40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Let's just agree that the next few months are going to suck more than not. We'll get some beautiful days mixed in which tells us those days on a more consistent basis are approaching but we all know how springs work around here: 1. We could have a two week stretch of widespread 60's/70's within the region mid-month, higher elevations and northern New England will still have some snow threats well through April. We could get a stretch of 70's/80's and they still will. 2. We are going to have some brutal periods of chilly temperatures, stiff northeast breezes, clouds, showers, heavier rain. 3. We'll have some days with wild weather differences within the region. This will be characterized by periods where we get over the top warmth and NNE is dabbing 70's and lower 80's while SNE is shocked in with some marine crap. 4. We'll have days when portions of SNE are into the 60's and 70's while other parts are backdoored and dealing with 40's and low clouds/drizzle. We are about to get a mixture of everything through the next 7-8 weeks. Hopefully the tropics ramp up in June...until then its Fantasy Baseball and yard work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully the tropics ramp up in June...until then its Fantasy Baseball and yard work. Tropics are my least knowledgeable area so I'm not entirely sure what to expect. I mean naturally, if we're progressing towards La Nina you would expect an above-average season. While I don't think the warm waters factors into that aspect, the already well above-average waters are concerning in that should storms develop, they will have alot of fuel available. Then of course we'll have to see the prospects for landfalling storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 8 minutes ago, 512high said: That will be impressive, I'm at my shop ASH, hvy clouds, Davis sitting at 45F.... A little cloudy screw zone down there. We’re going to need a little mixing though. Miller St Park is mid 50s at over 2kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, dendrite said: A little cloudy screw zone down there. We’re going to need a little mixing though. Miller St Park is mid 50s at over 2kft. Yup, screw zone for snow, heavy winds too (ha ha) I do see a few breaks, I can see where I might start to jump the temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Tropics are my least knowledgeable area so I'm not entirely sure what to expect. I mean naturally, if we're progressing towards La Nina you would expect an above-average season. While I don't think the warm waters factors into that aspect, the already well above-average waters are concerning in that should storms develop, they will have alot of fuel available. Then of course we'll have to see the prospects for landfalling storms. Think of it in terms of winter....the warm waters are analagous to well placed surface high pressure....doesn't matter if the upper levels are hostile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, no one expected this warmth....Raindance was closest, but even he was too cool. Bluewave seemed to have the right idea, but he only does 2 week increments, which is probably part of the secret to his sucess. lol I wonder if with our level of technology, modelling, and training/education, if that 2 week amount is the edge of realistic forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 12z NAM coming to Earth re tonight and tomorrow morning.. A little less QPF ( altho, given the southern origin of this disturbance that was the least of my questions - ), and less cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wonder if with our level of technology, modelling, and training/education, if that 2 week amount is the edge of realistic forecasting. Certainly there tends to be an increased interval of confidence at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 12z NAM coming to Earth re tonight and tomorrow morning.. A little less QPF ( altho, given the southern origin of this disturbance that was the least of my questions - ), and less cold air. That's good... it was really juiced earlier. Not shocked at the warmer look Edit: Still a large swath with 2"+ of qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 And add on another 1-2" on the GFS for the weekend. Blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Red Wing blackbirds have made their first appearance. Seems a bit early. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Ha, JMA model ( yesterday's 12z over at Trop TBs) had a fierce winter storm with big snow implied. 'Course with that model's illustrations looking so coarse, combined with being bad - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: Red Wing blackbirds have made their first appearance. Seems a bit early. Never mind, I just looked it up. Early March is when they return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 minutes ago, kdxken said: Red Wing blackbirds have made their first appearance. Seems a bit early. Flying all the way to the Stanley Cup playoffs? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 6 minutes ago, kdxken said: Red Wing blackbirds have made their first appearance. Seems a bit early. You must know that pond with cattails off of exit 19 up here. I saw my first RWBB yesterday perched on one. And for @eekuasepinniWI had my first white throated sparrows last week 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha, JMA model ( yesterday's 12z over at Trop TBs) had a fierce winter storm with big snow implied. 