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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully the tropics ramp up in June...until then its Fantasy Baseball and yard work.

Tropics are my least knowledgeable area so I'm not entirely sure what to expect. 

I mean naturally, if we're progressing towards La Nina you would expect an above-average season. While I don't think the warm waters factors into that aspect, the already well above-average waters are concerning in that should storms develop, they will have alot of fuel available. 

Then of course we'll have to see the prospects for landfalling storms.

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8 minutes ago, 512high said:

That will be impressive, I'm at my shop ASH, hvy clouds, Davis sitting at 45F....

A little cloudy screw zone down there. We’re going to need a little mixing though. Miller St Park is mid 50s at over 2kft. 
image.png

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

A little cloudy screw zone down there. We’re going to need a little mixing though. Miller St Park is mid 50s at over 2kft. 
image.png

Yup, screw zone for snow, heavy winds too (ha ha)

I do see a few breaks, I can see where I might start to jump the temps

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Tropics are my least knowledgeable area so I'm not entirely sure what to expect. 

I mean naturally, if we're progressing towards La Nina you would expect an above-average season. While I don't think the warm waters factors into that aspect, the already well above-average waters are concerning in that should storms develop, they will have alot of fuel available. 

Then of course we'll have to see the prospects for landfalling storms.

Think of it in terms of winter....the warm waters are analagous to well placed surface high pressure....doesn't matter if the upper levels are hostile.

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37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, no one expected this warmth....Raindance was closest, but even he was too cool. Bluewave seemed to have the right idea, but he only does 2 week increments, which is probably part of the secret to his sucess. lol

I wonder if with our level of technology, modelling, and training/education, if that 2 week amount is the edge of realistic forecasting.  

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12z NAM coming to Earth re tonight and tomorrow morning.. A little less QPF ( altho, given the southern origin of this disturbance that was the least of my questions - ), and less cold air.

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z NAM coming to Earth re tonight and tomorrow morning.. A little less QPF ( altho, given the southern origin of this disturbance that was the least of my questions - ), and less cold air.

 

That's good... it was really juiced earlier.  Not shocked at the warmer look

Edit: Still a large swath with 2"+ of qpf.    

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Ha,  JMA model ( yesterday's 12z over at Trop TBs) had a fierce winter storm with big snow implied.

'Course with that model's illustrations looking so coarse, combined with being bad  -

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6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Red Wing blackbirds have made their first appearance. Seems a bit early.

You must know that pond with cattails off of exit 19 up here. I saw my first RWBB yesterday perched on one. 
 

And for @eekuasepinniWI had my first white throated sparrows last week 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha,  JMA model ( yesterday's 12z over at Trop TBs) had a fierce winter storm with big snow implied.

'Course with that model's illustrations looking so coarse, combined with being bad  -

Hey, maybe we get another Feb 2006 miracle...it nailed that in the face of a resistant consensus.

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z NAM coming to Earth re tonight and tomorrow morning.. A little less QPF ( altho, given the southern origin of this disturbance that was the least of my questions - ), and less cold air.

 

3k has 2.75 here 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Look I expect it to snow here again this season…probably multiple times. We’ll probably pull a couple of days BN this month too. But this is transition season and I’m treating it like we’re 2 weeks ahead of schedule based on how far ahead of climo most of the CONUS and southern Can are. Albedo is way down and the frost line is way north. 

Possibly even more, About to set the all time record for earliest ice out here at Lake Auburn, 03/23/2010 is the record earliest, I'm betting its gone in the next 10 days.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some seem to forget Feb 13th to 21st was BN with snow cover. Models advertised it . I think 16th to 23rd BN with a snow event. Why is that getting the doomer replies? There is support for it across multiple models 

Don’t bother anymore Steve.  Most want to go with persistence and CC lol. It may never snow again.  

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Because I am nerd ...the following appeals to me.

Friday will be an interesting ( well, might be, sun depending -) challenge for machine/MOS to get the high temperature right.

That looks like glass of powered bust, just add sun- juice.    Light NW regional d-slope wind, with nearly unobstructed sun post the morning murk evaporation ... through 850's +2 or 3C.  Mm, guessing the 51 at KFIT-KASH in both MAV/MET will be too conserved

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully the tropics ramp up in June...until then its Fantasy Baseball and yard work.

High end activity will probably be hard given climo but the last decade suggests we see some pre/early season activity.

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Tropics are my least knowledgeable area so I'm not entirely sure what to expect. 

I mean naturally, if we're progressing towards La Nina you would expect an above-average season. While I don't think the warm waters factors into that aspect, the already well above-average waters are concerning in that should storms develop, they will have alot of fuel available. 

Then of course we'll have to see the prospects for landfalling storms.

Warm waters are an important factor, though often oversimplified. If the trend continues we’re looking at off the charts warmth in the Atlantic basin—it’s not just absolute SSTs but the extent of warm anomalies and depth across the MDR. It’s historic in its own right.

Here are OHC values from two eventual historic seasons—2017, 2020…and today. 

HDYjiXo.jpeg
 

QEKvW7x.jpeg
 

BRhC1KE.jpg

The AMO configuration looks big time. That can feedback into weaker trades. The Nina is huge obviously for reducing shear across the MDR. We have to watch SAL activity in June/July. Our big seasons tend to have activity at least trying further east during the summer.

ytqZF9v.jpeg

Obviously let’s get to later in the spring to say it’s all systems go but I think we’re looking at a top ten season at least. The factors suggesting activity heading into the 2024 season are unlike what we’ve seen for recent active years. 

Grain of salt for these but anything close to this speaks for itself. 

i8i0roB.png
 

gTf2PM0.png

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32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

High end activity will probably be hard given climo but the last decade suggests we see some pre/early season activity.

Warm waters are an important factor, though often oversimplified. If the trend continues we’re looking at off the charts warmth in the Atlantic basin—it’s not just absolute SSTs but the extent of warm anomalies and depth across the MDR. It’s historic in its own right.

Here are OHC values from two eventual historic seasons—2017, 2020…and today. 

HDYjiXo.jpeg
 

QEKvW7x.jpeg
 

BRhC1KE.jpg

The AMO configuration looks big time. That can feedback into weaker trades. The Nina is huge obviously for reducing shear across the MDR. We have to watch SAL activity in June/July. Our big seasons tend to have activity at least trying further east during the summer.

ytqZF9v.jpeg

Obviously let’s get to later in the spring to say it’s all systems go but I think we’re looking at a top ten season at least. The factors suggesting activity heading into the 2024 season are unlike what we’ve seen for recent active years. 

Grain of salt for these but anything close to this speaks for itself. 

i8i0roB.png
 

gTf2PM0.png

Gotta watch the SAL and TUTTS. Two cane killers.

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lots of rain moving up the coast.  Radar looking very healthy. 

More healthy then any potential snow event up here this winter anyways, You guys cashed down there on a good event.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

And for @eekuasepinniWI had my first white throated sparrows last week 

Nice. I've actually had a couple of them stay all winter for the first time, but I only see them when it's snowing and other food sources are freshly covered.  Still no singing from them, but the titmouses and cardinals are in full spring singing mode.  Some good yellow patches on the gold finches were spotted about a week ago.

 

 

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