2025-2026 ENSO

[raindancewx]

I've been talking about cold retrogressing to the West with time in 2026. We're finally seeing it show up now. Will be curious to see how the winter finishes up nationally. We're running "only" +6F now for January, big improvement on December since we're already 150% of average for moisture this month. A lot of the NW is running +10-20 above normal winter to date. Its hard to believe some kind of nasty regression to the mean isn't coming with Western Canada still very cold.

As the cold moves toward a more-centered West location and moisture picks up as the La Nina weakens/dies, we should slowly move into a regime of different storm tracks and more powerful systems. I fully expect large areas of the lower 48 to see most of their significant snows in Feb-Mar. Activity by NE Asia earlier in the month supported more western storminess very late month January.

[GaWx]

On 1/12/2026 at 11:32 AM, GaWx said:

How would a potential shift to +AAM late month play into this? Is the +AAM the dog that wags a +PNA and/or phase 8 or do other things wag the AAM? Is the AAM a leader or a follower?

@SnowNiner

 

Look how much this changed in just 2 days of runs:

 

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Look how much this changed in just 2 days of runs:

 

I suspect that the recent EWB had an impact. La Niña is still exerting an influence. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that the recent EWB had an impact. La Niña is still exerting an influence. 

Would either of you mind giving an explanation of the AAM and how it relates to what we see in winter?

[snowfan789]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I've been talking about cold retrogressing to the West with time in 2026. We're finally seeing it show up now. Will be curious to see how the winter finishes up nationally. We're running "only" +6F now for January, big improvement on December since we're already 150% of average for moisture this month. A lot of the NW is running +10-20 above normal winter to date. Its hard to believe some kind of nasty regression to the mean isn't coming with Western Canada still very cold.

As the cold moves toward a more-centered West location and moisture picks up as the La Nina weakens/dies, we should slowly move into a regime of different storm tracks and more powerful systems. I fully expect large areas of the lower 48 to see most of their significant snows in Feb-Mar. Activity by NE Asia earlier in the month supported more western storminess very late month January.

Hope you’re right. It has been an historically abnormally warm and nearly snowless stretch for a sizable portion of the West this season so far. While that to some extent is to be expected at times with climate change, unfortunately, the giant leap we’ve very recently seen towards hot/dry is so extreme that it seemingly must revert towards the mean soon.

Also, appreciate the added ~Western perspective in a forum dominated by the eastern approximately 25% of the country. No criticism intended, but what happens in New England, the Great Lakes, and northern middle Atlantic represents a small portion of the U.S. geographically.

[BlizzardWx]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I've been talking about cold retrogressing to the West with time in 2026. We're finally seeing it show up now. Will be curious to see how the winter finishes up nationally. We're running "only" +6F now for January, big improvement on December since we're already 150% of average for moisture this month. A lot of the NW is running +10-20 above normal winter to date. Its hard to believe some kind of nasty regression to the mean isn't coming with Western Canada still very cold.

As the cold moves toward a more-centered West location and moisture picks up as the La Nina weakens/dies, we should slowly move into a regime of different storm tracks and more powerful systems. I fully expect large areas of the lower 48 to see most of their significant snows in Feb-Mar. Activity by NE Asia earlier in the month supported more western storminess very late month January.

I certainly hope so. The short term pattern looks a lot like early December for my area with repeated glancing blows from dry cold fronts. A little bit of a signal for some kind of wintry system around the 25th. 

[brooklynwx99]

who could have possibly seen this coming

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

who could have possibly seen this coming

Happening all winter