2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, George001 said:

I never really thought December would be a huge snow month for the I-95 corridor, I thought it would be a good month though. I still think that’s the right idea. However I disagree that there is nothing at all to support I-95 snowstorms in the next 14+ days. There is a window next weekend. Depends on how much that northern energy digs. I do however think we are seeing early signs that some of the early assumptions that you made about this upcoming winter could end up being wrong. Just curious what your thoughts are on that? Are you adjusting your Jan-Mar thoughts based on some of the things we have seen recently with the PDO, MJO, SOI and polar vortex? Or are you sticking to your guns? 

As far as February being canonical Niña? Nope and if I do change it, it won’t be until we are into January 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Day 14 on the operational 18z GFS 

 But the idea of a big Arctic plunge 12/12-17 deep down into the US (possibly from two highs per GFS) is becoming increasingly likely based on model guidance. This is very believable considering it would be during an EPS progged longest phase 8 in 50 years along with the highest % Dec 5th snowcover in the Midwest since at least 2002.

 This is also setting the table for a potential quite cold Dec/Jan considering the -PNA Dec -ENSO analogs suggesting a +PNA Jan, which would make it likely that DJF would end up colder than normal for much of the E US even if we get the favored mild Feb.

 The Euro Weeklies would have to bust badly to allow for a +PNA, but it’s been too strong with the SER since just before Thanksgiving.

[MJO812]

What warmup ? The same people that said a warmup in early December think the same thing about the end of December.  This month is going to end of very cold. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

What warmup ? The same people that said a warmup in early December think the same thing about the end of December.  This month is going to end of very cold. 

I think back a few days ago and ensembles had that ridge already slid across to the MA by 12/13.  Look at 162 hours today its not even close.  There is no doubt they've been way too warm beyond D8 for awhile now.

[leo2000]

A lot of people are forgetting all it takes is a transitional +PNA to get a big storm to pop on the east coast. Speaking about that models seem to be showing that on the 13th of December. I watch that period very closely for a miller b snowstorm. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I posted in this thread like 4-5 times a long time ago that weak-negativeENSO and strong -QBO has this strange coincidence of having super cold December's. 1989 and 2005 were examples. QBO is a stratosphere index so I didn't want to make the physical connection, but mentioned that it would be something if it happened again. And sure enough, it did happen again. This December is looking like one of the coldest in the eastern 1/2 since 2005. 

December 2010 was colder than December 2005, at least where I live.

05 34.4

-3.0

10 32.7

-4.7

If we do get colder than 2010, then 2000 would be next:

00 31.3

-6.1

Come to think of it, there's a weird coincidence that -ENSO Decembers in years that end in 0 or 5 (doesn't matter the strength) tend to be very cold in the East: