May 2025 Obs/Discussion

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s unusable. Don’t do it.

It's been horrific, I barely even look out much past 5 days right now. Friend of mine told me he came across something where the score of the GFS has been abysmal...and model scores overall may be down. Have to wonder how much the reduced balloon launches are factoring in? 

[Damage In Tolland]

Torch!

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1927349946891501897?s=12

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's been horrific, I barely even look out much past 5 days right now. Friend of mine told me he came across something where the score of the GFS has been abysmal...and model scores overall may be down. Have to wonder how much the reduced balloon launches are factoring in? 

If that’s the case then we’d see the same for other models I would guess. Not sure what’s going on.

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I hope this week turns out better than is being advertised. Not sure I can stand the wall to wall clouds again this week.

Yesterdya may have been the best day until late next week.

Yesterday, today, and tomorrow look good. Friday also may be ok.

[SouthCoastMA]

How is yesterday better than today? It's in the mid 70s today and we might have touched 63 yesterday

[ineedsnow]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch!

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1927349946891501897?s=12

pretty sure NYC will be a bit warmer then Mount Tolland unless your moving.. you could see low 80s though if the Euro is correct 

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

pretty sure NYC will be a bit warmer then Mount Tolland unless your moving.. you could see low 80s though if the Euro is correct 

Well the point was.  A week + of 90 in NYC is a week + of 80’s and dews for you 

[ForestHillWx]

6 hours ago, kdxken said:

The beech trees are toast. That's how mine started. Gone now.

Nematode; got mine in NJ. I’ve been trying to save it with my tree-scientist buddy, via fertilizer/meds, but it’s too far gone.  

I suspect they will all go sadly. 

[dendrite]

Finally got mine too. Took this yesterday. 

[powderfreak]

76/38

What a day.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

If that’s the case then we’d see the same for other models I would guess. Not sure what’s going on.

That is a thought I had too. 

But something is going on, I mean we can even extend what seems to be poor skill back 3-4 years now, especially in winter. There have been some extremely large jumps within guidance inside of 72 hours and it seems just about every major model has had its share of failures. 

Part of me wonders if its just related to how complex the weather patterns have been or if its more human related. There is just so much garbage thrown around on social media for storm potentials several days out (sometimes even 10+) and there is so much focus on just one or two graphics, and forecasts start getting chucked out 4 days in advance. 

There is too much with taking a model at face value and very little critical thinking or skill applied. Its just take the model which shows what the user wants and then try to spin it into a forecast. Then when the forecast doesn't pan out, the models get blamed. 

At the TriState Weather Conference in October, a person asked a question relating why it seems like models were doing worse. I believe it was Dr. Tuell who responded, but he essentially said one problem is there is lack of responsibility taken and models are essentially used as a crutch as to why a forecast is wrong. I wish his answer was recorded, I thought it was a great statement. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch!

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1927349946891501897?s=12

Page Hits!!

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well the point was.  A week + of 90 in NYC is a week + of 80’s and dews for you 

lets see if the Euro still has it at 12z   the GFS is a disaster for the heat and dews

[ineedsnow]

CMC also a disaster for the HHH crew.. Maybe day 10 but looks like a front comes through after that

[CoastalWx]

Euro heater mid week next week.

[CoastalWx]

That’s a Ricky look.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC also a disaster for the HHH crew.. Maybe day 10 but looks like a front comes through after that

Stock up on TP. Summer sizzler of HHH about to settle in 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lets see if the Euro still has it at 12z   the GFS is a disaster for the heat and dews

https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1927403235452539027?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[weathafella]

6 hours ago, amarshall said:

Love the new updated SE mass drought.  I can tell you there's standing water everywhere.  Mosquitos are going to be the size of birds.  This drought map is nonsense 

 

 

Did you notice the effective date of that drought monitor map is 5/1?

[Great Snow 1717]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stock up on TP. Summer sizzler of HHH about to settle in 

I've never known someone to be sssoooo fascinated with toilet paper lol

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC also a disaster for the HHH crew.. Maybe day 10 but looks like a front comes through after that

Not really ... 570+ thickness building into the region after D7 ...?

though I'm not sure what, nor when, people are whining about in this recreational complaining outlet.   

But 588 height to Concord NH with 850s > 16C is is not a disaster for warmth and humidity 

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah sell the GFS with that thing...  that's spurious until it gets anything resembling support - which is far as I've found there is none.

[powderfreak]

Saturday system looks to be trending a bit towards a cutter/inland track.

Probably a bunch of p-type issues pretty far inland with those tracks.

6z Sat to 6z Sun.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro heater mid week next week.

I mean, haven’t we sort of been expecting that for days now?
Middle of next week has looked quite warm on long range for a while.  When it’s June, it’s time to have some 80s.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah... mid to maybe upper 80s for some.  Prob a 81-84 type deal here. Let's see if it holds

[powderfreak]

79/34 might be one of the best T/Td spreads for humans to exist outside, ha.

It’s amazing out there.  41 diurnal range today so far.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, powderfreak said:

79/34 might be one of the best T/Td spreads for humans to exist outside, ha.

It’s amazing out there.  41 diurnal range today so far.

I was able to bring my students outside today for an assignment.  It was supposed to happen last Thursday during the monsoon.  This was much better

[Typhoon Tip]

I think it's impressive that full foliage and that DP existing at the same time - very rare.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Saturday system looks to be trending a bit towards a cutter/inland track.

Probably a bunch of p-type issues pretty far inland with those tracks.

6z Sat to 6z Sun.

For fucks sake.  What a disaster.

[kdxken]