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Rocktober Obs/DISCO


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Already another AN in the books. 
 

CON record low for the date is 24°. That may as well be Barrow right now. 

September started -1.7 through first 12 days of the month at MVL.

September ended at +4.1 :lol:.

Thats like an all-time torch in the second half of the month.  7 straight days +10< in there too.

Yesterday +12, today probably similar to start October.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Already another AN in the books. 
 

CON record low for the date is 24°. That may as well be Barrow right now. 

Sept 1 was +8 and today will be closer to +4.  Progress?
 

September numbers -

Avg max:   69.1   +0.8    Warmest, 80 on the 17th
Avg min:    46.6   +1.1    Coolest, 37 on the 23rd.  Mildest for Sept's lowest, topping last year's 35.
Mean:        58.3  +0.9   
The month's average diurnal range was 22.5° which is 0.3° AN, a small departure but it's the first month with AN range since May 2023.  Had 15 straight months with BN ranges.

Precip:   1.51"    -2.10"    The 1.39" on 9/26 was the only day with more than 0.05".

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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Already another AN in the books. 
 

CON record low for the date is 24°. That may as well be Barrow right now. 

yet at the same time ... we're working thru a 3rd consecutive week of ne-e flow fisting sw out of a -nao (western limb) something like 90 percent of the time.   even when the nao block waned during that time range ... some pos front or worthless decaying tropical garbage sw-s keeps the e flow active.

it's a local eastern n/a effect that's making it 'seem' more autumn like but it's (typical for this region) fake

i guess what i'm bitching about is that 850 thermal mean through this period would have led to sfc summer appeal the whole way if we could buy a f'n coffee break of wsw wind and minimum sun

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Saturday seems fine. Maybe a shower in nrn ORh county?

Yeah I should have specifically mentioned more for NNE. Not looking so great, clouds and showers from late Fri night to late Saturday afternoon for all the peepers. 

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6 hours ago, NoCORH4L said:

Yeah I should have specifically mentioned more for NNE. Not looking so great, clouds and showers from late Fri night to late Saturday afternoon for all the peepers. 

Everything I've been looking at is okay for here. Brief bit of rain in the morning maybe and then pretty nice. Hope you make out okay.

 

Screenshot_20241001_210308_Chrome.jpg

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We should be getting into the 30s at night with some regularity at this point. Average low is 40 currently. The type of thing where a 55F min is cancelled out by a 25F min.  And that’s the average low of the current record set, which is already warm.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

We should be getting into the 30s at night with some regularity at this point (average of 40F).  And that’s the average low of the current record set, which is already warm.

Enjoy that extra month of growing season if you're in northern New England I guess.

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12 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Enjoy that extra month of growing season if you're in northern New England I guess.

CON’s average low is at 43F right now, BML at 37F over in NH.

There is no doubt the growing season has been increasing in the past decade or two.  Growing season is very much in progress at all elevations under the tree-line.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

CON’s average is at 43F right now, BML at 37F.

There is no doubt the growing season has been increasing in the past decade or two.

Average first frost date at BDL was 9/30 from the 1971-2000 normals, 10/4 in the 1981-2010 normals, and now 10/6 with the 1991-2020 set, so a shift of 6 days later over the last 20 years. Probably similar pattern at every station.

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2 hours ago, snowman21 said:

Average first frost date at BDL was 9/30 from the 1971-2000 normals, 10/4 in the 1981-2010 normals, and now 10/6 with the 1991-2020 set, so a shift of 6 days later over the last 20 years. Probably similar pattern at every station.

So here’s the question.   When I hear first frost I’m thinking frost otg or needing to be scraped off the car.  2M temps are often above freezing since ground temperatures can be colder.  So what do you mean by first frost?  First freeze for BOS averaged 11/7 in the dataset 1961-90.  I’m not sure it’s substantially different now actually.

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4 hours ago, weathafella said:

So here’s the question.   When I hear first frost I’m thinking frost otg or needing to be scraped off the car.  2M temps are often above freezing since ground temperatures can be colder.  So what do you mean by first frost?  First freeze for BOS averaged 11/7 in the dataset 1961-90.  I’m not sure it’s substantially different now actually.

He’s using frost/freeze interchangeably. 

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7 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Amazing pattern, let's hold through next March/April

So, just a question. You have always been one to hope for warmth during the Winter months. Why come in here and constantly push for warmth/No Snow when you know you are on the  " Winter Thread "? It doesn't make sense to me..... Not that I'm unnerved by you, just baffled? 

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4 hours ago, weathafella said:

So here’s the question.   When I hear first frost I’m thinking frost otg or needing to be scraped off the car.  2M temps are often above freezing since ground temperatures can be colder.  So what do you mean by first frost?  First freeze for BOS averaged 11/7 in the dataset 1961-90.  I’m not sure it’s substantially different now actually.

First frost is the first low temperature at or below 36°F.

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+pna/-nao continues in both the production version/means, and the ensemble-based teleconnectors.

interesting that the pac is stuck in that +wpo/+epo while the above persists.  

anyway ... the gfs (operational) is trying to sell 'blue' thickness intrusion/oscillatory pattern ... beginning by the end of the week.  frost(s) would like take place on any interim night in that regime between ~ 9th and the 16th.    the tendency to over exemplify base patterns in that time range, notwithstanding.

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