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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Chris has received alot of weenies this past winter but he did a great job when everyone including myself was hard on him for being a warnista.

Same can be said for Allsnow. I think frustrations are setting in for many snow enthusiasts. 

 

5 years ago he was on the opposite train and honking up the big snow patterns we were in. When the pattern supports it he’ll call that out, when clearly it doesn’t like now he calls that out. 

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2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

it wasn't obvious but shows it has been showing this for several days now.........and a real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip likes how the model is handling this setup.....

You're getting really close...

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8 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Absolutely no reason for all this bickering over a noreaster happening in April :lol:

Happy Easter!

You new here?  We bicker over everything.   NE forum is worse with temp and humidity bickering

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An interesting piece in why the CMC and GFS are so different...

gem_z500_vort_us_16.thumb.png.9e7111ab69f4fb2a485cfc62f7563aa8.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_15.thumb.png.7f302b3ef7d4d80999227f4af75c3f37.png

 

Note the distinct lobe over Maine that exists on the CMC (and ironically the also Srn RGEM). 

This piece gets absorbed on the GFS and stays in tact on the CMC. Keeping that piece intact flattens the WAR a bit and consequential the block is allowed to act upon the primary driving it to a transfer quicker than the GFS which has a stronger WAR.

gem_z500_vort_atl_15.thumb.png.0d556e58fd82e6c7dc96f6ae6aab6c40.png

gfs_z500_vort_atl_14.thumb.png.a03d27c9b072c03a0321922446250795.png

It's an interesting battle to watch as the model runs keep coming in. Its an anomalous blocking episode vs the pattern of a stronger WAR. I'd wager somewhere in between at this juncture. That's because even though yes the ensembles are smoothing this piece a bit by nature, it's noteworthy that the GEPS themselves aren't nearly as pronounced with that lobe of energy.

gem-ens_z500_vort_atl_15.thumb.png.748b5ffbc2338bdb1f3296e03430714f.png

In that regard the GEPS and GEFS handle the Wrn Atlantic situation quite similarly so one must then reasonably come in with a surface prediction somewhere in between.

gfs-ens_z500aNorm_atl_14.thumb.png.1fbc6fa60fc8e94474eaa3595226115a.pnggem-ens_z500aNorm_atl_15.thumb.png.5626c837fd5a628f1bf603c1dad3ab56.png

 

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0z guidance coming in stronger with the primary now which is cutting to Chicago instead of Buffalo with the stronger Southeast ridge forcing the phasing further west. So this could set a new record for one of our longest and slowest spring cutoffs. Models still have showers and clouds into Saturday with the cutoff low. 

DBB2F9B6-9EA8-4430-95E4-F981D90F975D.thumb.png.e4c5bcd9d36463d4dc9cb0b82a8adb9e.png

 

8512EA1E-98B3-48DD-A86A-FA11E9EA2CFC.thumb.png.7b0a435db71109ddb7329050bc8a037d.png

New run stronger Southeast ridge linking up with -NAO forcing phase and primary low  further west

8385B211-FBD3-4CBE-8F4E-30C7DA810B3F.thumb.png.188e4e92a812993191e72acfa54cb0cd.png

Old run weaker Southeast ridge


317A81C5-212E-49E3-A4D2-933537AC58DF.thumb.png.c118386f67fa128e76a44aa9470db2da.png


Even older run with a more suppressed Southeast ridge


3700EDA4-BA4C-49F8-A598-CC58015B80E8.thumb.png.5ac968faf2a5776c747f9170cb872e50.png

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31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models have a strong secondary inland now that's trying to mix a strong LLJ down.

But inversion would make it tough to get strong winds

It’s going to be 3-4 days of misery, whether it’s a little windier or not. That’s all this block-whether it should be called that or not anymore with them regularly linking with the SE ridge now-is good for. 

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3 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Sometimes blending works, but is more of a cop out in my opinion.  A real forecaster must utilize instincts based on experience...

I disagree based on recent model performances. Back on the day...absolutely

But if we're going the Gung ho route then sure you can do it without much model guidance to begin with. If you want a smarter look at what the models are thinking then blending works.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

0z guidance coming in stronger with the primary now which is cutting to Chicago instead of Buffalo with the stronger Southeast ridge forcing the phasing further west. So this could set a new record for one of our longest and slowest spring cutoffs. Models still have showers and clouds into Saturday with the cutoff low. 

DBB2F9B6-9EA8-4430-95E4-F981D90F975D.thumb.png.e4c5bcd9d36463d4dc9cb0b82a8adb9e.png

 

8512EA1E-98B3-48DD-A86A-FA11E9EA2CFC.thumb.png.7b0a435db71109ddb7329050bc8a037d.png

New run stronger Southeast ridge linking up with -NAO forcing phase and primary low  further west

8385B211-FBD3-4CBE-8F4E-30C7DA810B3F.thumb.png.188e4e92a812993191e72acfa54cb0cd.png

Old run weaker Southeast ridge


317A81C5-212E-49E3-A4D2-933537AC58DF.thumb.png.c118386f67fa128e76a44aa9470db2da.png


Even older run with a more suppressed Southeast ridge


3700EDA4-BA4C-49F8-A598-CC58015B80E8.thumb.png.5ac968faf2a5776c747f9170cb872e50.png

This wouldn’t have been a snowstorm in the metro area in mid-January let alone April. All rain event start to finish….