'Course with that model's illustrations looking so coarse, combined with being bad - Hey, maybe we get another Feb 2006 miracle...it nailed that in the face of a resistant consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 12z NAM coming to Earth re tonight and tomorrow morning.. A little less QPF ( altho, given the southern origin of this disturbance that was the least of my questions - ), and less cold air. 3k has 2.75 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Look I expect it to snow here again this season…probably multiple times. We’ll probably pull a couple of days BN this month too. But this is transition season and I’m treating it like we’re 2 weeks ahead of schedule based on how far ahead of climo most of the CONUS and southern Can are. Albedo is way down and the frost line is way north. Possibly even more, About to set the all time record for earliest ice out here at Lake Auburn, 03/23/2010 is the record earliest, I'm betting its gone in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Soaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Some seem to forget Feb 13th to 21st was BN with snow cover. Models advertised it . I think 16th to 23rd BN with a snow event. Why is that getting the doomer replies? There is support for it across multiple models Don’t bother anymore Steve. Most want to go with persistence and CC lol. It may never snow again. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Because I am nerd ...the following appeals to me. Friday will be an interesting ( well, might be, sun depending -) challenge for machine/MOS to get the high temperature right. That looks like glass of powered bust, just add sun- juice. Light NW regional d-slope wind, with nearly unobstructed sun post the morning murk evaporation ... through 850's +2 or 3C. Mm, guessing the 51 at KFIT-KASH in both MAV/MET will be too conserved 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully the tropics ramp up in June...until then its Fantasy Baseball and yard work. High end activity will probably be hard given climo but the last decade suggests we see some pre/early season activity. 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Tropics are my least knowledgeable area so I'm not entirely sure what to expect. I mean naturally, if we're progressing towards La Nina you would expect an above-average season. While I don't think the warm waters factors into that aspect, the already well above-average waters are concerning in that should storms develop, they will have alot of fuel available. Then of course we'll have to see the prospects for landfalling storms. Warm waters are an important factor, though often oversimplified. If the trend continues we’re looking at off the charts warmth in the Atlantic basin—it’s not just absolute SSTs but the extent of warm anomalies and depth across the MDR. It’s historic in its own right. Here are OHC values from two eventual historic seasons—2017, 2020…and today. The AMO configuration looks big time. That can feedback into weaker trades. The Nina is huge obviously for reducing shear across the MDR. We have to watch SAL activity in June/July. Our big seasons tend to have activity at least trying further east during the summer. Obviously let’s get to later in the spring to say it’s all systems go but I think we’re looking at a top ten season at least. The factors suggesting activity heading into the 2024 season are unlike what we’ve seen for recent active years. Grain of salt for these but anything close to this speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 40° and rain has got to be the worst possible iteration of a torch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Turning out to be a nice day in Ashburnham 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 26 minutes ago, mreaves said: 40° and rain has got to be the worst possible iteration of a torch. GWDLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: High end activity will probably be hard given climo but the last decade suggests we see some pre/early season activity. Warm waters are an important factor, though often oversimplified. If the trend continues we’re looking at off the charts warmth in the Atlantic basin—it’s not just absolute SSTs but the extent of warm anomalies and depth across the MDR. It’s historic in its own right. Here are OHC values from two eventual historic seasons—2017, 2020…and today. The AMO configuration looks big time. That can feedback into weaker trades. The Nina is huge obviously for reducing shear across the MDR. We have to watch SAL activity in June/July. Our big seasons tend to have activity at least trying further east during the summer. Obviously let’s get to later in the spring to say it’s all systems go but I think we’re looking at a top ten season at least. The factors suggesting activity heading into the 2024 season are unlike what we’ve seen for recent active years. Grain of salt for these but anything close to this speaks for itself. Gotta watch the SAL and TUTTS. Two cane killers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Turning out to be a nice day in Ashburnham I've been to a music festival a couple of times from near that spot I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I've been to a music festival a couple of times from near that spot I think Isn’t that his in-laws yard? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Lots of rain moving up the coast. Radar looking very healthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lots of rain moving up the coast. Radar looking very healthy. More healthy then any potential snow event up here this winter anyways, You guys cashed down there on a good event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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