southmdwatcher Posted yesterday at 12:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:30 PM We have quite a few breaks in the clouds, and the sun is doing it's thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted yesterday at 01:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:00 PM SPC upgraded to Enhanced for NC/SC and GA for wind. They are waiting to see if our region needs to be upgraded at the next update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted yesterday at 01:23 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:23 PM I'm on board for today... think tornado potential is decent up to the MD/PA border. 8 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted yesterday at 01:23 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:23 PM 12z HRRR has shifted the heaviest stuff to the north of the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 02:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:10 PM SPC expanded the slight risk area northward. Now covers almost all VA and MD east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted yesterday at 02:29 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:29 PM Sunshine? - Check Shear? - Present-ish CAPE? - Present-ish MLLR? - Nope.@Eskimo Joe - Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 02:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:30 PM 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Sunshine? - Check Shear? - Present-ish CAPE? - Present-ish MLLR? - Nope.@Eskimo Joe - Thoughts? @Ellinwood - on board and good for tornado potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 02:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:32 PM 1 hour ago, southmdwatcher said: SPC upgraded to Enhanced for NC/SC and GA for wind. They are waiting to see if our region needs to be upgraded at the next update. Yup Farther north across VA/MD/DE, confidence regarding storm mode is lower, with some guidance suggesting the potential for discrete/semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front. These storms would have the potential for severe wind/hail, and potentially pose a tornado risk with stronger/more sustained storms. If confidence increases regarding the expected coverage of severe storms in this area, then higher severe probabilities may be warranted with the 1630z Convective Outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 02:39 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:39 PM 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Sunshine? - Check Shear? - Present-ish CAPE? - Present-ish MLLR? - Nope.@Eskimo Joe - Thoughts? Someone could get a tornado tornado today east of I-95. Not sold on the flood risk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted yesterday at 03:19 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:19 PM WPC frontal analysis assesses that the front is north of many of us but as a stationary front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted yesterday at 03:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:41 PM Pretty curious to see how today plays out in this region. Very potent vort max should provide a lot of dynamic support for strong convection, although the mid level lapse rates/instability definitely leave something to be desired (which immediately makes me question the height of the ceiling). Seems a supercell storm mode may be favored though, which given the magnitude of the low level shear should be a cause for some concern. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted yesterday at 03:55 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:55 PM You know it's at least somewhat intriguing when @andyhb pops into the Mid-Atlantic forum. And as always, thanks for your insight/thoughts! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted yesterday at 04:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:10 PM 24 minutes ago, andyhb said: Pretty curious to see how today plays out in this region. Very potent vort max should provide a lot of dynamic support for strong convection, although the mid level lapse rates/instability definitely leave something to be desired (which immediately makes me question the height of the ceiling). Seems a supercell storm mode may be favored though, which given the magnitude of the low level shear should be a cause for some concern. The more northern track of the surface low likely reduces the flash flood threat for most of us, but it definitely increases the severe threat. Surface winds may end up too light, but if they’re not, some of the morning guidance does show enough turning in the low levels to generate favorable hodographs. The 12z HREF reflects this with a notable increase in the probabilities for good UH values into the DC/Baltimore region, relative to earlier guidance, and I would not be surprised if the 1630 outlook brings the 5% TOR further north. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted yesterday at 04:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:10 PM Very big expansion of the 5% Tor in the latest outlook… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 04:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:12 PM 10% tor probs were considered... woah @Kmlwx @high risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with 55-70 mph gusts capable of wind damage extending from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Southeast. The potential for a few tornadoes exists from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the OH-TN Valleys with this feature forecast to move into the Mid-Atlantic states/Carolinas by late evening. In response to this shortwave trough, a deepening surface cyclone will move from the KY/WV border east-northeastward along a quasi-stationary front into southeast PA/NJ by evening. A trailing cold front will move across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and Virginia. Wind profiles across the warm sector of the deepening cyclone will be seasonably strong, but instability is expected to be tempered by weak midlevel lapse rates and substantial cloud cover. As large-scale ascent with the approaching shortwave trough develops across the warm sector, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and near the cold front. A mix of cells and linear bands will gradually evolve into broken band convective structures with time as storms move east. Strengthening 700-mb flow (40-50 kt) amidst diurnally steepened 0-2 km lapse rates will favor strong to severe gusts. Damaging winds (55-70 mph) are expected to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado threat will exist primarily with bowing segments. Farther north, the northern extent of a destabilizing warm sector immediately ahead of the deepening surface low, will favor an increasing severe risk this afternoon. Scattered storm development is initially forecast near the higher terrain with additional cellular development expected (consistent signal in recent HRRR runs) in the northern VA to southeast PA corridor late this afternoon and especially into the evening. Given the moist low levels and favorably shaped hodographs in proximity to the surface low, have enlarged 5-percent tornado probabilities for a supercell-tornado risk. Some consideration for higher tornado probabilities was given, but confidence was too low at this time. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted yesterday at 04:23 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:23 PM Well seems our weenie handbook "SPC playing catch-up" checkbox could also be getting checked 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 04:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:36 PM Looks like we should reach into the lower 80s for temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 04:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:49 PM Tornado Warnings starting from RLX in S WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 05:11 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:11 PM Tornado Watch coming soon for western part of the CWA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted yesterday at 05:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:12 PM Just now, yoda said: Tornado Watch coming soon for western part of the CWA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 05:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:30 PM 16z HRRR looks to bring in a line of supercells through the i95 corridor between 6pm and 9pm... then rotates in a complex of heavy rain after midnight for N VA/DC/MD 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 05:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:36 PM Tornado Watch up for i81 corridor for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 05:42 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:42 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted yesterday at 06:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:24 PM 48 minutes ago, yoda said: Expanded south and west, now the western 2/3's of the forum in a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 06:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:24 PM With mid and high levels clouds pushing in, I wonder if this puts a lid on a more robust tornado potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 07:04 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:04 PM Radar seems ahead of schedule relative to meso models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 07:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:09 PM I think our line we are watching is in WV right now for this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted yesterday at 07:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:12 PM HRRR for a few hours in the future 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted yesterday at 07:18 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:18 PM 5 minutes ago, Chinook said: HRRR for a few hours in the future Correct me if I'm wrong but that would be a line of at least quasi-supercellular activity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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