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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This wouldn’t have been a snowstorm in the metro area in mid-January let alone April. All rain event start to finish….

yeah even if there was cold it would quickly be scoured out with that track

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

0z guidance coming in stronger with the primary now which is cutting to Chicago instead of Buffalo with the stronger Southeast ridge forcing the phasing further west. So this could set a new record for one of our longest and slowest spring cutoffs. Models still have showers and clouds into Saturday with the cutoff low. 

DBB2F9B6-9EA8-4430-95E4-F981D90F975D.thumb.png.e4c5bcd9d36463d4dc9cb0b82a8adb9e.png

 

8512EA1E-98B3-48DD-A86A-FA11E9EA2CFC.thumb.png.7b0a435db71109ddb7329050bc8a037d.png

New run stronger Southeast ridge linking up with -NAO forcing phase and primary low  further west

8385B211-FBD3-4CBE-8F4E-30C7DA810B3F.thumb.png.188e4e92a812993191e72acfa54cb0cd.png

Old run weaker Southeast ridge


317A81C5-212E-49E3-A4D2-933537AC58DF.thumb.png.c118386f67fa128e76a44aa9470db2da.png


Even older run with a more suppressed Southeast ridge


3700EDA4-BA4C-49F8-A598-CC58015B80E8.thumb.png.5ac968faf2a5776c747f9170cb872e50.png

Persistent troughing in the SW near Baja has been a big thorn in the side of Ern snowlovers this winter.

Anytime you have that feature there you should expect a more potent SE ridge. The case is no different with this storm.

Ill also mention it's worth noting that since the EPO regime of years ago...another problem has been consistent energy coming into the PAC NW/swrn Canada which has consistently allowed the PNA ridge to rollover almost trapping the Baja trough underneath.

 

What it boils down to is that I've always been a believer of PAC over ATL. If your PAC is crap the ATL will respond in kind despite an anomalous NAO episode. 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models have a strong secondary inland now that's trying to mix a strong LLJ down.

But inversion would make it tough to get strong winds

Big inversion being shown in the Skew Ts.

 

You'll see that reflected in the 10m Wind products which are not thrilled at all. Though once again there is potential for stronger CAA winds which usually wind up overperforming.

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14 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Persistent troughing in the SW near Baja has been a big thorn in the side of Ern snowlovers this winter.

Anytime you have that feature there you should expect a more potent SE ridge. The case is no different with this storm.

Ill also mention it's worth noting that since the EPO regime of years ago...another problem has been consistent energy coming into the PAC NW/swrn Canada which has consistently allowed the PNA ridge to rollover almost trapping the Baja trough underneath.

 

What it boils down to is that I've always been a believer of PAC over ATL. If your PAC is crap the ATL will respond in kind despite an anomalous NAO episode. 

100% agreed. Until we see pac improvements it will be a struggle for eastern snow enthusiasts. We have witnessed so many of these strong blocks the past few years produce nothing because of a awful pacific configuration 
 

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6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So glad I don’t live in New England. 3” of sleet in April? No thanks!

At this point agreed-don't want any of that crap.   I'm thinking models are way overdone there anyway....

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

0z guidance coming in stronger with the primary now which is cutting to Chicago instead of Buffalo with the stronger Southeast ridge forcing the phasing further west. So this could set a new record for one of our longest and slowest spring cutoffs. Models still have showers and clouds into Saturday with the cutoff low. 

DBB2F9B6-9EA8-4430-95E4-F981D90F975D.thumb.png.e4c5bcd9d36463d4dc9cb0b82a8adb9e.png

 

8512EA1E-98B3-48DD-A86A-FA11E9EA2CFC.thumb.png.7b0a435db71109ddb7329050bc8a037d.png

New run stronger Southeast ridge linking up with -NAO forcing phase and primary low  further west

8385B211-FBD3-4CBE-8F4E-30C7DA810B3F.thumb.png.188e4e92a812993191e72acfa54cb0cd.png

Old run weaker Southeast ridge


317A81C5-212E-49E3-A4D2-933537AC58DF.thumb.png.c118386f67fa128e76a44aa9470db2da.png


Even older run with a more suppressed Southeast ridge


3700EDA4-BA4C-49F8-A598-CC58015B80E8.thumb.png.5ac968faf2a5776c747f9170cb872e50.png

why don't we ever get a cutoff with 3 days of snow? In my life, I've never seen it-- only 3 days of rain (like December 1992).

 

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https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/?m=cmceens&p=cloudcover_tle_4-mean&r=us_state_ny

 

I posted the Canadian ensemble model for cloud cover because Pivotal says it's the best we have.

I just have a hard time believing there will only be 5-10% of cloud cover for the eclipse, that's weird for early April.

 

The Canadian ensemble (CMCE) runs twice daily, with new maps typically available by 4:00 AM and PM EDT (1:00 PDT). Its forecasts for cloud cover are the most nuanced and realistic available on this page.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

At this point agreed-don't want any of that crap.   I'm thinking models are way overdone there anyway....

Where is the low level cold drain to make that a realistic outcome? Plus it’s the nam showing this outside 48 hours 

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