TSSN+ Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Euro operational may be the "superior" model, but that doesn't mean it always gives the superior forecast. Waiting to hear 6z AI is even wetter 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Waiting to hear 6z AI is even wetter You decide 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: You decide Hard to tell from Atari maps but looks good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: You decide If I'm guessing the scale right... pink is 0.5"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 25 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: There’s still like 40-50% of euro eps members showing nothing. For 2 days out I’m tired of these huge differences. Ever since psu brought up a miss to the NW I’ve been looking over even the individual members of ensembles lol. 6z GEFS is a little scary. Quite a few misses that look like worse, drier versions of the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, TSSN+ said: Hard to tell from Atari maps but looks good I was gonna say. I'm not trusting anything with maps from the 80's. What does it even show lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 You decideIm just NE of Philly, I’m more worried about a rgem solution vs SE. That GEFS run was concerning as well too, there were a lot of NW solutions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You decide That's the 12hr total. But looking at the 6hr maps, I doubt if it's less and gut days a touch more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Anybody got that good national blend thingy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 2 minutes ago, yoda said: If I'm guessing the scale right... pink is 0.5"+ 10-25mm quite the range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, Paleocene said: Anybody got that good national blend thingy? Maker's Mark and Colt 45 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Maker's Mark and Colt 45 Pretty sure some of these models broke into the liquor cabinet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 So Doom and Gloom Friday I see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 14 minutes ago, Heisy said: Im just NE of Philly, I’m more worried about a rgem solution vs SE. That GEFS run was concerning as well too, there were a lot of NW solutions . Canadians stopped moving nw with their 6z runs and actually look a touch east from 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 15 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Anybody got that good national blend thingy? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Not really a threat until we get a happy hour Nam'ing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 30 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Waiting to hear 6z AI is even wetter The run to run consistency on the AI for this event is almost astonishing. I just went back 19 runs and it never waivered. Here is what is what is looked like at 186 hours: 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 11 minutes ago, Interstate said: So Doom and Gloom Friday I see. I don’t know why either. I woke up and things looked great at 6z. I don’t get all the fuss and worry. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, stormtracker said: I don’t know why either. I woke up and things looked great at 6z. I don’t get all the fuss and worry. Woke up to a nice little surprise. A white dusting. I am keeping hope alive. Clicking my heels three times because I believe. I knew the strip of qpf would fill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, stormtracker said: I don’t know why either. I woke up and things looked great at 6z. I don’t get all the fuss and worry. The ability to feel satisfied inside is becoming a lost art. I blame tiktok 7 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The ability to feel satisfied inside is becoming a lost art. I blame tiktok I blame this Board 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 8 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: The run to run consistency on the AI for this event is almost astonishing. I just went back 19 runs and it never waivered. Here is what is what is looked like at 186 hours: Shall we dub it the new King? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I don’t know why either. I woke up and things looked great at 6z. I don’t get all the fuss and worry. Right. And we have an historic cold push on the way. I realize it's 'behind' the system, but the PV flexing S is only going to allow for so much NW 'trend'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I don’t know why either. I woke up and things looked great at 6z. I don’t get all the fuss and worry. Yeah this looks great. We’re getting snow before an arctic blast and there’s snow on the ground. As good as it gets here. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I don’t know why either. I woke up and things looked great at 6z. I don’t get all the fuss and worry. Because of these silly snow maps. All it takes is one run that shows a 86" hit and THATS what people hold onto for the entire time. We could see a nice 3-4" snow from this but if the GFS-AIasapbbq shows 12 one time then thats what people expect. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Slightly more qpf than 0z 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I don’t know why either. I woke up and things looked great at 6z. I don’t get all the fuss and worry. Same...I read through (more like skimmed) back several pages when I got up this morning. The actual discussion parts sounded pretty darned good to me, so I didn't get all these doom posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Shall we dub it the new King? Perhaps we'll call it the Prince Regent for now, until it proves itself more! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 Just now, TSSN+ said: Slightly more qpf than 0z Didn't I say I thought it was a little more, even with those crummy maps? Being a weenie can be rewarding at times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2025 Share Posted January 17, 2025 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Slightly more qpf than 0z the AI’s speciality is decidedly not surface temps but people may need to start hoping it’s at least a little wrong… everyone is okay by 7pm which is the best frame for most, though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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