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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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Can you imagine being a lone astronaut traveling at sub-relativistic speeds in the year 2450 ... The Earth is no more after the Quantum Computing Core came into nexus with AI ... and those seemingly lone survivors who were cut ties, they are now technological relics counting down their resources, praying that a habitable world, uncharted, might materialized out of the fog of infinite distances - probably around some uncatalogued red dwarf.  2 or 3 years light time beyond our solar system, maybe just for sanity's sake alone ... they still log their reports.  When the reality is there's no one left to receive the message. 

That's what posting in this thread is like right now. LOL

The models alone and in blend, look like this system is occurring on the gateway into milder regime flushing over mid latitude continent.  Milder and more spring-like.  The 850 mb may still have pockets of cool, or even cool (less like frigid) incursions from the N. But they are no longer back built off a -EPO loaded, -850 mb temperature anomaly mass ...

The teleconnectors actually compliment this notion well.  With said -EPO gonzo by even early this week.  Neutralized and modestly positive from all three ens systems, ECM/GEF/GEP for the foreseeable future out to the end of the runs.   The PNA is neutral-negative.  This would ( and may in fact) be a foundation for actually driving positive temperature anomalies over the eastern continental mid latitudes.  However, we may have to deal with a west based -NAO - less certain.  The upshot for spring enthusiasts is that the cold over the Canadian shield by then has lost entirely to a modest +anomaly baseline. I.e., won't be as bad.  

Considering also the calendar, this may in fact be the last winter event of this season that doesn't require a fluke/bowler event.

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Can you imagine being a lone astronaut traveling at sub-relativistic speeds in the year 2450 ... The Earth is no more after the Quantum Computing Core came into nexus with AI ... and those seemingly lone survivors who were cut ties, they are now technological relics counting down their resources, praying that a habitable world, uncharted, might materialized out of the fog of infinite distances - probably around some uncatalogued red dwarf.  2 or 3 years light time beyond our solar system, maybe just for sanity's sake alone ... they still log their reports.  When the reality is there's no one left to receive the message. 

That's what posting in this thread is like right now. LOL

The models alone and in blend, look like this system is occurring on the gateway into milder regime flushing over mid latitude continent.  Milder and more spring-like.  The 850 mb may still have pockets of cool, or even cool (less like frigid) incursions from the N. But they are no longer back built off a -EPO loaded, -850 mb temperature anomaly mass ...

The teleconnectors actually compliment this notion well.  With said -EPO gonzo by even early this week.  Neutralized and modestly positive from all three ens systems, ECM/GEF/GEP for the foreseeable future out to the end of the runs.   The PNA is neutral-negative.  This would ( and may in fact) be a foundation for actually driving positive temperature anomalies over the eastern continental mid latitudes.  However, we may have to deal with a west based -NAO - less certain.  The upshot for spring enthusiasts is that the cold over the Canadian shield by then has lost entirely to a modest +anomaly baseline. I.e., won't be as bad.  

Considering also the calendar, this may in fact be the last winter event of this season that doesn't require a fluke/bowler event.

Gfs is computing differently so we’ll see. 

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28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs is computing differently so we’ll see. 

Actually it isn't - As I said, we might have to deal with a -NAO as an option, too.  It's weird the model summarily prints that out. Geez.

 

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2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

yeah rest of March sucks, just like 2012. Looks better for Napril

Models going ham with a strong west based -NAO

Snow for C/NNE probably ain't done and spring is on hold for a while. 

Maybe by mid April things warm up. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models going ham with a strong west based -NAO

Snow for C/NNE probably ain't done and spring is on hold for a while. 

Maybe by mid April things warm up. 

Models have been wrong all winter on -NAO and blocking. They show it and it doesn’t happen as we get closer. Same thing again here 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We warned, we tried.

Yup, at least I never forecasted warmth just wishcasted (which didn’t work).  Can’t wait to freeze my ass off the next 3 weeks with 3 travel baseball tournaments! 
 

This cold snap is fitting with last years, hopefully we go very warm by mid April again! 

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Yeah the so-called torch has turned to a flicker. Boston temperature anomalies now half of what it was in 2012.

I really wish this had been flipped. Would have loved this to start the month. 

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58 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yup, at least I never forecasted warmth just wishcasted (which didn’t work).  Can’t wait to freeze my ass off the next 3 weeks with 3 travel baseball tournaments! 
 

This cold snap is fitting with last years, hopefully we go very warm by mid April again! 

Mjo finally going into p8 like this time last year 

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