday. Or at least limited to an occasional light shower. Either way it's not going to be 5 days straight of rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Thursday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:21 PM 22 minutes ago, dWave said: Working at the 5 boro bike tour I hope that's true for Sunday. Or at least limited to an occasional light shower. Ugh-that's miserable in the rain-we did it a few years back a few times-one year had off and on shower and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Thursday at 02:21 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 02:21 PM Part of the problem with these forecasts is it will say 70% chance of showers Saturday and Sunday but end up raining for a total of 4 or 6 hours. I see lots of cancellations of weekend events already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Thursday at 02:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:22 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: Part of the problem with these forecasts is it will say 70% chance of showers Saturday and Sunday but end up raining for a total of 4 or 6 hours. I see lots of cancellations of weekend events already yeah-most models don't have much at all for Saturday now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Thursday at 02:24 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 02:24 PM It does specify both afternoons as when showers are likely but I think right now it's too difficult to pinpoint 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Thursday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:03 PM Today's theme seems to be to initially keeping alot of the rain to the N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted Thursday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:32 PM 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Ugh-that's miserable in the rain-we did it a few years back a few times-one year had off and on shower and cold. I did it last year, the forecast was pretty bleak, but it didn't turn out so bad for people in the earlier waves. They finished basically rain free. Just cloudy and cool. Maybe some brief drizzle. When the rain did come it poured though. Still got soaked on the way home. For those who started later it must of sucked toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Thursday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:21 PM No rush on any drought denting thread... still looking a 20% coverage 5" but ensembles and WPC below that and definitely I95 inland, at least through Monday. End of whatever happens is probably with the leftover upper low passage Wednesday evening. Most of the rain as per WPC 17z D1-D6. Overall, due to the previous 9 months (or so) drier than normal pattern, most of the area should handle the coming (welcomed) rains. Will rereview at 830A Friday for a possible thread and then probably out of the loop through at least early Sunday afternoon. If a thread posts, it will include OBS. Just waiting it out. For now, not quite there in my mind for a thread. Have a good rest of the day - evening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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