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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I find myself looking at it as the warm season and cold season.  We are now solidly in the warm season.

Summer or spring is a semantics argument.  It’s moving away from looking for ways to heat the living space, to windows open or A/C.

Cold or warm season… it’s a gradual transition but feels like it’s been made.  Natural snow is melting off the highest elevations to patchy cover in the spruce groves, and the valley dew points are seeing more elevated lengths of time.  Evenings are mild at times.  And the crisp frosts are becoming rare even up here in the NNE radiational spots.  Flipped to warm season.

Evening dews are elevated.  People notice/feel it.

IMG_9616.gif.9d71eeb47d74fcf5099d5c51d42a2285.gif 

 

Right right ... now all we have to do is actually get it to be warm - or at least keep things that way long enough to not be gipped

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49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get some 80s next week 

you can sense the models are trying desperately to f it all up though.  they'll probably fail ... but they have 850 mb temperatures capable of 80 from really Saturday through next Friday, but limit highs to the mid 70s on a lot of those days.  From what I can tell, it's all cloud production/RH at 700 thru 300 mb being perfectly wrongly timed.  Sunday, the Euro and Icon have all of a scant 1 to 2mb of +discontinuity between GOM and NYC and use it to keep it 62 F clear to Albany. 

It's probably the earliest hints of the new summer steam bath, capped high Ts, but super elevated low, black mold paradigm we've been getting as a repeating theme in recent summers.   just waiting for the canonical western heat bulge of summer to cause a permanent nadir/theta-e cess pool over the east -

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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I find myself looking at it as the warm season and cold season.  We are now solidly in the warm season.

Summer or spring is a semantics argument.  It’s moving away from looking for ways to heat the living space, to windows open or A/C.

Cold or warm season… it’s a gradual transition but feels like it’s been made.  Natural snow is melting off the highest elevations to patchy cover in the spruce groves, and the valley dew points are seeing more elevated lengths of time.  Evenings are mild at times.  And the crisp frosts are becoming rare even up here in the NNE radiational spots.  Flipped to warm season.

Evening dews are elevated.  People notice/feel it.

IMG_9616.gif.9d71eeb47d74fcf5099d5c51d42a2285.gif 

 

This current system, despite the wind and rain. My windows are open and I am still wearing shorts...the house actually feels muggy this time and quite frankly for the first time all Spring. So I have to agree, we are finally turning the page

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this system is actually rather unusual. 

there's almost no support above low levels for it's mechanical existence.  the strongest winds are associated with the 850mb parked just S of LI, with an easterly anomaly tube running straight over S zones... meanwhile, the velocities get progressively weaker as you go to the 700 then 500 ...etc.  In fact, 5 to 10 kts at 500 mb.

It's odd that this thing is so basement loaded like that, while still being a cold core system associated with the westerlies.  Where's the mid and upper level divergence/q-g forcing..? etc..

 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

This is a perfect rain here. Not enough to wash away the stuff I put down, but a decent drink and washes pollen away. 

 

Looks like a stein pattern after today.

Yeah... it's probably more fortunate for a lot of the children than the children are grown up enough to understand, that it actually rains after a stretch of fair weather and lower DPs.  haha

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... it's probably more fortunate for a lot of the children than the children are grown up enough to understand, that it actually rains after a stretch of fair weather and lower DPs.  haha

I needed today. Allergies were killing me. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I needed today. Allergies were killing me. 

yeah I've getting some some of that too.  Open a window, breeze rolls in, cough cough - the response is that quick.

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51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right right ... now all we have to do is actually get it to be warm - or at least keep things that way long enough to not be gipped

I guess “warm” is a bit subjective… just thinking mainly from a heating to cooling stand point, the page is flipping.

Though I guess one could argue 58/56 rains hasn’t changed much since winter too.

But the days of like 43F rains seem gone… now when it rains the dews are up near 55F.

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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this system is actually rather unusual. 

there's almost no support above low levels for it's mechanical existence.  the strongest winds are associated with the 850mb parked just S of LI, with an easterly anomaly tube running straight over S zones... meanwhile, the velocities get progressively weaker as you go to the 700 then 500 ...etc.  In fact, 5 to 10 kts at 500 mb.

It's odd that this thing is so basement loaded like that, while still being a cold core system associated with the westerlies.  Where's the mid and upper level divergence/q-g forcing..? etc..

 

Agreed, that's why I wasn't so high on this a few days ago. It was difficult to find overwhelming support with the NAM sort of alone. I suppose you could throw the long-range HRRR in there but I don't really count that since there aren't many products available on the HRRR to provide enough insight. 

