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Christmas Storm VII

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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crossthread

crossthread

Posted
Posted

I'm hopeing that the Mods allow a "Pinned* Topic for some, (such as I), of NOT so knowledgeable people, ie:**WEATHER WEENIES** in Weather but, LOVE it so too speak....

and need links to learn ans studay as NOY to BUG the METS about IMBY posts?:whistle:

I'll start with a couple..

Ocean weather INC.

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/

Of course We cannot for get these 2 links...

24.73n 86.44west

BASIC Weather terms, (someone posted a Awsome link that included graphics) please repost!

http://www.carterlake.org/wx9.php

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/glossary/

NAtional Weather Service Glossary

......WINTER WEATHER TERMS AND DEFINITIONS

http://www.wrh.noaa....ge/winterms.php

Bufkit data Link/Page..

Bufkit Data http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/bufkit/

Twisterdata page.... http://www.twisterdata.com/

Weather and Climate Data

http://wxmaps.org/

A few links to get this started...... Which Hopfully soon as Our site grows, We cab have this *Pinned* thread to refer too....

Of course WE cannot forget about Allans Page.....!

Allan's Model and Weather Data Page

http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html

Please! feel free to contruibute, and Make SE Mid-Alantic the place for ALL your weather/Data sources needs.....

Mods, If I'm outta line, Let me know...

TIA in advance!

Since WE ARE in Storm Mode.......

My Current conditions and Obs are......

Moderate RAIN....

Temps have fallen further from 43.0F, now down to 38.2 in another 30 minutes.....

My current dew is39.0

Winds have picked up quite a bit now.... 14.00 MPH from the NNE

Humidity @ 100%

Pressue 29/74 and FALLING...

I just noticed this message posted on the Radar page?

***Message Date: Dec 25 2010 21:20:10 KLTX HAS BEEN CHANGED FROM DEFAULT CONVECTIVE TO MARSHALL PALMER STRATIFORM Z-R RELATIONSHIP. ***

Local KLIM AFD updated Valid 12:35AM Jan 26

Synopsis...

a developing winter storm will bring rain tonight...then change over

to snow across the eastern Carolinas late tonight into Sunday

morning. Moderate accumulations of snow are possible...along with

dangerous travel conditions through Monday morning. A warming trend

is expected for the middle and end of the week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...

as of 8 PM Saturday...low pressure is now across the extreme

northeast Gulf of Mexico...nearing the Florida coast with 3 hourly

pressure falls currently increasing off the southeast coast of the

United States. Low pressure is expected to intensify significantly

off the southeast coast through tonight given the favorable

pre-conditioning. The regional radar mosaic and surface observations

indicate -ra is occurring just west of the Pee Dee zones and -sn

farther upstream. Meanwhile the initial weak targets falling across

the Pee Dee and Lumberton areas are virga...with some sprinkles a

good bet.

Once -ra begins to fall within the hour or two across the western

zones expect to see temperatures lowering a category or two as a

result of evaporative cooling. Meanwhile increasing low-level cold

air advection overnight into Sunday morning will finally allow the

changeover to snow to occur. Currently think the changeover is on

target to occur across the far inland zones around midnight...and at

the coast around daybreak. Since the 00z models are not in

yet...will not be making any significant changes with the 9 PM

issuance. Instead...will make any adjustments based on radar and

trends in the surface observations.

&&

Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/...

as of 3 PM Saturday...rapidly deepening low pressure should pass

about 125 miles east of Cape Fear early Sunday morning on its way up

the middle-Atlantic and New England coast over the next couple of days.

This track is significantly closer to shore than climatology

suggests for significant snow in the eastern Carolinas...but given

the below normal heights and temperatures both ahead of and

especially behind the storm...snow should still be the result. The

12z model suite finally has excellent internal agreement within the

various members and also with the 00z models from last night.

Confidence is much higher than yesterday at this time...although

there are still some questions regarding the timing of the

changeover from rain to snow along the coast and its impact on

ultimate snowfall accumulations.

At daybreak Sunday...moderate snow should be ongoing across all the

area except within ~20 miles of the coast where rain will still be

falling. :yikes:As colder air slams in during the morning precipitation

should go to all snow down to the beaches. Temperatures here at the

surface will be marginal for significant accumulations unless

snow rates are high. And this is actually expected...especially

after reviewing the 12z NAM that shows mesoscale banding of

moderate to perhaps heavy snow Sunday morning within a region of

middle-level frontogenesis and enhanced dendritic Crystal growth.

This feature moves from the Pee Dee region around daybreak to near

Wilmington by noon...then out to the northeast by 1-2 PM. Our

snowfall forecasts have increased as a result...with storm totals

now in the 3-4 inch range from Darlington to Dillon...Lumberton

and Elizabethtown. Locations from Florence...to Marion...

Whiteville...Wilmington and Burgaw should see around 2 inches. One

to two inches are forecast across Kingstree...Conway...and the

Brunswick County beaches...with around an inch from Georgetown to

the Myrtle Beach area.

