Christmas Storm VII

[ghost]

I think... going outisde.. seeing small flurries mix in already... in Lexington, SC... we are going to be okay man. I know for a fact this thing's pressure is lower than initialized by the new GFS just now and the RUC.

I keep looking here in West Columbia, nothing mixing yet. Hoping for something so the kids will be happy in the morning. We left my parents in the upstate earlier, left snow behind. They wanted to stay.

[Brick Tamland]

I know WRAL was calling for this at 6:00. And some places in northern Wake are already reporting a couple inches according to WRAL.

[NCWeSU]

I didn't think we'd get anything yet.... Not sure why RAH has lowered totals. Precip seems to be blossoming nicely along the coast and should move up this way, plus it looks like we're in a good spot in regards to the deformation band.

Maybe only concern I'd have right now is the convection firing up along the warm front out in the Atlantic. I'm not sure what effect that will have if any.

[ze501]

I think the reason our local mets refuse to believe what the models show is because they know the odds are on their side.. They don't even have to look at a model period..

999/1000 times we get screwd out of our winter weather somehow.. All the local mets have to say is snow 1-2 inches and maybe 2-4 and they are golden.. They probly aready have

their maps made from 20 years ago and still use the same ones.. lol

[Triad SKYWARN]

RAH seems to be pulling the plug on any significant impacts for the Triad from the developing coastal system based on the latest WSW updates.

[jshetley]

Looking really good now for the eastern halves of NC and SC if it's cold enough. A ton of precip in southern SC and SE GA heading to the NNE. The radar certainly looks better for me back here in the upstate now and it finally switched to snow here around 8. Have about a quarter inch on the ground now with the temp just above freezing.

[CaryWx]

RAH has some educated/experienced mets. They know what they're seeing....and it's less, not more. That hole in the radar between CLT and FLO, that's a site down? Really??

[Shawn]

I haven't seen any mixing yet, either. I've looked outdoors a couple of times, as well. I'm located in Blythewood.

I should note I'm next to Lake Murray in SC, and in a situation like this.. that's a pretty good difference in distance. It's 37.9F here right now here and the thickness levels are crashing south eastward fast!

[magpiemaniac]

I know WRAL was calling for this at 6:00. And some places in northern Wake are already reporting a couple inches according to WRAL.

I dislike it when TV mets throw in the projected accumulation totals for counties outside their viewing area. Just leave it blank and call it "The Nether Regions" or something. That map will underestimate the accumulation to the west of Raleigh.

[kvegas-wx]

Actually, I wouldn't say the accumulating snow is over for you just yet. Nam/gfs, and ruc have all indicated a little back building toward morning and scattered to widespread snow showers/light snow for a good part of the day tomorrow for northeast ga and into the south carolina. Not sure how much will actually fall but with such cold mid level temps and plenty of humidity even above 700mb, as well as the big upper low moving through, it stands to reason that some additional light accumulations at the least is possible. It really wouldn't take much "liquid" to make for some light accumulations due to how cold it will be. And it can't be ruled out that some areas couldn't pick up a little more.

I agree with the others, the radar is impressive with our storm. If only this thing had bombed about 12 hours earlier. Of course I have asked that a lot of times when the carolinas have gotten creamed by these coastal storms.

I know if i was in eastern nc, I would be excited as hell looking at that radar and all those returns coming at me.

I hear ya Lookout, but I think we may have some temp issues along the intercoastal, sounds and OBX. I'll wait and see what the heavy precip can do. I've seen a 12 degree drop already today between Kvegas and Burlington. Left heavy snow and 32 and 2pm and drove to dry roads 44 degrees and a high cloud deck 30 miles later in burlington. those heavy bands make all the difference.......but I'm still nervous.

[WidreMann]

RAH has some educated/experienced mets. They know what they're seeing....and it's less, not more. That hole in the radar between CLT and FLO, that's a site down? Really??

Experienced in busting, maybe. They've changed the totals two or three times today. They were wrong about the western piedmont. They've been majorly wrong in the past. The reason? It's nearly impossible to predict snow down here due to the fact that we are always on the boundary of snow and not snow and to get a storm to come together that produces significant snow is really hard. I'm just watching the (crappy) radar right now and hoping for the best, expecting the worst.

[SnowDeac]

I've been worried about dryslotting all along, and it seems like that's what's going to happen to us in the Triangle. Hope I'm wrong.

[HKY_WX]

tree branches are popping like crazy around here

[RevDodd]

Jeff with the NWS in Raleigh says RDU and points south will likely need to wait for the bombing low to see snow.

[ncskywarn]

Latest Raleigh NWS WSW statement

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

1035 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND CAUSE PRECIPITATION

TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A

STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN

RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND SPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC AS IT MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF THE

CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-261200-

/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-101227T0500Z/

PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-

EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-

RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...

WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...

NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...

WILSON...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...

ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON

1035 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST

SUNDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST

SUNDAY NIGHT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPES: THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS PRIMARILY

SNOW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. AREAS

EXPERIENCING RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL

CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* ACCUMULATION: BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AROUND

THE TRIANGLE. BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM

ROCKY MOUNT NORTH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS...WARRENTON...HENDERSON AND

OXFORD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES. LESSER SNOW

AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AROUND FAYETTEVILLE.

