Rjay Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: It’s gonna rain on us isn’t it rjay Like Forky said there's really nothing to stop this from coming west up until game time. I think it's likely but we'll see. I hope it snows for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 1 hour ago, TJW014 said: Well out of range, HRRR has rain north of I-287 It's supposed to be rain at 12Z Sunday (7 am EST) as the cold air hasn't moved in yet. And stop looking at the 48 hr HRRR, the one that predicted 6" for that little SNJ 1" storm around 1/9. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: It’s gonna rain on us isn’t it rjay You'll rain and then have a high of 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Maintain the view from yesterday that the risk here is likely more to the coastal boundary layer and feel good about snows north of the merrit and west of 287. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Reggie is mind killer, even immediate north and west areas of nyc get screwed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Gfs looks plenty cold 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Gfs ticks east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Basically the same. A tick east but more mixing in Monmouth but just noise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Basically the same. A tick east but more mixing in Monmouth but just noise 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Paste job for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, MJO812 said: Kuchera sucks. If you need to post a snow map just post 10:1 and you can reasonably figure out your total based on other parameters, soundings and experience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 This low is flying. It's basically snows/rains for less than 12 hours but it's going to come down hard in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 GFS, brings the weenies back to life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Basically the same. A tick east but more mixing in Monmouth but just noise Sigh of relief. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, jm1220 said: Sigh of relief. It ticked like 6 miles east lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, Rjay said: It ticked like 6 miles east lol Just glad it didn’t lurch NW. But plenty of time for that to happen still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, Rjay said: It ticked like 6 miles east lol Actually it's the same imo 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Kuchera sucks. If you need to post a snow map just post 10:1 and you can reasonably figure out your total based on other parameters, soundings and experience. There's a lot of debate among meteorologists about it. At least Kuchera takes something into account while 10:1 takes nothing into account. The Kuchera maps are far from perfect but they help in situations in which you're going to be better or worse than 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, winterwx21 said: There's a lot of debate amount meteorologists about it. At least Kuchera takes something into account while 10:1 takes nothing into account. The Kuchera maps are far from perfect but they help in situations in which you're going to be better or worse than 10:1 ratio. Yea but you can look at the other parameters or soundings and use your experience from tracking these storms for years to figure that stuff out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 11 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Reggie is mind killer, even immediate north and west areas of nyc get screwed too. We would be fine here in Rockland County even on the RGEM. Got to be able to smell the rain to get the heaviest snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, Rjay said: Yea but you can look at the other parameters or soundings and use your experience from tracking these storms for years to figure that stuff out. You're asking alot of some people 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Just glad it didn’t lurch NW. But plenty of time for that to happen still. Why are you so cautious ? Just enjoy model tracking and hope for the best. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, MJO812 said: Why are you so cautious ? Just enjoy model tracking and hope for the best. I wouldn't be confident of a mostly snow event even where I am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Yea but you can look at the other parameters or soundings and use your experience from tracking these storms for years to figure that stuff out. Kuchera almost always over inflates. Rarely do you see it accurately predict under 10:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, Rjay said: Yea but you can look at the other parameters or soundings and use your experience from tracking these storms for years to figure that stuff out. Yeah that's true. That's the best thing to do, but I don't see a problem with posting Kuchera maps since they help at least somewhat. For many of our events they've been closer to reality when they've showed very good or very poor snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Why are you so cautious ? Just enjoy model tracking and hope for the best. K. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why are you so cautious ? Just enjoy model tracking and hope for the best. Why are you such a weenie? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 It's a bit troublesome to me that the NAM is so weak with development. I think it's because it's quite a bit less amped up than even the 12z GFS. Usually in this type of setup the NAM would be showing a coastal hugger. It's completely on its own and the rest of the modeling has been fairly consistent so I'm largely tossing it, but it's still possible that things don't get going quickly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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