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16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed, that's why I wasn't so high on this a few days ago. It was difficult to find overwhelming support with the NAM sort of alone. I suppose you could throw the long-range HRRR in there but I don't really count that since there aren't many products available on the HRRR to provide enough insight. 

It kinda 'suggests' that the GFS, with its apparent hypersensitivity in creating/emerging all these gnats and rogue perforations that undermine ridging ... yeah, it's probably too sensitive, but the physics  'sensing' this sort of oddities - this is one of those perforations. 

It's not completely useless in that sense.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It kinda 'suggests' that the GFS, with its apparent hypersensitivity in creating/emerging all these gnats and rogue perforations that undermine ridging ... yeah, it's probably too sensitive, but the physics  'sensing' this sort of oddities - this is one of those perforations. 

It's not completely useless in that sense.

I'm trying to remember back a few days ago, but the GFS may have been onto the idea, just not as aggressive as the NAM. IIRC, the NAM was the more aggressive with the development of llvl circulations and were further north with them. The GFS was a bit weaker and south (which I think was similar to the Euro). 

You have to wonder if even 15-20 years ago would an event have performed as such, with the atmosphere holding so much more moisture now and all...these type of setups may be bound to produce more rain. We're looking at PWAT anomalies which are like +1.5SD right now. 

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

High End Rain Gauge Reports 4" or more: 
625 AM: Exeter, RI - Yawgoo Valley Park: 4.29"
600 AM: Westerly, RI - Castle Meadow Drive: 4.10"
600 AM: Westerly, RI - Comanche Court: 4.14"

6 inches out on block island.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm trying to remember back a few days ago, but the GFS may have been onto the idea, just not as aggressive as the NAM. IIRC, the NAM was the more aggressive with the development of llvl circulations and were further north with them. The GFS was a bit weaker and south (which I think was similar to the Euro). 

You have to wonder if even 15-20 years ago would an event have performed as such, with the atmosphere holding so much more moisture now and all...these type of setups may be bound to produce more rain. We're looking at PWAT anomalies which are like +1.5SD right now. 

Oh no way.  I grew up meteorologically in the 1990s, when the models were amazing compared to the 1980s...

By present era standards?  the 1990s are neolithic. 

We were taught in advancing dynamics ....back when the dinosaurs roamed ... that there is a 'predictive horizon' to this modeling tech. It's basically just where the statistical results fall below significance to the purpose. It was, at the time... still beyond the technology of the 1990s, which really couldn't see very well enough to matter beyond 5 or 6 days ( although there were rare times when extraordinary events would show up at D10 and stick ).  By today's standards, that horizon has been pushed out D8 or 9 ('m not sure what these horizon values are in use-case; I'm just using these numbers as examples).   These D8 .. 9 are somewhat more reliability when combining huge advancements of computing speeds, increased input data density, with other key metrics - to mention also experience.  You can increase the odds of success in that range by some 20 or 30%  - where in 1995 D7 had 5% ... now has a 25% ..etc

There is however a kind of 'absolute predictive horizon,' a temporal boundary whence the inevitable collection of random permutations aggregates too much reciprocating influence, and the system's coherency gets irrecoverably effected.   It's an unintended consequence of all complex systems in nature - systems are ultimately not allowed by nature to remain in stasis. There is always drift - just a matter of how much so, and when...

I mean, where do we think cancer comes from ?  You know, it's an arresting momentum to be informed by ones doctor, 'Did you know that all human males WILL end up with prostate cancer, period.  It's just a matter of whether they out live the inevitability.' 

This is really true for all cancers - more generic to say ... true for all complex systems to flounder. In the context of cancer, genetic mutation from billions of RNA sequencing and re-combinatory mechanics.  It's a matter of time.  Chaos as a product of time and opportunity cannot be avoided. 

In weather modeling, it's two process of spontaneous emergence: the models have to deal with their own, yet the atmosphere they model is also emergent. Those emergence' are mutually exclusive. That widens the gap further. 

Ultimately it doesn't matter how dense the input grid and the speed that is available in order to crunch all that data - emergence of randomness in time is a factor that will always corrupt an outlook.  We're probably still not quite there even in 2024.  But we are more than a hair better than we were in 1994.

We ultimately can't sample every quantum state of every quantum point, simultaneously, with exacting precision - that is intrinsically impossible, as Heisenberg ..et al showed us both mathematically, and empirically that is demonstrated to be the case.  You know, the more precise the measurement, you start gaining uncertainty - it's not altogether very intuitive for most.  But really, all of nature and reality itself is a result of probabilities.