* TIMING: PERIODS OF SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND

THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY

AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS: SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS

THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

* TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT. HIGHS

ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING. LOWS SUNDAY

NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL

MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 1-877-633-6772.

[DopplerWx]

This whole thing has been a cluster**** all week. It is not different now.

Dude what's the deal? I wasn't expecting anything until the low bombed.

[RevDodd]

Link?

NWS Chat out of Raleigh

https://nwschat.weather.gov/my/monitor.php

[Triad SKYWARN]

Jeff with the NWS in Raleigh says RDU and points south will likely need to wait for the bombing low to see snow.

He also said that the Triad was "likely done with the heaiest snow". Perhaps that means the "heaviest" is still on the way!!!

I see we are monitoring the same sources!

[RevDodd]

He also said that the Triad was "likely done with the heaiest snow". Perhaps that means the "heaviest" is still on the way!!!

I see we are monitoring the same sources!

He did indeed. Just figured folks over this way still looking to the skies could get a little sleep now. I guess we won't see an official White Christmas, but I'll take what the morning brings...and the afternoon, hopefully!

I started following NWS chat after a seminar at SPC in Norman. It's been very helpful.

[LovingGulfLows]

I have to say. This has been one weird storm. I would have 40-45 DBZ returns on me based on radars, but I look outside and it's light rain. It is not until late this evening that those 40-45 DBZ bands finlly came true and dropped 2 inches on me in 2 hours. If the reutrns were actually true, I would have had 4-5 inches of snow. Still, I'm satisfied.

[DopplerWx]

00z GFS snowfall via twisterdata for kicks and giggles.

[RevDodd]

Any change in the forecast for Northern North Carolina along I-85 at the VA border? Been hearing whispers around here about folks thinking things may be changing. What kind of totals can we expect in this area?

I'm getting old. I can't hear whispers anymore. What are they saying and we'll see if we can check it out.

[NCWeSU]

I've been worried about dryslotting all along, and it seems like that's what's going to happen to us in the Triangle. Hope I'm wrong.

I think the dry slot we would be worried about is the one in Jacksonville right now, and I don't think that will be a factor for the triangle.

The large majority of precip for the triangle is associated with the coastal low, which is just now starting to get going.

RAH may have some issues with this coastal low, but the triangle wasn't supposed to get much snow if any to this point.

The precip falling now is from the quasi stationary boundary which was supposed to weaken as the energy transferred from the gulf low to the coastal low.

[sctvman]

Pat Prokop (WTOC chief meteorologist)'s thoughts:

Looking at the new computer data just coming in ... still looks like rain during the night becoming mixed with snow after 4 am and possibly changing over to snow before ending around sunrise. Should be cloudy, breezy and cold Sunday with scattered snow flurries. No major accumulation. North of the Savannah Rv, moderate to heavy snow is likely particularly once north of the Charleston region.

[WFDDeac]

11:02pm

5.1"

31.0 F

Snow

Lewisville, NC

[eyewall]

RAH:

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHEARED SOUTHERN STREAM VORT AND

DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

PRECIPITATION RATES/AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS HAVE REALLY LESSEN

OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH THE LOSS OF THIS SATURATION/MOISTURE ALOFT.

HOWEVER...THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL SEE RENEWED LIFT/FORCING

AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z...THIS TIME

IN THE DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW

LIFTING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST A QUARTER TO HALF

INCH OF LIQUID QPF WITH THE NORTHERN SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE

EASTERN HALF OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE FREEZING SURFACE WET-BULB

SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL

AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM US 1 EAST. THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL

BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE COASTAL BOMB...BUT COULD STILL SEE

ANOTHER INCH...MAYBE TWO... AS THE STRONG DPVA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH

SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE ON THE

LIGHT SIDE. -MWS

SUNDAY: THE MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NC

TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS... SO WE EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD... HIGHER

INTENSITY SNOW TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE

MIDDAY HOURS... LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN

INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES

FROM THE TRIANGLE EAST BEFORE THE SNOW CHANGES OVER THE FLURRIES.

WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES

FOR MOST OF THE DAY AREAWIDE... HOWEVER... AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL

LOW PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A

PROJECTED FRESH SNOWPACK OVER THE REGION WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO

THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. BLUSTERY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND

THE DEPARTING CYCLONE. -MWS-- End Changed Discussion --

[RevDodd]

Welp, getting some sleep...We'll see what the pre-dawn brings. Best of luck!

[Triad SKYWARN]

From the RAH AFD:

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHEARED SOUTHERN STREAM VORT AND

DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

And there you have it sports fans!

[wakeforest22890]

I'd bet a decent amount Raleigh ends up with 3-5 inches almost all across the city.

[CaryWx]

I'm going to take back my bummer talk for the Triangle temporarily as this precip rolling up north/northwest from about Florence down to Augusta over to Charleston up to Wilmington looks serious. It's rain down there, but it's moving this way.