As synoptic and mesoscale ascent pushes out to the north and east

Sunday afternoon snow should taper down to flurries...which may last

into Sunday evening as wrap around low cloud tops chill down to

around -12c...temperatures suitable for efficient snow Crystal

growth. Clouds should diminish from west to east after midnight with

mostly clear skies expected by daybreak Monday.

Monday and Monday night will be cold...aided in part by the snow

cover that may partially survive the day's sunshine. Highs are only

forecast to reach the upper 30s in most spots...a little warmer near

the Santee river and perhaps a little cooler across the interior

southeast NC counties where more substantial snowpack may exist.

Lows Monday night will plunge to 20-25...coolest across any

remaining snow pack and warmest near the SC beaches.

&&

My Step-Daughter came back from Leland (accross the bridge, cape fear river) and reported a MIX of sn & Rain!!!:guitar:

(Keep the Monkey MoJo going!)

post-2767-0-44189600-1293344669.jpg

post-2767-0-77346400-1293345942.gif

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

At this rate it may just get there, if not pretty darn close. Are the thicknesses crashing again?

It's changing back over. This radar trend is freaking me out though. CAE looks to be okay for a little while, but Lexington county/Saluda seems the precip is drying out just as it's turning to all snow here.

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

Posted
Posted

It's changing back over. This radar trend is freaking me out though. CAE looks to be okay for a little while, but Lexington county/Saluda seems the precip is drying out just as it's turning to all snow here.

Man. Looks like youll be right on the edge cutting it close as it pivots. I think you should be fine though, itll be such a sharp cutoff.

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rwiwx

rwiwx

Posted
Posted

I'm wondering if this thing can throw enough heavy moisture into the Triangle/points west. I specifically remember two storms in the past 10 years where Wilson, Rocky Mount, etc. were hammered, while RDU basically was left out to dry.

I remember the Dec 3 2000 event that happened, leaving Raleigh hung out to dry with a trace, while While Wilson got 9". Mike Siedel was hanging out at Crabtree Valley while 45 miles east folks were getting hammered. I really don't see that happening with this event. Everybody shares with at least 4" Raleigh east + and to the east a bit more, but not quite that bust. - Sn in Wilson right now , ground starting to cover.

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snowblzchance in CLT

snowblzchance in CLT

Posted
Posted

Will that send the moisture more N instead of NE?

Hey - it does look like it wants to pivot some of those green echoes due north towards our neck of the woods. :thumbsup: Maybe I should stick around a little longer. If we can get into a little training we might pick up a couple of quick inches tonight and get those surface temps to drop below freezing.

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CoolBreeze

CoolBreeze

Posted
Posted

Radar is filling in - Central NC. Snow has picked up more here in the Triad - now light snow, some medium-sized flakes mixing now. NWS now says 1-2 more inches for the Triad. Local News 14 says 2-4 more inches by 9am...very surprising. I hope the trees can handle this; they are leaning over a great deal right now !

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wakeforest22890

wakeforest22890

Posted
Posted

Radar is filling in - Central NC. Snow has picked up more here in the Triad - now light snow, some medium-sized flakes mixing now. NWS now says 1-2 more inches for the Triad. Local News 14 says 2-4 more inches by 9am...very surprising. I hope the trees can handle this; they are leaning over a great deal right now !

Was just thinking this about the trees as I turn in for the night. Medium-sized flakes coming down at a pretty good clip still in the NW part of Winston. The trees are very heavily weighted down in my front yard. Around 5.5-6" on my back deck (totals should be a little more than that as it snowed pretty heavily between 2-3" earlier and it took a good 3 hours to get from the 2 to 3" mark).

Excited to see what it's like when I wake up tomorrow.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Well, I think CAE will be okay. The moisture isn't exactly leaving Lexington yet and well.. it's snowing pretty hard.. and covering my car in like.. 2 minutes. Yeah.. CAE and the coast should definitely be good here soon!

Infact, I wouldn't doubt that pressure to be below 1000mb right now.

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

Posted
Posted

Well, I think CAE will be okay. The moisture isn't exactly leaving Lexington yet and well.. it's snowing pretty hard.. and covering my car in like.. 2 minutes. Yeah.. CAE and the coast should definitely be good here soon!

Infact, I wouldn't doubt that pressure to be below 1000mb right now.

If not its pretty close im sure. Still rain and 36 here though. I need that moisture to pivot east over me.

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DLI4SCwx

DLI4SCwx

Posted
Posted

Well, I think CAE will be okay. The moisture isn't exactly leaving Lexington yet and well.. it's snowing pretty hard.. and covering my car in like.. 2 minutes. Yeah.. CAE and the coast should definitely be good here soon!

Infact, I wouldn't doubt that pressure to be below 1000mb right now.

Good stuff man! I hope it all comes to fruition and we get some accumulation here.

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