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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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Scalp fest has begun. PL, 31° F. There was a coating of snow last night during the evening from the WAA aloft once the column cooled enough to support RA to SN. 

Thinking 6-10" of sleet and snow here by Friday AM. Of course the wildcard is how quickly does that warm nose aloft collapse and we go from PL to SN. If I'm SN by 06z tomorrow, I could see 12"+. Mid level fronto tomorrow AM is also another wildcard.

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4 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

lol

50+mph from the west or north = grid fine

14mph from the east = total grid collapse

 

Capture.PNG

Kidding aside. I passed about a dozen Holland Power Services utility trucks going south on 93 this morning. Looks like NH utilities have called in reinforcements already. 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

LOL at the entire GYX CWA having 90% chance of 12" in 24 hrs from 00z Thu to 00z Fri.

I feel like the last two years the output has been over the top. Maybe it highlights the hot spots.

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One thing I keep seeing on Bufkit forecast soundings is that the first 10-12 or so inches have deep saturation through the DGZ, but the next 6-10 the DGZ dries out. I would be pretty wary of that additional snow unless that profile changes significantly on these 12z runs.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I feel like the last two years the output has been over the top. Maybe it highlights the hot spots.

That's what we've found for the QPF side of the HREF. Picks out the max values well, but the areal extent is usually too large.

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

One thing I keep seeing on Bufkit forecast soundings is that the first 10-12 or so inches have deep saturation through the DGZ, but the next 6-10 the DGZ dries out. I would be pretty wary of that additional snow unless that profile changes significantly on these 12z runs.

QPF is always overdone when the mid level center is weakening and/or tracking west. I learned that in the early March 2009 system....clown maps kept trying to lay down like 18" and it ended up being like half of that.

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