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Wednesday, February 28, 2024 Mild temperatures ahead of a Strong Arctic Cold Front with a Line of Rain and Thunderstorms Associated by Big Bad Wolf howling winds knocking down forests followed by Brief, but chilly Arctic Cold


weatherwiz
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2-6km lapse rates are pretty steep across the region and ahead of the front. That is a good proxy for mixing down wind. 

NY/PA could get hit pretty good with convective wind gusts. Forecast models showing upwards of 500 J of SBCAPE and even upwards of 250 J of MLCAPE under steep lapse rates. Unfortunately, we lose the instability here but lapse rates remain steep. 

We should easily see widespread 40-50 mph gusts later on with some pockets of 55-65 mph...though obviously difficult to verify if that doesn't happen at any stations. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

2-6km lapse rates are pretty steep across the region and ahead of the front. That is a good proxy for mixing down wind. 

NY/PA could get hit pretty good with convective wind gusts. Forecast models showing upwards of 500 J of SBCAPE and even upwards of 250 J of MLCAPE under steep lapse rates. Unfortunately, we lose the instability here but lapse rates remain steep. 

We should easily see widespread 40-50 mph gusts later on with some pockets of 55-65 mph...though obviously difficult to verify if that doesn't happen at any stations. 

We wild 

I3c6rAF.jpeg

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GYX has an hour-by-hour chart of winds for many sites in its CWA, and for our area the strongest winds come with CAA and continue into tomorrow evening.  Only ~40 gusts compared to the 50+ in Dec, but they're from the NW and may pick out some trees partially tipped by the stronger SE winds back then.  Bad winter for the woodlot. 

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm kind of hoping a brief EF-0 tornado touches down in my backyard within the line and sucks up all the dog poop and takes it to the nearby woods. It's like walking through a landmine. Need warm weather so I can clean it. 

Well, there was at least one reported tornado late last night in lower Michigan.  So..........

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Been a while since there was much wind around here, so any dead/weakened branches might come down

you didn't get the wind 3-4 weeks ago? it was pretty windy here, plenty of small branches (and a metric shit ton of pine cones) down around the yard

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I'm still hoping that one day we get another November 1950 screamer. King of all screamers. I cannot even fathom 80 mph sustained from a non-hurricane. Plus the worst of it happened during the evening hours rather than overnight like October 2017, so it was all visible. March 2, 2018 is still king for me personally.

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm kind of hoping a brief EF-0 tornado touches down in my backyard within the line and sucks up all the dog poop and takes it to the nearby woods. It's like walking through a landmine. Need warm weather so I can clean it. 

It was beautiful yesterday and Monday too…you should have cleaned the dog shit then Wiz. C’mon :lol:

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24 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I'm still hoping that one day we get another November 1950 screamer. King of all screamers. I cannot even fathom 80 mph sustained from a non-hurricane. Plus the worst of it happened during the evening hours rather than overnight like October 2017, so it was all visible. March 2, 2018 is still king for me personally.

The 50s seem like the best years for weather, for exciting damage and heat anyway

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4 hours ago, tamarack said:

GYX has an hour-by-hour chart of winds for many sites in its CWA, and for our area the strongest winds come with CAA and continue into tomorrow evening.  Only ~40 gusts compared to the 50+ in Dec, but they're from the NW and may pick out some trees partially tipped by the stronger SE winds back then.  Bad winter for the woodlot. 

CMPCO is all over it.... I'm not expecting much, just some breeze pushing the car around on the way to work.

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The area is inverted with strong low level jet through the
afternoon. Winds have been running weaker than forecast so far
despite the strong winds aloft. Think winds will reach advisory
criteria everywhere with the cold front passage as strong cold
advection and mixing takes place. This is when 45 to 50 mph
gusts are likely around 7pm to around midnight. The low level
winds decrease thereafter as the pressure gradient relaxes.
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