September 2024

[Allsnow]

 

[LAVistaNY]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

same here with certain trees

I have notice the sugar maple’s don’t color like they used to, but just turn brown, crumple, and fall off. I suspect a new to us fungus?

[steve392]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Awesome, looking forward to my cold and 430 sunsets! 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Awesome, looking forward to my cold and 430 sunsets! 

I'm looking forward to my 33 and rain

[MJO812]

Gfs and cmc have a hurricane into Florida at the end of September

[Brian5671]

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All the models have brought rain back closer to the coast 

I see a new trend today to back rain in from the east on Friday

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I see a new trend today to back rain in from the east on Friday

Euro continues to be very wet for tomorrow 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Euro continues to be very wet for tomorrow 

Yeah it gives us over 2 inches of rain. I'm still gonna give the garden a good watering today though, since it's still very questionable with the models all over the place. 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it gives us over 2 inches of rain. I'm still gonna give the garden a good watering today though, since it's still very questionable with the models all over the place. 

 

[forkyfork]

not a single other model supports the euro

[FPizz]

28 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

not a single other model supports the euro

NAM is the closest to it total rainfall wise, all others no

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it gives us over 2 inches of rain. I'm still gonna give the garden a good watering today though, since it's still very questionable with the models all over the place. 

Yeah it ain't happening

[Monty]

5 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Still gotta get the boys to Bassfest!

I attended that many years ago. Threw a lot of flight wheel, got totally wizzed out.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

When does this stuck up pattern get a laxative , early october . beyond this?

 

I'm going to guess based on what I see, maybe early October 50% chance then the stuck up pattern reloads for most of October and a complete break from this pattern in late October or early November.

WX/PT

[Brian5671]

LOL NAM

[Allsnow]

Icon wetter 

[uofmiami]

Here's a novel idea, watch the radar tomorrow!  All the model waffling from run to run is comical.

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon wetter 

It's jumping around too-it's wetter west now.   Completely different from 12z.    RGEM is bone dry now like the 3K NAM

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's jumping around too-it's wetter west now.   Completely different from 12z.    RGEM is bone dry now like the 3K NAM

Yeah, I think I’ll be lucky to get .10 here tomorrow. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, I think I’ll be lucky to get .10 here tomorrow. 

I'm going with zero here.   Maybe something on Friday.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL NAM

3k 

[bluewave]

It’s been a while since we have seen a month start off like this.

 

[Allsnow]

Gfs nothing like the euro. Does have some rain Thursday evening 

[donsutherland1]

Some moisture from the southeast will likely bring showers and perhaps some periods of rain to the northern Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. Showers could persist into Friday. Rainfall amounts from New York City northward have fallen in the recent guidance as the high to the north turns out somewhat stronger and more expansive than modeled during recent days.

In terms of dry weather regionally, today is on track to become Boston's 28th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. That would be tied for the 5th longest dry stretch on record. Records go back to 1872. Some of the guidance brings light but measurable rainfall to Boston tomorrow or Thursday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -5.17 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.871 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.7° (0.4° below normal).

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

3k 

Time to take that model out behind the woodshed, seriously 

[Allsnow]

[Allsnow]

Latest hrrr 

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Latest hrrr 

Yeah I was just gonna mention that too. Maybe the Euro wasn't crazy afterall, but who knows. I have no idea what to expect tomorrow, but hopefully we'll get a good soaking. Man do we need it. 

[Stormlover74]

Nams 

 

There is more after this. 3knam has some showers friday morning but nothing like regular nam

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 95 (1991)
NYC: 93 (1991)
LGA: 95 (1991)
JFK: 90 (1991)

Lows:

EWR: 44 (1950)
NYC: 45 (1986)
LGA: 48 (1986)
JFK: 48 (1958)

Historical:

 

1932 - Concord NH was drenched with 5.97 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for that location (16th- 17th). (The Weather Channel)

1963 - Nearly two and a half inches of rain fell at Yuma AZ in 24 hours. It was the most intense rain for Yuma during the period between 19S09 and 1977. (The Weather Channel)

1965 - A storm produced a band of heavy snow across parts of Wyoming. Totals of 23 inches at Rawlins and 20.7 inches at Lander easily surpassed previous snowfall record totals for so early in the season. (15th-17th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Heavy rain in southwestern Pennsylvania forced evacuation of twenty homes along Four Mile Run Creek, near Darlington. Harrisburg PA established a record for the date with 2.11 inches of rain. A cold front in the central U.S. brought freezing temperatures to parts of Montana and Wyoming. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Early in the morning a tornado hit Kelly Air Force Base in San Antonio, TX, injuring three persons and causing twenty-eight million dollars damage. A second tornado on the northwest side of San Antonio caused six million dollars damage, and a third tornado in Bexar County killed one person and injured another. Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Gilbert spawned a total of forty-seven tornadoes in a two day period, with forty of those tornadoes in central and south central Texas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit the Virgin Islands, producing wind gusts to 97 mph at Saint Croix. Hurricane Hugo passed directly over the island of Saint Croix causing complete devastation and essentially cutting off the island from communications. A storm surge of five to seven feet occurred at Saint Croix. The only rain gauge left operating, at Caneel Bay, indicated 9.40 inches in 24 hours. Hurricane Hugo claimed the lives of three persons at Saint Croix, and caused more than 500 million dollars damage. A ship, Nightcap, in the harbor of Culebra, measured wind gusts as high as 170 mph. A cold front brought high winds to the Great Basin and the Rocky Mountain Region, and thunderstorms along the cold front produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Yellowstone Park WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2004 - The remnants of Hurricane Ivan submerged Pittsburgh in 5.95 inches of rain in one day. That is the most rainfall Pittsburgh has seen in a 24-hour period since records began in 1876.