2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, George001 said:

I never really thought December would be a huge snow month for the I-95 corridor, I thought it would be a good month though. I still think that’s the right idea. However I disagree that there is nothing at all to support I-95 snowstorms in the next 14+ days. There is a window next weekend. Depends on how much that northern energy digs. I do however think we are seeing early signs that some of the early assumptions that you made about this upcoming winter could end up being wrong. Just curious what your thoughts are on that? Are you adjusting your Jan-Mar thoughts based on some of the things we have seen recently with the PDO, MJO, SOI and polar vortex? Or are you sticking to your guns? 

As far as February being canonical Niña? Nope and if I do change it, it won’t be until we are into January 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Day 14 on the operational 18z GFS 

 But the idea of a big Arctic plunge 12/12-17 deep down into the US (possibly from two highs per GFS) is becoming increasingly likely based on model guidance. This is very believable considering it would be during an EPS progged longest phase 8 in 50 years along with the highest % Dec 5th snowcover in the Midwest since at least 2002.

 This is also setting the table for a potential quite cold Dec/Jan considering the -PNA Dec -ENSO analogs suggesting a +PNA Jan, which would make it likely that DJF would end up colder than normal for much of the E US even if we get the favored mild Feb.

 The Euro Weeklies would have to bust badly to allow for a +PNA, but it’s been too strong with the SER since just before Thanksgiving.

[MJO812]

What warmup ? The same people that said a warmup in early December think the same thing about the end of December.  This month is going to end of very cold.