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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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Slight risk Friday! Awt

 ...Northeast...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the
   Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the
   region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in
   the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability
   in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures
   warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around
   midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower
   elevations during the afternoon.

   There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will
   develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions
   suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the
   front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate
   instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels,
   and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would
   support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage
   possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after
   peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon.
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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Things you love to see…..

2bO2lpu.jpeg

As much as I hate the heat, it may not be the worst thing in the world to see more PNW troughing and NE ridging this summer. I have seen some posts about how this maybe part of the semi-permanent pattern we have been stuck in, whereas its PNW troughing during the winter and ridging over the summer. Maybe break that up...willing to try anything, at this point.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh a few bolts. Meanwhile we hot and heavy starting Tuesday next week. 

Haven't seen much just yet but the operational Euro was big.  4 day heat wave with a couple days easily flirting with 101.

that could also end up protracted ... possibly even in two waves heading into the last week of the month. An intermission in between, where it's just 80s and thunder before rolling back in type thing.  Not sure, since we've been monitoring this signal, the end game doesn't appear to have a play book yet. The ensemble means deteriorating coherency, not changing pattern, doesn't lend to knowing. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Haven't seen much just yet but the operational Euro was big.  4 day heat wave with a couple days easily flirting with 101.

that could also end up protracted ... possibly even in two waves heading into the last week of July with. An intermission where it's just 80s and thunder before rolling back in type thing.  Not sure, since we've been monitoring this signal, the end game doesn't appear to have a play book yet. The ensemble means deteriorating coherency, not changing pattern, doesn't lend to knowing. 

Just curious, models were showing 90’s late this week into the weekend and have since backed off, might we see the same name next week? Instead 95-100 do we see 88-93 type heat? I don’t trust the models in the long range until they show some sort of consistency. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Haven't seen much just yet but the operational Euro was big.  4 day heat wave with a couple days easily flirting with 101.

that could also end up protracted ... possibly even in two waves heading into the last week of the month. An intermission in between, where it's just 80s and thunder before rolling back in type thing.  Not sure, since we've been monitoring this signal, the end game doesn't appear to have a play book yet. The ensemble means deteriorating coherency, not changing pattern, doesn't lend to knowing. 

It’s possible one or two of those days flirts high end with wrly winds and dews mixing out for sure. 

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Could equal the number of 90° days we had all last summer just next week. As much as I hate the heat as long as we don't get the 20 inches of rain a month like last summer I can handle it.

That was really incredible. Everything we tried to do outside got washed out. What made it all the more anomalous was that none of it had to do with a tropical system or its remnants. 

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Could equal the number of 90° days we had all last summer just next week. As much as I hate the heat as long as we don't get the 20 inches of rain a month like last summer I can handle it.

That’s the key, yup. Need it dry. Last summeh was one of the worst  warm seasons I can ever recall.

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Friday has good height falls and a sharpening s/w. Could cause some flooding as storms may try to train for an hour or two..maybe SNH on WSW. Can see mid level flow back which may help align storms to train.  But temps cooling and good height falls should move storms towards the coast in the evening I think.

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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know a few areas had SVR and we know what happened in Andover/Lawrence and Leominster...just speaking overall.

Yeah it was widespread heavy rains but more mundane big totals... however, I do not remember a summer like last year where regularly entire towns would get like wiped off the map in some historical flash flood.  I feel like there were a good dozen events spread from VT/NH/ME/MA/CT/RI of like localized obscene rainfall... just infrastructure decimating short-duration rainfall.

By the end of the summer, some town getting 7" in 3 hours was like "oh, there's another place destroyed."

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it was widespread heavy rains but more mundane big totals... however, I do not remember a summer like last year where regularly entire towns would get like wiped off the map in some historical flash flood.  I feel like there were a good dozen events spread from VT/NH/ME/MA/CT/RI of like localized obscene rainfall... just infrastructure decimating short-duration rainfall.

By the end of the summer, some town getting 7" in 3 hours was like "oh, there's another place destroyed."

Theta-e pooling under permanent +PNA residue flow structure festered and stole heat from the days and dumped it into drainage basins while nights stayed elevated so that CC gets to keep truckin’ along pos boring season 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Friday has good height falls and a sharpening s/w. Could cause some flooding as storms may try to train for an hour or two..maybe SNH on WSW. Can see mid level flow back which may help align storms to train.  But temps cooling and good height falls should move storms towards the coast in the evening I think.

Methuen JP.

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