Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 Let's get drunk with crazy uncle at 18Z and call it a day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Let's get drunk with crazy uncle at 18Z and call it a day Fire em back ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea liquid…juice A ton of liquid in CT. This will be known for its flooding and winds south of 84.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fire em back ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: A ton of liquid in CT. This will be known for its flooding and winds south of 84.. it's going to have to really rip and pour because it looks like the meat is moving quick before the slot and ZR drizzle, perhaps a few inches of SN and a couple inches of IP would be the bulk....I don't want an inch of ZR or just plain RN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: A ton of liquid in CT. This will be known for its flooding and winds south of 84.. You’re nuts. You’ll spend most of Sunday 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: A ton of liquid in CT. This will be known for its flooding and winds south of 84.. That's what I'm afraid of. With the frozen ground the rain is going to have no where to go except to pool in my yard, basement, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’re nuts. You’ll spend most of Sunday 33 Heavy rain at 33 is still going to run off. If you can’t freeze it or absorb it, it’s gonna produce some localized flooding. Hell, even during the historic ice storm in 2008, the street was like a river running down it on winter hill when I was outside around midnight while trees were starting to snap. It’s because it was coming down so hard that the accretion rate wasn’t super efficient and we were losing a ton of QPF to runoff. We had like 3” of QPF in that storm but it didn’t all accrete as ice…and that was at 30-31F…when it’s 33-34 you aren’t accreting anything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Me old standard NAM FOUS from 18z was tick colder. The triangulation method implied 5 or 6" of snow along Rt 2 west of 95 on on out, then a mix of IP and ZR to some .3" accretion before ending, but could be higher ice if less IP Exactly BOX is drunk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Heavy rain at 33 is still going to run off. If you can’t freeze it or absorb it, it’s gonna produce some localized flooding. Hell, even during the historic ice storm in 2008, the street was like a river running down it on winter hill when I was outside around midnight while trees were starting to snap. It’s because it was coming down so hard that the accretion rate wasn’t super efficient and we were losing a ton of QPF to runoff. We had like 3” of QPF in that storm but it didn’t all accrete as ice…and that was at 30-31F…when it’s 33-34 you aren’t accreting anything. I understand all that but he is a huge HRRR guy. He saw that earlier 12z run of 50’s and envisioned all his snow wiped out . That is not happening there. He’s got 5” of glacier . Will add 2-5” then some ice and then a cold rain . Farther north at 31.4/31.8 it’ll be ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I understand all that but he is a huge HRRR guy. He saw that earlier 12z run of 50’s and envisioned all his snow wiped out . That is not happening there. He’s got 5” of glacier . Will add 2-5” then some ice and then a cold rain . Farther north at 31.4/31.8 it’ll be ice lol 90% of guidance spikes to 50 up to 84. I don’t hug any models just stating what I see. Also all guidance has 1-2” of actual liquid rain down here. I envision several hours over 45 with a spike to 50-55 in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: lol 90% of guidance spikes to 50 up to 84. I don’t hug any models just stating what I see. Also all guidance has 1-2” of actual liquid rain down here. I envision several hours over 45 with a spike to 50-55 in spots. Only the HRRR did that. And it’s cooling and flatter .NAM went way colder , Euro cold , Reggie cold. You’ll stay low - mid 30’s. Rest easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Only the HRRR did that. And it’s cooling and flatter .NAM went way colder , Euro cold , Reggie cold. You’ll stay low - mid 30’s. Rest easy Hrrr doesn’t go out that far… here’s some other guidance.. you are on the line. I’m well into the 40s around 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Hrrr doesn’t go out that far… here’s some other guidance.. you are on the line. I’m well into the 40s around 50. Post the 3k NAM and Reggie and A1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Post the 3k NAM and Reggie and A1 Those are colder that’s why I didn’t show them lol. Going out to dinner with the wife, we will discuss 00z later. I hope you are right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Those are colder that’s why I didn’t show them lol. Going out to dinner with the wife, we will discuss 00z later. I hope you are right. Enjoy and relax ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 28 minutes ago, metagraphica said: That's what I'm afraid of. With the frozen ground the rain is going to have no where to go except to pool in my yard, basement, etc... That happened to me one year in December, bad cold snap, ground was frozen solid, and we got 2-3 inches of rain, only time I ever had water in my basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 Got a trim, Going to be IP/ZR here after a front end thump. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2025 Author Share Posted February 15, 2025 Final map is all done....should be post by 9. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea liquid…juice Mostly ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 Does the mid-level warmth come in earlier than expected? We are going to sleet up north, just a matter of how quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 51 minutes ago, dryslot said: Got a trim, Going to be IP/ZR here after a front end thump. This is gonna end up like yesterdays - lotta hype for a lotta meh 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 Just now, NW_of_GYX said: This is gonna end up like yesterdays - lotta hype for a lotta meh You even taint with this track, But NW of you and up north should stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 This map looks odd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You even taint with this track, But NW of you and up north should stay all snow. There’s a decent pack building in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 3 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: There’s a decent pack building in the mountains. I'm heading up to Eustis in the morning, There looking at 12-16", They got 8" yesterday up there, Going to ride over to 15 mile stream in West Forks for lunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2025 Author Share Posted February 15, 2025 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/final-call-for-messy-holiday-weekend.html FINAL CALL: First Call issued Wednesday, February 12 @ 830pm: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm heading up to Eustis in the morning, There looking at 12-16", They got 8" yesterday up there, Going to ride over to 15 mile stream in West Forks for lunch. Enjoy, should be a beautiful deep winter day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2025 Share Posted February 15, 2025 Matches this decently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now