MJO812 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a great cold rain event. It's coming My shovel is still out 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Next week Tuesday on looks torched . 60’s at least for a few days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Next week Tuesday on looks torched . 60’s at least for a few days CPC says what torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Just now, kdxken said: CPC says what torch. 8-14 days? Lol. That’s the period some in here are calling for cold and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 8-14 days? Lol. That’s the period some in here are calling for cold and snow Coldest spring ever. "Euro 12z AI going wild March 18-23 with major eastern storm and one of the coldest opening to spring outbreaks into the east on record." 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1766205589527330861?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 And just like that next week goes in the shitter "Good model agreement on dry weather Mon and Tue, but blustery and chilly NW flow across the region. Not as windy or cold Tue vs Mon. Wed could be the pick of the week with ridge advecting across the area, with highs 55-60 and light winds. Obviously cooler along/near the coast given SSTs in the 40s. Maybe unsettled Thu/Fri with risk for showers, but mild." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 8-14 days? Lol. That’s the period some in here are calling for cold and snow These maps have always been pretty conservative ( IMO ). So what it's showing for us is actually somewhat encouraging for the possible colder weather coming in. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 10 hours ago, MJO812 said: It's too early for that crap Interesting down here in Florida local’s are saying this is mid April wx. I suspect we’re going to roast July/August. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: Interesting down here in Florida local’s are saying this is mid April wx. I suspect we’re going to roast July/August. Definitely with the upcoming LA Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: I'm coming My weenie is still out 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 28 minutes ago, weathafella said: Interesting down here in Florida local’s are saying this is mid April wx. I suspect we’re going to roast July/August. All the LR guys have a super humid summer forecast .. and stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 9 Author Share Posted March 9 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1766205589527330861?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg that looks like something you'd see April 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sled Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 3 hours ago, kdxken said: Coldest spring ever. "Euro 12z AI going wild March 18-23 with major eastern storm and one of the coldest opening to spring outbreaks into the east on record." Is AI going to make forecasts better or worse? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 4 minutes ago, Sled said: Is AI going to make forecasts better or worse? Guess we'll find out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Pretty high likelihood that all you are seeing isnt all that uncommon in any given Euro run …if you were allowed to see it beyond 240 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 18z AI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: that looks like something you'd see April 15th That’s generally what it feels like, mid-April. Snowpack is like it is a couple weeks before closing… not 5 weeks. All we need is some good frozen QPF and normal temperatures and things will last. But can’t keep running back +10 departures. We are +14.1 through the first week of the month. It’s just wild departures continuing since the end of November. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Looks like 8 to 12 inches or more for the mountains Saturday night into Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Just now, qg_omega said: Looks like 8 to 12 inches or more for the mountains Saturday night into Sunday Southeast Adirondacks getting the upslope cooling from forced parcel ascent in the marginal & lowest few thousand vertical feet. Same with eastern VT hills and Spine during the SE flow phase. It’s like the tide coming in on SE flow, then the tide going out on NW flow. Some zones do better on each specific flow/tide, others can hit on both. Thats the forecasting challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Southeast Adirondacks getting the upslope cooling from forced parcel ascent in the marginal & lowest few thousand vertical feet. Same with eastern VT hills and Spine during the SE flow phase. It’s like the tide coming in on SE flow, then the tide going out on NW flow. Some zones do better on each specific flow/tide, others can hit on both. Thats the forecasting challenge. Agreed, Gore will do well on the front and greens will clean up on the back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 41 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s generally what it feels like, mid-April. Snowpack is like it is a couple weeks before closing… not 5 weeks. All we need is some good frozen QPF and normal temperatures and things will last. But can’t keep running back +10 departures. We are +14.1 through the first week of the month. It’s just wild departures continuing since the end of November. Gross but change is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gross but change is coming. Elevation event coming in based on positive slow depth maps. They are the new snow maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Elevation event coming in based on positive slow depth maps. They are the new snow maps. Wow, that's impressive. The pos. depth change maps are usually (caveat, not always!) fairly conservative too. Still - way more applicable in this situation/evolution than the 10 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 15 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Wow, that's impressive. The pos. depth change maps are usually (caveat, not always!) fairly conservative too. Still - way more applicable in this situation/evolution than the 10 to 1. This is a 1,500-2,000ft event for big totals. The QPF is there. If this winter had even been +2 to +4 (instead of +8 to +10), it might have been an incredibly snowy winter up north. There have been so many events that have been a couple degrees away from big numbers. 00z GFS if only we had a cold airmass and 10:1 ratios to the valley floors. Disappointing winter. This is what could have been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This is a 1,500-2,000ft event for big totals. The QPF is there. If this winter had even been +2 to +4 (instead of +8 to +10), it might have been an incredibly snowy winter up north. There have been so many events that have been a couple degrees away from big numbers. 00z GFS if only we had a cold airmass and 10:1 ratios to the valley floors. Disappointing winter. This is what could have been. Most of the snow will be occurring at night so that will help with accumulations. This is probably a more realistic map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 00z HREF mean. Seems like the NWS likes these for snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 58 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Most of the snow will be occurring at night so that will help with accumulations. This is probably a more realistic map. I have a hard time seeing RUT getting a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Took the driveway markers out yesterday, hopefully I didn’t Ginx myself for a late season storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 6 hours ago, mreaves said: I have a hard time seeing RUT getting a foot. Probably some resolution issues there with the gfs. 3k nam shows the elevation differences better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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