Imagine where we'll be when AI ( and there's a new coining expression called Super AI - think next gen(s) ) is sistered to practicum quantum computing cores?   I think the absolute horizon is "probably" found there.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

This is a perfect rain here. Not enough to wash away the stuff I put down, but a decent drink and washes pollen away. 

 

Looks like a stein pattern after today.

Yes. Very nice for the new evergreens and shrubs in the front beds too…

We’ll fight stein when its time but please no summer precip like 2023. 

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Sky's lightened some here...   looks like dim sun is cleaving through the easterly anomaly across southern NH just to my N.

Probably that opens up as the initiation of this thing breaking down.  It'll take the day down near the Pike and S.. but maybe some improvements along Rt 2 and N during the afternoon

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh no way.  I grew up meteorologically in the 1990s, when the models were amazing compared to the 1980s...

By present era standards?  the 1990s are neolithic. 

We were taught in advancing dynamics ....back when the dinosaurs roamed ... that there is a 'predictive horizon' to this modeling tech. It's basically just where the statistical results fall below significance to the purpose. It was, at the time... still beyond the technology of the 1990s, which really couldn't see very well enough to matter beyond 5 or 6 days ( although there were rare times when extraordinary events would show up at D10 and stick ).  By today's standards, that horizon has been pushed out D8 or 9 ('m not sure what these horizon values are in use-case; I'm just using these numbers as examples).   These D8 .. 9 are somewhat more reliability when combining huge advancements of computing speeds, increased input data density, with other key metrics - to mention also experience.  You can increase the odds of success in that range by some 20 or 30%  - where in 1995 D7 had 5% ... now has a 25% ..etc

There is however a kind of 'absolute predictive horizon,' a temporal boundary whence the inevitable collection of random permutations aggregates too much reciprocating influence, and the system's coherency gets irrecoverably effected.   It's an unintended consequence of all complex systems in nature - systems are ultimately not allowed by nature to remain in stasis. There is always drift - just a matter of how much so, and when...

I mean, where do we think cancer comes from ?  You know, it's an arresting momentum to be informed by ones doctor, 'Did you know that all human males WILL end up with prostate cancer, period.  It's just a matter of whether they out live the inevitability.' 

This is really true for all cancers - more generic to say ... true for all complex systems to flounder. In the context of cancer, genetic mutation from billions of RNA sequencing and re-combinatory mechanics.  It's a matter of time.  Chaos as a product of time and opportunity cannot be avoided. 

In weather modeling, it's two process of spontaneous emergence: the models have to deal with their own, yet the atmosphere they model is also emergent. Those emergence' are mutually exclusive. That widens the gap further. 

Ultimately it doesn't matter how dense the input grid and the speed that is available in order to crunch all that data - emergence of randomness in time is a factor that will always corrupt an outlook.  We're probably still not quite there even in 2024.  But we are more than a hair better than we were in 1994.

We ultimately can't sample every quantum state of every quantum point, simultaneously, with exacting precision - that is intrinsically impossible, as Heisenberg ..et al showed us both mathematically, and empirically that is demonstrated to be the case.  You know, the more precise the measurement, you start gaining uncertainty - it's not altogether very intuitive for most.  But really, all of nature and reality itself is a result of probabilities.

Imagine where we'll be when AI ( and there's a new coining expression called Super AI - think next gen(s) ) is sistered to practicum quantum computing cores?   I think the absolute horizon is "probably" found there.

I am not so sure on the AI aspect. Do I think AI has value and will provide great value moving forward? I believe this, however, I think AI is leading to more harm than good in the forecasting business right now and I think that ultimately, AI is going to be the downfall society. Everyone is so fixated in wanting computer and robots to basically operate our lives that eventually nobody is going to know how to do anything - there will be no such thing as having fundamental skills anymore.

With this google AI modeling crap, the article that was floating around on that, it essentially stated the model had zero clue how it was deriving it's output. Too make it simple, it knows 10 x 10 = 100, but it doesn't know why that is. The only great part of that model (IMO) was the fact that it processed data substantially faster, however, it did not use physics or calculus (if I understood correctly). 

The premise of AI from my gathering anyways is it just finds patterns and understands patterns and goes from there. But at least with weather, pattern recognition is only a very small piece of the puzzle - too small to make definitive calculations and "forecasts" just because some robotic, computer mind, ciphered through 500,000 different patterns and "recognized" one as a match. 

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